We have had a great back and forth duel so far this season between man and machine. I took the early lead in Week 1 with the machine catching back up in Week 2. For Week 3, I am proud to say that I brought home the “W” for man! After a horrendous Week 2 showing, I bounced back well in Week 3 going 11-4 straight up and 12-3 against the spread while still struggling to get a handle on over/unders. It was very close with the machine putting up a 9-4 record against the spread as well. All in all, I went 18-11 (62%) when combining ATS/OU picks while the machine finished 13-13 (50%).
Now that we have three weeks in the books, it should help us identify trends better as we have a large enough sample size for most teams to know what quality of play we can expect from them on both sides of the ball. There will always continue to be upsets and blowouts as there is every season, but we are off to a good start so far and should continue to pick up steam as the season goes on. Without further ado, let’s get to our Week 4 picks!
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Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically this head-to-head series is tied 7-7
- The Falcons have won their last two matchups against the Titans.
- These teams last met on October 25, 2015, at Tennessee where the Falcons won 10-7.
- In their last matchup, Matt Ryan threw for 251 yards with one TD and two INTs. Devonta Freeman ran for 116 yards. Julio Jones had nine catches for 92 yards and one TD.
- Matt Ryan is 2-0 in his career against the Titans.
- Marcus Mariota has a 14.3% pressured completion percentage this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-worst amongst QBs.
- Derrick Henry has evaded 25 tackles this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — third-most amongst RBs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes four times this season — tied for second-most in NFL
The Falcons defense has allowed five rushing TDs this season — tied for second-most in NFL - The Titans defense has not forced a fumble this season.
- The Falcons are averaging 20 PPG so far this season.
- The Titans have allowed an average of only 17.3 PPG so far this season.
- The Titans are averaging 22.3 PPG so far this season.
- The Falcons have allowed an average of 25 PPG so far this season.
- Both teams are 1-2 ATS this season.
Both the Titans and Falcons have underwhelmed to start the season with each team sporting a 1-2 record through the first three weeks. The Titans are looking to bounce back after an especially disappointing loss last week against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football where their offense only managed seven points thanks to Derrick Henry. Marcus Mariota couldn’t stay upright to save his life, taking nine sacks in that game. There is potential for the Titans to take advantage of a banged-up Falcons secondary that will be without Keanu Neal. Derrick Henry could also have some success on the ground if the passing game can’t get anything going. The Falcons gave up 111 yards and two TDs to Dalvin Cook in Week 1 and also gave up 74 yards and a TD to Marlon Mack last week.
The Falcons will rely on Matt Ryan’s ability to play at a higher level at home to pull off a victory here. Their team has a better offense overall, but the running game has been nonexistent to start the season. This won’t be the week to expect that to change as the Titans run defense has been amongst the toughest in the league so far this season. It will all rely on Ryan to get it done this week and he has been putting up the volume with three straight games over 300 yards to open the season and at least two TDs in each game so far. The game will be close enough for the Titans to cover in my opinion, but I am giving the straight-up win to the home team with the better offense.
My Final Prediction: Falcons win 23-20
My Pick: Titans +4, Under 45.5
Machine Pick: Falcons -4, Under 45.5
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Ravens lead the head-to-head series 30-10.
- The Ravens have won eight of their last 10 games against the Browns.
- These teams last faced each other on December 30th, 2018, at Baltimore where the Ravens won 26-24.
- In their last matchup against the Ravens, Baker Mayfield threw for 376 yards with three TDs and three INTs. He threw for over 300 yards in each of his two contests. Jarvis Landry had five catches for 102 yards and one TD. Nick Chubb had only 24 rushing yards on nine carries.
- In their last matchup against the Browns, The Ravens combined for 299 rushing yards with two rushing TDs. Lamar Jackson had 90 of those rushing yards and both TDs.
- Nick Chubb has seen a light box on 58.6% of his carries according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-most amongst RBs.
- Mark Ingram has a 55.1% juke rate this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-best amongst RBs
- Mark Andrews has 178 total air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-most amongst TEs
- The Browns have averaged 105.7 penalty yards per game this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 60.8
- The Ravens have run 223 plays this season — most in NFL
- The Ravens have scored on 61.3% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34.7%
- The Ravens are averaging 36.7 PPG so far this season — most in NFL
- The Browns have allowed an average of 22 PPG so far this season.
- The Browns are averaging only 16.3 PPG so far this season — tied for fifth-fewest
- The Ravens have allowed an average of 20 PPG this season.
- The Ravens are 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Browns are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Browns were 2-0 ATS vs the Ravens last season.
The Browns still haven’t lived up to their preseason hype while the Ravens have completed exceeded expectations already. The interesting part of this matchup is that if these team’s schedules were flipped, their early-season narratives would probably be completely opposite. The Ravens have been graced with a cupcake schedule to open the season while the Browns faced two tough defenses so far against the Titans and Rams. The Browns defense has also been completely beaten up dealing with injuries early on. They have the talent on offense, they just haven’t quite tapped into it yet. Another tough matchup here against a tough defense on the road is going to make it hard for an offensive breakout from the Browns. I also expect Freddie Kitchens to be severely out-coached in this one going up against John Harbaugh.
The Ravens will look to keep building on their early-season momentum at home and exploit this vulnerable defense. The Browns kept it close the last time these two teams met losing by only one, but this Ravens offense seems much improved since that matchup while the Browns offense doesn’t really seem to have taken that step yet.
My Final Prediction: Ravens win 28-20
My Pick: Ravens -7, Over 45
Machine Pick: Browns +7, Under 45
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Patriots lead the head-to-head series 73-43-1.
- The Patriots are 15-3 against the Bills dating back to 2010 and 8-1 at Buffalo during that span.
- The Bills have scored 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games against the Pats.
- The Patriots have outscored the Bills by a combined total of 109-37 over their last four matchups.
- These teams last met on December 23, 2018, at New England where the Pats won 24-12.
- In their last matchup against the Bills, Tom Brady threw for only 126 yards with one TD and two INTs. Sony Michel had 18 carries for 116 yards and one TD. James White rushed for 41 yards and one TD. Julian Edelman had six catches for 70 yards and one TD.
- In their last matchup against the Pats, Josh Allen threw for 217 yards with one TD and two INTs. Zay Jones had five catches for 67 yards and one TD.
- Tom Brady is 30-3 in his career against the Bills. Two of those losses came on the road.
- In his last four games against the Bills, Tom Brady has a 3/4 TD: INT ratio and has been sacked eight times. He hasn’t thrown a single TD at Buffalo in his last two games there.
- Julian Edelman has either scored a TD or managed over 100 receiving yards in his last three matchups against the Bills.
- Phillip Dorsett has averaged 3.32 yards of target separation this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst WRs
- Rex Burkhead has scored 1.72 fantasy points per attempt this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst RBs.
- Josh Allen has a 69.4% protection rate this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — worst amongst QBs
- The Patriots defense has hurried opposing QBs on 16.0% of dropbacks this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.0%
- Frank Gore has seen a stacked box on 45.5% of his carries according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst RBs
- The Patriots defense has allowed 110 rushing yards this season — fewest in NFL
- The Patriots are averaging 35.3 PPG so far this season — second-most in NFL
- The Bills have allowed an average of only 15.7 PPG so far this season — fifth-fewest in NFL
- The Bills are averaging 22 PPG this season.
- The Patriots have only allowed an average of 5.7 PPG this season — fewest in NFL.
- Both teams are 3-0 ATS this season.
- The Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS against the Bills over their last 10 matchups.
There are some interesting negative trends in this game looking at Tom Brady’s past struggles against the Bills in Buffalo. I don’t think it’s enough to sway an upset, but it is worth noting especially when considering the over/under. The Pats continue to look lights out this year but they too have had a pretty easy schedule to open the season. The Bills defense have helped propel this team to their 3-0 record, but there will likely be a bit of an awakening this week going up against Belichick and Brady.
The Pats are masters of taking away a team’s best talent, which is tough to pinpoint in this matchup, but it’s possible they smother John Brown in coverage and force the Bills to win via either the run game or the short/intermediate passing game. The Bills have the ability to run it all day, especially if rookie Devin Singletary can get back on the field, but having success running could be difficult as the Pats have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league this season. A lack of explosive playmakers in the short/intermediate game for the Bills will also hurt them. These teams are far apart as far as overall experience and talent is concerned and the outcome of the game shouldn’t be too shocking.
My Final Prediction: Patriots win 24-14
My Pick: Patriots -7.5, Under 42.5
Machine Pick: Push, Under 42.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Chiefs lead the head-to-head series 8-5
- These teams haven’t met since November 1st, 2015 at Wembley Stadium, UK where the Chiefs won 45-10.
- In their last matchup against the Chiefs, Matthew Stafford threw for 217 yards with one TD and two INTs while taking six sacks.
- In their last matchup against the Lions, Travis Kelce had six catches for 49 yards and one TD.
- Pat Mahomes has averaged 342 passing yards and 3.5 TDs per game on the road. This is his first career game in a dome.
- Pat Mahomes has a 69.6% pressured completion percentage this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — highest of all QBs
- Matthew Stafford has 551 air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — fourth-most amongst QBs
- The Chiefs secondary has not missed a tackle this season — fewest in NFL
- The Chiefs have averaged 24.7 points per game in the first half this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.8
- The Chiefs are averaging 33.7 PPG so far this season — third-most in NFL
- The Lions have allowed an average of 20.3 PPG this season.
- The Lions are averaging 22.3 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed an average of 21.3 PPG so far this season.
- The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS this season.
- The Lions are 2-0-1 ATS this season.
My Final Prediction: Chiefs win 38-27
My Pick: Chiefs -6.5, Over 54.5
Machine Pick: Chiefs -6.5, Over 54.5
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically this head-to-head series is tied 2-2.
- These teams haven’t met since September 20th, 2015 in Carolina where the Panthers won 24-17.
- Christian McCaffrey has seen a stacked box on 35.6% of his carries this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — fourth-most amongst RBs
- Christian McCaffrey has 168 total yards created this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst RBs
- D.J. Moore has a 100% contested catch rate (5/5) this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst WRs
- Greg Olsen has 164 air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — third-most amongst TEs
- Deshaun Watson is averaging 5.7 air yards per attempt this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — third-most amongst QBs
- Carlos Hyde has created 2.2 yards per attempt this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — eighth-most amongst RBs
- The Panthers defense has allowed 200 yards after contact this season — most in NFL
- The Panthers defensive line has missed seven tackles this season — tied for second-most in NFL
- The Panthers have faced a blitz 39 times this season — most in NFL
- The Texans defense has stuffed seven rushing attempts this season — second-fewest in NFL
- The Texans defense has forced five fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL
- The Panthers are averaging 26.3 PPG this season — sixth-most in NFL
- The Texans have allowed an average of 20.7 PPG this season.
- The Texans are averaging 22.7 PPG this season.
- The Panthers have allowed an average of 23.3 PPG this season.
- The Panthers are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 2-1 ATS this season.
Kyle Allen had his breakout party ruined last week by the takeover in New York by Daniel Jones. Allen electrified a Panthers offense that had struggled mightily so far under Cam Newton. We will get a better idea if Allen is the real deal or not this week against a Texans defense that is much more fierce than the Cardinals. Christian McCaffrey will be key in the short passing game as usual, but it’s an area the Texans have struggled with historically defending against the pass to RBs.
A key for the Texans will be keeping Deshaun Watson on his feet. The Panthers got Kyler Murray for eight sacks last week and Watson has been no stranger to finding himself on his back in games. Still, I feel pretty comfortable taking the Texans here, especially coming off an impressive road win. With so much uncertainty around the true ability of the Panthers offense right now, it’s hard to even consider them covering.
My Final Prediction: Texans win 27-20
My Pick: Texans -4.5, Under 47.5
Machine Pick: Panthers +4.5, Push O/U
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Raiders lead the head-to-head series 8-7.
- The Raiders have lost five of their last six matchups against the Colts.
- These teams last met on October 28th, 2018 at Oakland where the Colts won 42-28.
- In their last matchup against the Raiders, Marlon Mack rushed 25 times for 132 yards and two TDs. Jack Doyle was the leading receiver with six catches for 70 yards and one TD. Eric Ebron and Mo Allie-Cox both scored TDs as well giving Indy TEs the only receiving scores of the day.
- In their last matchup against the Colts, Derek Carr threw for 244 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Jalen Richard had eight catches for 50 yards.
- Derek Carr has a 6/0 TD: INT ratio in two career games against the Colts.
- Darren Waller has a 30.2% target share this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst TEs
- Marlon Mack has 162 yards created this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst RBs.
- The Raiders defense has no interceptions and six TD passes allowed this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.3
- The Raiders defense has sacked opponents three times in the red zone this season — most in NFL
- The Raiders are averaging only 16 PPG so far this season — fourth-fewest in NFL
- The Colts have allowed an average of 23.7 PPG this season.
- The Colts are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
- The Raiders have allowed an average of 26 PPG this season.
- The Raiders are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Colts are 2-1 ATS this season.
The Raiders were awful on the road last season and it looks like that trend is set to continue this season after they got beat 34-14 by the Vikings last week. On the other side, the Colts and Jacoby Brissett have been nothing short of impressive to open the season without Andrew Luck around. The Colts are really just one missed field goal from sitting at 3-0 right now. Brissett has taken care of the ball well and the Raiders offer nothing intimidating as far as a pass rush is concerned. The Colts also look to have a more established running game right now with Marlon Mack. The Raiders could take advantage of the Colts’ sub-par run defense but their passing offense has looked nowhere near as impressive as it did in Week 1 against the Broncos. Until the Raiders get back in Oakland it’s hard to see them winning a game comfortably.
My Final Prediction: Colts win 26-14
My Pick: Colts -6.5, Under 45
Machine Pick: Colts -6.5, Over 45
Los Angeles Chargers (-15.5) at Miami Dolphins
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Dolphins lead the head-to-head series 16-13.
- The Chargers have lost four of their last five games against the Dolphins.
- These teams haven’t met since September 17, 2017, at Los Angeles where the Dolphins won 19-17.
- In their last matchup against the Dolphins, Philip Rivers threw for 331 yards with one TD and no INTs. Keenan Allen had nine catches for 100 yards.
- In their last matchup against the Chargers, DeVante Parker had four catches for 85 yards.
- Philip Rivers is 3-5 in his career against the Dolphins and is 0-3 in matchups at Miami. He has a career 10/10 TD: INT ratio against them.
- Philip Rivers’ targets have dropped 10 passes this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most in NFL.
- Austin Ekeler has scored 2.05 fantasy points per attempt this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst RBs
- Keenan Allen has 298 total air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst WRs
- Josh Rosen has a passer rating of just 14.5 at home (21 Pass Attempts) this season — lowest of 31 qualified QBs; League Avg: 90.1
- Miami Dolphins WRs have caught just 30 of 71 passes (42.3%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 63.1%
- The Dolphins defense has allowed 16 TDs this season — most in NFL
- The Dolphins defense has allowed 209.3 rushing yards per game this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 109.1
- The Chargers are averaging 20 PPG this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed an average of 44.3 PPG this season — most in NFL
- The Dolphins are averaging 5.3 PPG this season — fewest in NFL
- The Chargers have allowed an average of 21.3 PPG this season.
- The Chargers are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS this season.
There’s really not much insight needed for teams facing the Dolphins this season. They’re atrocious. Even the offensive players who have been semi-impressive in the past seem to be regressing. While the Chargers have a flair for dramatic losses and Philip Rivers does have some concerning career trends against the Dolphins, there is just no way we see an upset here.
My Final Prediction: Chargers win 36-13
My Pick: Chargers -15.5, Over 44
Machine Pick: Chargers -15.5, Over 44
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Giants lead the head-to-head series 100-68-4.
- The combined total points scored has been under 35 points in four of the last five matchups.
- These teams last met on December 9th, 2018 at Washington where the Giants won 40-16.
- In their last matchup against the Redskins, Evan Engram had three catches for 77 yards. Sterling Shepard had two catches for 17 yards and one TD.
- Sterling Shepard has only topped 35 receiving yards once in four career matchups against the Redskins.
- Evan Engram has only topped 25 receiving yards once in three career matchups against the Redskins.
- Wayne Gallman has four games against the Redskins in his career, he has totaled 163 yards on 39 carries (4.2 YPA) with no TDs.
- Chris Thompson has 195 receiving yards this season — second-most amongst RBs
- Chris Thompson has gained 175 yards after the catch this season — third-most amongst RBs
- The Giants linebackers have not missed a tackle this season.
- The Giants defense has allowed 267.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 175.4
- The Redskins defense has allowed 9 TD passes this season — tied for 2nd most in NFL
- The Giants and Redskins are both averaging 21 PPG this season.
- The Giants and Redskins have both allowed an average of 31.3 PPG this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
- The Redskins are 0-3 ATS this season.
- The Giants are 1-2 ATS this season.
What looked like a terrible matchup to look forward to just a week ago has suddenly been given new life. The Danny Dimes era has officially begun in New York and his first start will come against one of the team’s division rivals. The storyline would have been given a boost if Dwayne Haskins were starting for the ‘Skins, but it sounds like Case Keenum should be good to go.
The offensive boost for the Giants would have been more impressive if the team hadn’t lost franchise-star Saquon Barkley to a sprained ankle last week. This will put a lot of volume onto the shoulders of Jones most likely as we can’t expect the likes of Wayne Gallman to come anywhere near the production we have seen from Barkley.
The Redskins have been better than expected on offense this season with Keenum under center and he has had help from a rookie as well with Terry McLaurin looking like a potential true WR1 for the team. The fact that both teams average the exact same points for and points against so far this season is a little bizarre, so I’ll take the home team with heavy momentum on their side here.
My Final Prediction: Giants win 27-21
My Pick: Giants -3, Under 49.5
Machine Pick: Redskins +3, Over 49.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Seahawks lead the head-to-head series 20-19-1.
- The Seahawks have either won or tied each of their last six matchups at Arizona dating back to 2013.
- Five of the last six matchups between these teams have been decided by three points or less.
- These teams last met on December 30th, 2018 at Seattle where the Seahawks won 27-24.
- In their last matchup against the Cardinals, Russell Wilson threw for only 152 yards with one TD and one INT while taking six sacks. Chris Carson rushed 19 times for 122 yards and one TD. Tyler Lockett had two catches for 66 yards and one TD.
- In their last matchup against the Seahawks, David Johnson ran for only 62 yards on 17 carries adding three catches for six yards. Larry Fitzgerald caught four passes for 36 yards and one TD.
- Russell Wilson has thrown for less than 200 yards in six-of-14 career games against the Cardinals while taking 45 sacks over that span. He also has a 22/5 TD:INT ratio.
- Chris Carson has five breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards) this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst RBs
- Tyler Lockett has 146 receiving yards in close and late situations this season — most amongst WRs
- David Johnson has a career average of only 3.3 YPA against the Seahawks over five career starts with four rushing TDs, three of which came in one game.
- David Johnson has seen a light box on 63.9% of his carries this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst RBs.
- Larry Fitzgerald has six TDs over his last seven home games.
- Arizona Cardinals WRs have 63 receptions this season — most in NFL
- Arizona Cardinals WRs have not dropped a ball this season.
- The Cardinals defense has no interceptions and nine TD passes allowed this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.3
- The Cardinals defense has forced five fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL
- The Seahawks are averaging 25.3 PPG this season.
- The Cardinals have allowed an average of 29.3 PPG this season — fourth-most in NFL.
- The Cardinals are averaging 21.3 PPG this season.
- The Seahawks have allowed an average of 26.3 PPG this season.
- The Seahawks are 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Cardinals are 0-2-1 ATS this season.
Each of these teams has been let down a bit by their defenses this season while their offenses have struggled to keep up at times. The Cardinals have a good excuse as they’re led by young, inexperienced talents at both head coach and QB. The Seahawks barely escaped with a win against the Bengals and Steelers in Weeks 1 and 2, then got beat by a Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints offense last week despite Russell Wilson throwing for just over 400 yards. The matchup should be much easier this week for Seattle as the Cardinals just let Kyle Allen have his way with them in his rookie debut. While I see the Seahawks getting a win here, you can’t rely on them to beat anyone handily right now making the Cards +6 an attractive pick.
My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 26-24
My Pick: Cardinals +6, Over 48
Machine Pick: Cardinals +6, Push O/U
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-9)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Rams lead the head-to-head series 14-8.
- The Bucs have lost five straight games against the Rams.
- The Bucs are 1-8 on the road against the Rams as a franchise dating back to 1977. Their last win on the road against the Rams came in 2001.
- These teams last met on September 25th, 2016 at TB where the Rams won 37-32.
- In their last matchup against the Rams, Jameis Winston threw for 405 yards with three TDs and one INT. Mike Evans had 10 catches for 132 yards and one TD. Cameron Brate had five catches for 46 yards and two TDs.
- Todd Gurley rushed 27 times for 85 yards and two TDs in his last matchup against the Bucs.
- Los Angeles Rams RBs have 18 receiving yards this season — fewest in NFL
- Jameis Winston has totaled 768 yards with five TDs and two INTs in just two career games against the Rams (Avg. 384/2.5/1).
- Mike Evans has stat lines of 9/157 and 10/132/1 in his last two matchups against the Rams.
- Jared Goff has a 14.3% deep ball passing completion percentage this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-worst amongst qualified QBs
- Jared Goff has thrown eight interceptable passes this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — tied for most in NFL
- The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 44 times this season — most in NFL
- The Rams are averaging 25.7 PPG this season.
- The Bucs have allowed an average of 25.7 PPG this season.
- The Bucs are averaging 22.7 PPG this season.
- The Rams have allowed an average of only 16.3 PPG this season.
- The Bucs are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Rams are 3-0 ATS this season.
The Rams are coming into this week with a 3-0 record but haven’t quite looked like they’re firing on all cylinders just yet. Luckily for them, the Bucs have the cure for what ails them. The Bucs are coming off an incredibly disappointing loss against the Giants where they blew an 18 point lead in the second half of the game. Jameis Winston is not a good QB, and while Bruce Arians is a great coach, he might not be able to turn this one around. I like the Bucs to put up ugly volume at the least and try and keep pace with the Rams, but there is no way you can expect them to play well on the road right now against a defending Super Bowl contender.
My Final Prediction: Rams win 28-20
My Pick: Bucs +9, Under 49.5
Machine Pick: Bucs +9, Over 49.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Vikings lead the head-to-head series 60-53-2.
- The Vikings have lost their last two matchups against the Bears.
- The Vikings have lost six of their last eight games at Chicago and scored less than 14 points in four of those games.
- These teams last met on December 30th, 2018 at Minnesota where the Bears won 24-10.
- In their last head-to-head matchup, Mitch Trubisky and Kirk Cousins combined for only 295 passing yards. Cousins had one TD, Trubisky had none.
- In their last matchup against the Vikings, Bears RBs accounted for all three of the team’s TDs with Tarik Cohen grabbing one. Taylor Gabriel led the team in receiving with four catches for 61 yards.
- In their last matchup against the Bears, Dalvin Cook managed only 60 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches. Stefon Diggs had eight catches for 47 yards and one TD.
- Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t thrown for more than 178 passing yards and has a 2/3 TD:INT ratio in four career games against the Vikings.
- Allen Robinson has only four catches for 56 yards in two career games against the Vikings.
- Kirk Cousins has a 5-26 career record against teams with a winning record.
- Stefon Diggs has scored seven TDs in seven career games against the Bears.
- Adam Thielen has only one TD in seven career games where he was targeted against the Bears while also being held to 68 yards or less.
- Minnesota Vikings WRs have 19 receptions this season — fewest in NFL
- Dalvin Cook has been held to 51 rushing yards on 20 carries in two career games against the Bears.
- Dalvin Cook has six breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards) this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst RBs.
- The Bears defense has not allowed any 20+ yard rushes this season — tied for fewest in NFL
- The Vikings are averaging 26 PPG this season.
- The Bears have allowed an average of only 13 PPG this season — third-fewest in NFL.
- The Bears are averaging 16.7 PPG this season.
- The Vikings have allowed an average of only 15.7 PPG this season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.
- Both teams are 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Vikings.
This game has the looks of an old school defensive struggle. Both passing offenses are nonexistent, both teams offer strong defenses, and the Vikes offer a very strong running game. This game feels like it will basically come down to which defense can turn the ball over the most and can Dalvin Cook continue his hot streak against a Bears team he has struggled against in the past. Low scores on both sides are obviously expected and with a small spread, I’m leaning towards the slightly stronger defense at home. The Bears offense also showed us a little bit more life last week.
My Final Prediction: Bears win 17-14
My Pick: Bears -2, Under 38
Machine Pick: Vikings +2, Push O/U
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the head-to-head series is tied 5-5.
- These teams last met on December 4th, 2016 at Jacksonville where the Broncos won 20-10.
- Joe Flacco has attempted 22 passes in the red zone this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — second-most amongst QBs
- Emmanuel Sanders has eight red-zone targets and five end-zone targets this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst WRs
- Leonard Fournette has a 96.9% opportunity share this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — best amongst RBs
- Leonard Fournette has averaged 2.6 yards after contact per carry (43 carries) this season — second-best of 43 qualified RBs; League Avg: 0.9
- D.J. Chark has 238 total air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — third-most amongst WRs
- Jaguars linebackers have missed 10 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL
- The Jaguars defense has sacked opponents 13 times this season — tied for most in NFL
- The Broncos defense has not recorded a sack this season.
- The Broncos defense has pressured opposing QBs four times this season — fewest in NFL
- The Jaguars are averaging 19.3 PPG this season.
- The Broncos have allowed an average of 22.3 PPG this season.
- The Broncos are averaging 15.3 PPG this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed an average of 20 PPG this season.
- The Jags are 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Broncos are 0-3 ATS this season.
This is another matchup that could have a fairly low scoring total based on the implied combined total points. Gardner Minshew has turned into a media sensation and proven capable enough to keep this team afloat while Nick Foles is out. The Broncos defense hasn’t put up a fight at all yet this season but Denver at least offers one of the more difficult locations to play at as a visiting team.
Joe Flacco and the Broncos offense hasn’t really clicked yet and considering their defensive struggles as well, it is hard to see them as favorites to me against a Jags team that has some swag to it right now. I think the Jags have the edge on both sides of the ball right now and it should be just enough to upset as underdogs on the road this week.
My Final Prediction: Jaguars win 21-17
My Pick: Jaguars +3.5, Over 37.5
Machine Pick: Push
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Cowboys lead the head-to-head series 17-12.
- The Cowboys have lost nine of their last 12 games against the Saints dating back to 1998.
- These teams last met on November 29th, 2018 at Dallas where the Cowboys won 13-10.
- In their last matchup against the Cowboys, Alvin Kamara had 72 scoreless yards from scrimmage on 19 touches. Michael Thomas had five catches for 40 yards.
- In their last matchup against the Saints, Dak Prescott threw for 249 yards with one TD while taking seven sacks. Ezekiel Elliott had 135 yards from scrimmage on 29 touches with one receiving TD. Amari Cooper had eight catches for 76 yards.
- Dak Prescott has completed 84.6% of his red-zone attempts this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst qualified QBs.
- The Saints defense has allowed nine TDs in the red zone this season — second-most in NFL
- Jason Witten has averaged five catches for 53.9 yards per game over nine career games against the Saints with no TDs.
- Jason Witten has five red-zone targets this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — tied for second-most amongst TEs
- Teddy Bridgewater has gained 31.6% of his total passing yards through the air this season — lowest of 34 qualified QBs; League Avg: 55.8%
- Alvin Kamara has evaded 30 tackles this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst RBs.
- The Cowboys defense has no interceptions this season.
- The Cowboys are averaging 32.3 PPG this season — fourth-most in NFL
- The Saints have allowed 27.3 PPG so far this season.
- The Saints are averaging 24 PPG this season.
- The Cowboys have allowed only 14.7 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL
- The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS this season.
- The Saints are 2-1 ATS this season.
The Cowboys are on a roll right now with over 30 points in each game to open the season. Their elite offensive line has kept Dak clean and opened all lanes needed for Zeke and even Tony Pollard ran for over 100 yards last week (it was the Dolphins). The Saints pass rush is probably the best the Cowboys have faced so far this season and the Saints are also coming into this game with some solid momentum after stealing a win against the Seahawks in Seattle last week. Teddy Bridgewater did enough to keep the team from losing while Alvin Kamara did most of the heavy lifting. That scheme didn’t work great last time these two teams met as Kamara struggled against the Cowboys and the Saints passing offense also struggled with Drew Brees under center.
The Cowboys are just the better team all-around right now and look like a serious threat to push deep into the playoffs and, dare I say a Super Bowl contender?
My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 30-21
My Pick: Cowboys -2.5, Over 47
Machine Pick: Saints +2.5, Under 47
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Matchup Notes:
- Historically the Steelers lead the head-to-head series 62-35.
- The Bengals have lost eight straight games against the Steelers including playoffs and lost 16 of their last 20.
- The Bengals have been held to 21 points or fewer in each of their last 20 games against the Steelers.
- These teams last met on December 30th, 2018 at Pittsburgh where the Steelers won 16-13.
- In their last matchup against the Steelers, Joe Mixon ran for 105 yards on 13 carries.
- In their last matchup against the Bengals, JuJu Smith-Schuster had five catches for 37 yards and one TD.
- Andy Dalton has had two passing TDs in each of his last three games against the Steelers. He has less than 200 passing yards in two of his last four games against the Steelers.
- Andy Dalton has thrown eight interceptable passes this season according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — tied for most in NFL
- Joe Mixon has averaged 6.6 YPA on 38 carries against the Steelers over four games in his career.
- Tyler Boyd is has a 100% contested catch rate this season (6/6) according to FantasyData’s efficiency metrics — most amongst WRs.
- Gio Bernard has five total TDs against the Steelers in 10 career games, three of which came on the road.
- Cincinnati Bengals RBs have rushed for 120 yards this season — second-fewest in NFL
- The Steelers defense has stuffed 23 rushing attempts this season — most in NFL
- Cincinnati Bengals WRs have 54 receptions this season — second-most in NFL
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has a TD in both career home games against the Bengals.
- The Bengals defense has allowed 8.1 yards after the catch this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.1
- The Bengals defense has allowed 508 rushing yards this season — second-most in NFL
- The Steelers are averaging 16.3 PPG this season — tied for fifth-fewest.
- The Bengals have allowed an average of 27.7 PPG this season — sixth-most in NFL
- The Bengals are averaging 18 PPG this season.
- The Steelers have allowed an average of 28.3 PPG this season — fifth-most in NFL
- Both teams are 0-3 ATS this season.
- The Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS over their last 10 matchups against the Bengals.
We end the week with a bit of a sleepy Monday night game. Though this is a heated division rivalry that the Steelers have dominated in the past, it’s just not the same without Big Ben in the mix. The Steelers have looked lost on offense this season even before Ben got hurt, but a matchup against the Bengals in prime time could be a chance for them to get right. The Bengals will look to continue pushing the ball through the air with their new-look offense that has Andy Dalton second behind Pat Mahomes with 978 passing yards so far this season. Joe Mixon also has a chance to truly break out again this week as he did the last time these teams met.
Until the Steelers show signs of the high octane offense we were used to seeing with them in the past, it’s hard to take them as a serious threat to anyone. Their defense could still help carry them, but right now I think the Bengals steal a win on the road as underdogs against their division foe.
My Final Prediction: Bengals win 24-20
My Pick: Bengals +4, Push
Machine Pick: Bengals +4, Over 44
