NFL Pick’em Week 5: Man vs Machine

NFL Pick’em Week 5

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of our weekly pick’em column where we have put man against the machine to settle the age-old question — who is smarter!? We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em. If you’re unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it’s my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine.

We have had a great back and forth battle between man and the machine this season and Week 4 was our closest contest yet! I’m happy to say that man brought home a win once again this week! I went 14-13 (52%) combining ATS and O/U while the machine went 11-11 (50%). Though man has come away with the win in three-of-four weeks so far this season, the machine holds the slightest overall edge on the season with a 46-54 (47%) record compared to my 53-61 (46%). 

Week 4 was a complete mess for picks with favorites going 7-8 straight up. There were upsets galore with the Rams, Ravens, Colts, and Texans all losing. The Rams losing was probably the biggest upset considering they were a -9.5 point favorites with a moneyline of -400. Both the machine and I are lucky to have finished anywhere near 50% in Week 4. The biggest problem also with so many crazy storylines from Week 4 is it once again puts some of these teams we thought we had a pretty good handle on back in the shadows a little bit. It will be interesting to see if these teams rebound in Week 5 or if this is the beginning of opposite trends already for both the winners and losers of last week. 

Now that we have recapped the season thus far, let’s take a look at our picks for Week 5!

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here

Chicago Bears (-5) at Oakland Raiders (in London)

Matchup Notes:

• Derek Carr threw 2+ interceptions in nine games since the 2017 season — most amongst QBs.
• The Bears defense has scored in 11 games since the 2017 season — tied for most in NFL.
• Khalil Mack has 17 sacks since last season — most among NFL linebackers.
• The Raiders defense has sacked opponents 18 times since last season — fewest in NFL.
• The Bears are averaging 16.5 points per game this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Raiders have allowed 25.5 points per game this season.
• The Raiders are averaging 19.8 points per game this season.
• The Bears have allowed 11.2 points per game this season — second-fewest in NFL.

This is the first game of the season featured in London, England.

The Bears are coming off a solid division win against the Vikings last week. The Bears held the Vikings scoreless all the way until the end of the fourth quarter when Dalvin Cook managed to find the end zone. It was another impressive win credited to the Bears defense and while they lost starting QB Mitch Trubisky in the matchup, Chase Daniel came in and managed the team fine completing 22-of-30 attempts for 195 yards and one TD. The way Trubisky has played so far this season won’t make it hard for Daniel to come in and at least match the production the Bears offense was seeing. They’ll get to face a Raiders team this week coming off a big upset against the Colts.

The Raiders jumped out to a lead early last week and never looked back. They put up 31 points on the road against what had so far been an impressive Colts unit. That was the most points the Raiders had put up on the road since Week 7 of the 2016 season. Considering the team barely managed to average over 12 points per game on the road last season also, this was a really big win in more ways than one. No matter what happened last week though, the test will be much tougher for the Raiders this week against the Bears elite defense where former Raider Khalil Mack will be looking at a big-time revenge game. Also, though the Raiders technically get home-field advantage, the matchup being in London doesn’t actually give them much of an advantage at all. The Raiders are 1-3 Internationally dating back to 2007 and haven’t scored more than eight points in either of their last two international matchups. Their last London game saw them lose 27-3 against the Seahawks last season. 

The Brits probably won’t get a very exciting matchup here this week, to be honest, as the Bears defense will smother any offensive attempts the Raiders throw at them. 

My Final Prediction: Bears win 20-10

My Pick: Bears -5, Under 40.5

Machine Pick: Bears -5, Under 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Matchup Notes

• The Jaguars defense has scored in 11 games since the 2017 season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Jaguars linebackers have missed 10 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Jalen Ramsey has allowed 34 completions since week 14 of 2018 — most among DBs.
• The Jaguars are 1-6 (.143) when within 3 points at the two-minute warning since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496
• The Panthers defense has allowed an average of 1.9 yards after contact per carry (103 carries) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 0.7
• The Panthers defense has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 13 of their 203 carries (6.4%) since week 14 of 2018 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.9%
• The Panthers defense has sacked opponents 18 times this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Christian McCaffrey has been targeted 268 times since the 2017 season — most amongst RBs. The Jaguars have allowed just 1,208 receiving yards to RBs since the 2017 season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Jaguars are averaging 21 points per game this season.
• The Panthers have allowed 20 points per game this season.
• The Panthers are averaging 23.8 points per game this season.
• The Jaguars have allowed 21 points per game this season. 

Minshew-mania continues to shine as the “stashed-one” led his team to a brilliant last-minute win last week against a Broncos team that just can’t catch a break. To be fair, we also need to give a lot of credit to Leonard Fournette who rushed for more yards (225) than Minshew threw for (213). The Jags pulled off the upset despite lacking their top corner, Jalen Ramsey, in the contest. Getting Ramsey back this week would be a big help to the secondary who let Emmanuel Sanders go for 105 receiving yards against them and also let Courtland Sutton grab two TDs in the contest. 

The Panthers have been reborn this season under the leadership of quarterback Kyle Allen with Cam Newton still on the shelf. Allen didn’t find the end zone through the air last week, but he still moved the ball decently against a stout Texans defense. This game was another case where the defense gets a lot of credit for the win as the Panthers held Deshaun Watson to only 160 passing yards with no passing TDs while sacking him six times. This week, the Panthers will need to lean more on Christian McCaffrey than usual if Ramsey is back on the field, otherwise, this Jags defense can be beat as the Broncos showed us last week. 

This game feels too close to call and I wouldn’t be confident putting money on either side of the ball. 

My Final Prediction: Panthers win 21-20

My Pick: Jaguars +3, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Jaguars +3, Over 41

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• Joe Mixon was stuffed 5+ times in nine games since the 2017 season — tied for fifth-most.
• The Bengals RBs have not rushed for any TDs on nine carries in the red zone this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.4
• David Johnson was targeted 11 times last week — tied for most among RBs. 
• The Bengals have allowed 1,986 receiving yards to RBs since the 2017 season — most in NFL.
• The Bengals defense has allowed eight yards after the catch this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.2
• The Cardinals have at least one sack in each of their last 41 games — this is the longest active streak.
• The Cardinals defense has forced 8 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL
• The Cardinals defense has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.0
• The Cardinals are 1-5 (.167) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the start of last season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500
• The Cardinals are averaging 18.5 PPG this season.
• The Bengals have allowed 27.5 PPG this season — fifth-most in NFL.
• The Bengals are averaging 14.2 points per game this season — third-fewest in NFL.
• The Cardinals have allowed 28.8 points per game this season — fourth-most in NFL.

The fact that these two teams are playing against each other makes our locks and survival pool picks a little more difficult this week. Each team is a great team to bet against each week right now as neither has shown us consistent and quality play on either side of the ball. The Bengals had a semi-impressive loss in Week 1 going toe-to-toe with the Seahawks in Seattle but haven’t really looked like that team since. They got demolished by the 49ers in Week 2, lost to a tough Bills defense in Week 3, then got embarrassed in primetime against the Steelers on Monday Night Football last week. The running game has yet to show up with Joe Mixon only averaging 3.2 YPA on the season. The receiving game had been substantial despite the team missing A.J. Green to start the season, but now even that has taken a hit with John Ross being put on IR after a breakout start. The defense has given teams whatever they want and just has not pressured the QB enough with only five sacks through four weeks. Luckily, the Cardinals defense has been equally bad and this is a great spot for the Bengals to get that running game established and right the ship on the season.

The Cardinals are coming off their second blowout loss in a row. After losing by 18 points to the Panthers in Week 3, they lost by 17 to the Seahawks last week. Kyler Murray hasn’t exactly stepped up to the challenge yet this season when his team has needed him the most and he has already taken 20 sacks through just four weeks. The Cards have solid weapons on offense with David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, but the team as a whole just hasn’t found their rhythm yet. This is evident by the team ranking third in the league in pass attempts yet only ranking 21st in passing yards. Their high-volume passing philosophy is there, it just needs better execution. That might have to wait until the team gets Christian Kirk back healthy.

This game has the looks of a straight garbage-time shoot-out on both sides with neither defense offering much and both offenses capable of putting up ugly volume. I wouldn’t put actual money on either side for this game. 

My Final Prediction: Cardinals win 23-21

My Pick: Cardinals +3, Under 47

Machine Pick: Push, Over 47

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5)

Matchup Notes:

• Deshaun Watson has been sacked 18 this season — third-most. The Falcons have sacked the quarterback just five times this season — tied for second-fewest.
• Deshaun Watson has not been intercepted (81 pass attempts) in the red zone since last season.
• Texans WRs have 27 receiving TDs in the red zone since the 2017 season — third-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 29 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone to WRs since the 2017 season — second-most in NFL.
• Texans WRs have 46 receiving touchdowns since the 2017 season — second-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 45 receiving touchdowns to WRs since the 2017 season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Texans defense has forced 8 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Falcons have thrown the ball 61.8% of the time since week 14 of 2018 — second-highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2,395 passing yards since week 14 of 2018 — most in NFL.
• Matt Ryan has 43 touchdown passes in the red zone since the 2017 season — fifth-most amongst QBs. The Texans have allowed 45 passing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — third-most in NFL.
• Matt Ryan has thrown for 2,169 passing yards since week 14 of 2018 — fifth-most. The Texans have allowed 2,395 passing yards since week 14 of 2018 — most in NFL.
• The Falcons are averaging 17.5 points per game this season.
• The Texans have allowed 19.5 points per game this season.
• The Texans are averaging 19.5 points per game this season.
• The Falcons have allowed 24.8 points per game this season.

“Matt Ryan and the Falcons play better at home” is a common narrative, but that wasn’t the case last week as the Falcons lost 24-10 against the Titans in Atlanta. Matt Ryan somehow managed to throw for 397 yards without a single TD in the game and he has now thrown for over 300 yards in each game this season. This was the first game since Week 1 of 2018 that Ryan failed to throw a TD and only the third time in the last three seasons. The Falcons running game has yet to show up this season and last week was no exception. The team only combined for 58 rushing yards against the Titans with 18 of those yards coming from two scampers by Ryan himself. The Falcons passing game will have a solid test this week on the road against a Texans defense that has held half its opponents to under 200 passing yards this season. 

The Texans were one of the many teams who faced an upset last week as they couldn’t keep up with the Panthers, losing 10-16. The Texans have been in some very closely contested game this season and are just as close to being 4-0 as they are to 0-4. The volume hasn’t been there for the offense as they’ve been held to under 300 total yards in half their games so far this season. DeAndre Hopkins has not been anywhere near the threat he can be to opposing defenses so far this season and neither has Deshaun Watson. Watson is currently below his career averages in clutch categories like passing yards per attempt, yards per game, TD percentage, and not to mention, he is somehow on pace to be sacked more (72 times) than the 62 times he was hit last season which led the league. He’s also only averaging about half the rushing yards per game (18.8) as his career average (36.4) coming into the season. The Texans need to turn it up on offense which can be done against a Falcons defense whose average numbers against the passing game look better than they should, thanks to Kirk Cousins throwing for only 97 yards in Week 1. 

This is another game where I am not entirely confident in putting money on either team because I could really argue for either team to come out on the winning side of this bout. Given that that Falcons are being gifted more than the magic number of three points, they probably make for the best bet ATS.

My Final Prediction: Texans win 23-20

My Pick: Falcons +5, Under 49

Machine Pick: Houston -5, Over 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

Matchup Notes:

• The Saints are undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least one pass since the start of last season-best in NFL; League Avg: .612
• Alvin Kamara has gained 1,521 yards after the catch since the 2017 season — second-most among RBs.
• Michael Thomas has 13 receiving touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — fourth-most among WRs. The Bucs have allowed 28 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone to WRs since the 2017 season — tied for third-most in NFL.
• Jameis Winston has a passer rating of 144.2 when scrambling (28 Pass Attempts) since last season-best of 27 qualified QBs; League Avg: 66.6
• Jameis Winston has gained 67.0% of his total passing yards through the air when not under pressure since last season — highest of 31 qualified QBs; League Avg: 52.5%
• The Bucs defense has blitzed 44 times this season — most in NFL.
• The Bucs are averaging 30.8 points per game this season — fourth-most in NFL.
• The Saints have allowed 23 points per game this season.
• The Saints are averaging 21 points per game this season.
• The Bucs have allowed 29.2 points per game this season — third-most in NFL.

There is probably no team in the league flying higher heading into Week 5 than the Buccaneers after out-dueling the Rams in Los Angeles last week. The Bucs set a franchise record with 55 points scored in the contest as Jameis Winston threw for 385 yards with four TDs and one INT. This came on the heels of a surprising loss to the Giants last week and we are back to not really knowing what to expect from the Bucs, but I am even more confused about what to think of the Rams. The Bucs defense has gotten a lot of credit for looking better this season, but the opponent has still managed to put up over 30 points against Tampa in three-of-four contests this season. The Bucs will look to be road warriors again this week as they travel to New Orleans to face a Saints team that has made do without Drew Brees.

The Saints are coming off a defensive battle against the Cowboys last week that saw the Saints win 12-10. Each win the Saints have gotten this season has come by a total of less than one score. The passing offense continued to be virtually non-existent under Teddy Bridgewater last week, though he will get credit for managing the team to a win. The real hero was kicker Wil Lutz who knocked in four field goals, two of which were from 40 yards or more, as the only player in a Saints uniform to put points on the board. The Saints are loaded with offensive weapons but I just don’t see Bridgewater having the ability to keep up with the potential volume the Bucs can put up. Luckily the Saints defense is a sound unit and can probably make Winston revert back to the turnover machine we all know and love. 

The slate is full of uncomfortable matchups this week and this one is no exception. A bet would be hard to place on either team, but I would probably feel most comfortable banking at the Saints at home and Winston falling apart again after an impressive performance. It’s what he does. 

My Final Prediction: Saints win 27-24

My Pick: Saints -2.5, Over 46

Machine Pick: Saints -2.5, Over 46

Minnesota Vikings (-5) at New York Giants

Matchup Notes:

• The Vikings are undefeated (28-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the start of the 2016 season-best in NFL; League Avg: .845
• The Vikings defense has allowed 35 TD passes since the 2017 season — fewest in NFL.
• The Vikings WRs have fumbled five times this season — most in NFL.
• The Giants have allowed 2,266 passing yards since week 14 of 2018 — second-most in NFL.
• Kirk Cousins has a 73.3 passer rating on the road this season — third lowest.
• Daniel Jones completed passes for 20+ yards on 5 of his 31 total passing attempts (16.1%) last week — best amongst QBs; League Avg: 8.1%
• Daniel Jones has committed three turnovers on 19 plays (15.8% turnover percentage) when under pressure this season — highest amongst QBs; League Avg: 5.5%
• The Vikings are averaging 21 points per game this season.
• The Giants have allowed 24.2 points per game this season.
• The Giants are averaging 21.8 points per game this season.
• The Vikings have allowed 15.8 points per game this season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.

The Vikings are coming into this season playing like it’s the 1950’s with the least capable passing game in the league, but one of the best running games out there. The best way to beat the Giants in through the air, but I doubt we see many fireworks from Cousins and crew this week. This team has relied on Dalvin Cook and quality defense to get the wins it has earned this season, both of which have also come at home. Now they will have to travel to Jersey and take on a rejuvenated Giants team.

Daniel Jones has definitely given the Giants a spark, and that flame could get a little brighter this week with Golden Tate joining the team for the first time after serving his four-game suspension. Tate has been a master of creating yards after the catch in his career and will help give Jones another experienced security blanket to rely on in the short passing game. It will be really interesting to see how the Giants deploy both Tate and Sterling Shepard as they bring a similar skill set to the offense. The Vikings have only been a middle of the pack defense against receivers this season. They gave up two TDs to WRs on both the Falcons and the Raiders this season and Davante Adams was able to go for over 100 yards against them as well. This is probably where the Giants will have the most luck attacking this defense considering they’ll be without Saquon Barkley still and the Vikes have shut down pretty much every running back they’ve gone up against this season except for Aaron Jones. 

I’m a little surprised in the Vikes being such big favorites on the road which makes me want to lean towards the Giants ATS. I could see either team winning this one as well, to be honest.

My Final Prediction: Vikings win 23-18

My Pick: Giants +5, Under 43.5

Machine Pick: Vikings -5, Under 43.5

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Jordan Howard averaged 3.5 yards after contact per carry last week — best of 31 qualified RBs; League Avg: 0.3
• Eagles WRs have four receiving touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Jets have allowed just one receiving touchdown when defending in the red zone this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• Offenses facing the Eagles have thrown the ball 62.8% of the time since the 2017 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54.6%
• Jets WRs have no receiving touchdowns this season. The Eagles have allowed seven receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• Jets QBs have four completions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Jets have scored on 5.6% of their drives this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 34.9%
• The Jets have run 172 plays this season — fewest in NFL
• The Jets are averaging 11 points per game this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• The Eagles have allowed 26.2 points per game this season.
• The Eagles are averaging 27.5 points per game this season.
• The Jets have allowed 23.3 points per game this season.

The closeness of this game hinges greatly on the availability of Sam Darnold on Sunday, but in all reality, that wouldn’t make it anything you would consider “close.” Even if Sam Darnold does come back, strength and conditioning will likely be an issue as well as just a general lack of an explosive offense. The Jets continue to run the slowest-paced offense in the league and they will feed Le’Veon Bell touches until he is blue in the face. That gameplan won’t work great this week though either against a stout Eagles run defense. If the Jets want any chance of keeping up with the Eagles, it would need to be through the air, and the Jets simply don’t have the capability of doing that right now. The Jets are a good bet to start the season 0-6 with matchups against the Cowboys and Patriots after this week. A road trip to Jacksonville could be a closer game in Week 8, but if that doesn’t pan out, at least they get to face the Dolphins twice this season.

The Eagles are coming off extended rest after upsetting the Packers last Thursday. This is much needed for a team that saw almost half it’s offense under the medical tent since Week 2. The Eagles can basically pick their poison on offense this week in regards to how they want to beat the Jets. Their defense hasn’t stopped anyone. We could probably see another run-heavy game here featuring the likes of Jordan Howard who is coming off a big three TD game. If I am in a survival pool or picking a lock of the week, it’s the Eagles.

My Final Prediction: Eagles win 28-14

My Pick: Eagles -13.5, Under 44

Machine Pick: Jets +13.5, Over 44

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup Notes:

• Lamar Jackson has rushed for 238 yards this season — most among QBs.
• Ravens QBs have 18 completions of 20+ yards this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 16 completions of 20+ yards this season — tied for 10th fewest in NFL.
• Mason Rudolph has gained 28.3% of his total passing yards through the air when not under pressure this season — lowest of 34 qualified QBs; League Avg: 53.9%
• The Steelers defense has forced four turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens are averaging 33.8 points per game this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Steelers have allowed 22 points per game this season.
• The Steelers are averaging 19 points per game this season.
• The Ravens have allowed 25 points per game this season.

It’s a total cliché thing to say, but it really has been a tale of two seasons already for the Baltimore Ravens. After looking completely retooled in their first two matchups against cupcake defenses, the Ravens have gone nowhere but down since with their latest disappointment coming via a 25-40 loss to the Browns last week. The Ravens defense allowed a season-high 530 total yards to the Browns while their offense compiled a season-low 395 total yards. It’s hard to really say what kind of team this is right now, but after allowing 40 points at home last week, it’s clear that this is not the shutdown defense we are used to seeing from the Ravens. Lucky for them, they have back-to-back get-right matchups coming up against the Steelers this week and the Bengals next week.

The Steelers are a shell of their former selves this season so far with a completely reworked offense that’s missing most of their usual stars. They are coming in with momentum on their side, however, after demolishing the Bengals on primetime last week 27-3. Mason Rudolph looked much better as he only had four incompletions in the game last week. The Steelers defense also shut down a struggling Bengals offense. After allowing over 400 total yards in each of their first three games, the Steelers held Andy Dalton and the Bengals under 200 total yards on offense. The test will definitely be tougher against the Ravens this week, but as we know, this isn’t the same lights-out defense anymore. 

I still like the Ravens as favorites in this one, but it will be a really telling game for both teams to see if the Steelers can build on their momentum and if the Ravens can bounce back.

My Final Prediction: Ravens win 27-21

My Pick: Ravens -3, Over 44.5

Machine Pick: Ravens -3, Over 44.5

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• The Bills defensive line has missed nine tackles on 20 opportunities (45.0%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.8%
• Tennessee Titans linebackers have missed 10 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Malcolm Butler has allowed 13 completions this season — tied for second-most among NFL defensive backs.
• A.J. Brown has averaged 11.3 yards after the catch this season — best of 73 qualified WRs; League Avg: 4.3
• The Titans have not turned the ball over this season. The Bills have forced 8 turnovers this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
• Titans RBs have 22 rushing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — tied for seventh-most in NFL. The Bills have allowed 30 rushing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — most in NFL.
• The Bills are averaging 19 points per game this season.
• The Titans have allowed 15.5 points per game this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Titans are averaging 22.8 points per game this season.
• The Bills have allowed 15.8 points per game this season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.

This is probably the least exciting matchup of the week as both teams feature offenses that can struggle to move the ball and defenses that are capable of completely shutting down their opponent. The Bills three-game winning streak came to an end last week as they expectedly struggled to beat the juggernaut Patriots. It was an impressive loss though if there is such a thing as they made Tom Brady look human holding him to 150 scoreless yards with one INT. The Bills have held each opponent this season to 17 points or less while allowing less than 250 total offensive yards in half their games. If they could just get more consistent support from their offense this would be a much more impressive team. Josh Allen is questionable this week as he is dealing with a concussion. Matt Barkley replacing him would make me more comfortable leaning to the Titans.

Speaking of the Titans, this is another team coming into Week 5 with momentum on their side. They went on the road to upset the Falcons in Atlanta last week by a score of 24-10. The Titans were in rare form as they got stunning support from their receiving corps with both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis going over 90 yards in the game and combining for three TDs. Derrick Henry was also in on the fun running for 100 yards. The Titans offense has shown flashes of explosiveness this season but it has been far from reliable. Their defense has continued to hold opponents to low scores, making them a good bet to upset any week. I like them as the home favorites this week, especially if they’re facing Barkley.

My Final Prediction: Titans win 17-14

My Pick: Bills +3, Under 38.5

Machine Pick: Bills +3, Push O/U

New England Patriots (-15) at Washington Redskins

Matchup Notes:

• The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 41.0 this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 92.7
• The Patriots defense has not allowed a TD pass this season.
• The Patriots defense has 10 interceptions this season — most in NFL
• The Patriots defense has sacked opponents 18 times this season — tied for most in NFL
• Chris Thompson has gained 225 yards after the catch this season — second-most among RBs.
• The Patriots are averaging 30.5 points per game this season — fifth-most in NFL.
• The Redskins have allowed 29.5 points per game this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Redskins are averaging 16.5 points per game this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Patriots have allowed 6.8 points per game this season — fewest in NFL.

This will likely be the most lopsided affair of the week as the Patriots will be looking for blood after being slowed by the Bills last week. The Pats have shown us one of the most well-rounded offenses this season as their defense has been playing at an elite level. They’ve only allowed a combined total of 27 points to opponents through four weeks. On offense, Tom Brady continued his struggles in Buffalo last week but has been virtually unstoppable aside from that. He should have his way with a leaky Redskins defense this week.

The Redskins have no chance in this one. They’re completely unprepared and don’t even have anyone they’re comfortable tabbing as a starting QB at the moment. That is pretty much worst-case scenario when you’re about to face a coach as savvy as Belichick. We could see a roulette of a few QBs for the ‘Skins in this one and for the Pats, Jarrett Stidham might even make an appearance. If for whatever reason you didn’t take the Pats against the Dolphins as a lock or survival pool pick, this is another great spot to use them.

My Final Prediction: Patriots win 36-10

My Pick: Patriots -15, Over 42.5

Machine Pick: Redskins +15, Under 42.5

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6)

Matchup Notes:

• Philip Rivers has completed 20+ passes in each of his last 6 games — this is the longest active streak.
• Keenan Allen has nine receptions for 20+ yards this season — most among WRs.
• Chargers RBs have gained 1,442 yards after the catch since last season — most in NFL
• Melvin Gordon has broken 70 tackles since the 2017 season — second-most among RBs.
• The Broncos defense has no interceptions this season.
• Joe Flacco has a 90.4 passer rating this season — 10th-lowest of qualified QBs. The Chargers have allowed a passer rating of 111.0 this season — sixth-highest in NFL.
• The Broncos are averaging 17.5 points per game this season.
• The Chargers have allowed 18.5 points per game this season.
• The Chargers are averaging 22.5 points per game this season.
• The Broncos have allowed 23.2 points per game this season.

It feels like it’s almost a routine at this point that we talk about the Broncos just coming up short in a heartbreaking loss the previous week. Joe Flacco threw for just over 300 yards with three TDs last week but it still wasn’t enough to stop the combination of Gardner Minshew and Leonard Fournette. The Broncos have opened the season losing four straight games while they just look like a team that has no identity on either side of the ball. Flacco has been pretty meh this season and hasn’t gotten a ton of help from his receivers. There have been some impressive moments from Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders so far but an equal amount of disappointing moments from the rest of the crew. The running game has also been struggling as they have only combined for over 100 total rushing yards once this season. The defense hasn’t pressured opposing QBs enough to make much of a difference either but might be turning a corner after logging five sacks last week. They need to establish a better rhythm on offense if they want a chance at upsetting a completely banged up Chargers team.

The Chargers got their first win in ages against the Dolphins in Miami last week despite missing some key components on offense. Philip Rivers continues to be Mr. Consistent znd the team will officially welcome Melvin Gordon back to a starting role on offense this week. Austin Ekeler has been on a tear all season both as a runner and a receiver and we could see a heavy dose of both of these guys this week if the Broncos can’t keep this game competitive early. The Chargers are a pretty easy pick straight up but they definitely have a special way of losing in a spectacular fashion which makes me nervous giving them too many points.

My Final Prediction: Chargers win 23-17

My Pick: Broncos +6, Under 44.5

Machine Pick: Broncos +6, Over 44.5

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Ezekiel Elliott touched the ball 20+ times in a game 16 times since the 2017 season — most of RBs.
• Dak Prescott has a passer rating of 128.8 when under pressure (39 Pass Attempts) since week 14 of 2018 — best of 32 qualified QBs; League Avg: 62.0
• Amari Cooper has 18 receiving touchdowns since the 2017 season — tied for fifth-most of WRs. The Packers have allowed 45 receiving touchdowns to WRs since the 2017 season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• Aaron Rodgers has not been intercepted (144 pass attempts) when under pressure since last season — tied for best of 35 qualified QBs
• Aaron Rodgers has not thrown any TDs on 39 pass attempts in close and late situations this season — tied for highest of 31 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 20.7 attempts per TD
• The Packers have gone three and out three times in close and late situations this season — tied for most in NFL
• The Packers defense has two interceptions in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Packers are averaging 21.2 points per game this season.
• The Cowboys have allowed 14 points per game this season — third-fewest in NFL.
• The Cowboys are averaging 26.8 points per game this season.
• The Packers have allowed 17.2 points per game this season.

The Packers are coming into this game with extended rest having lost against the Eagles on last Thursday, but that might not be enough time for them to get their star wideout Davante Adams healthy as he deals with turf toe. Adams was having a career game before going down late in the game last week and the injury was obviously painful enough as he couldn’t come in to help his team when they needed him the most. Without Adams, this team becomes a bit more one dimensional as it still looks like Aaron Rodgers has lost a step since his undisputed elite days. Aaron Jones will probably be the lone man in the backfield as well as Jamaal Williams works his way back from getting his bell rung early last week, leaving the game on a stretcher. The Packers defense finally showed some holes last week as well after looking like a shutdown unit for the first three weeks.

The Cowboys are coming home with a chip on their shoulder after managing only 10 points in their loss to New Orleans last week. The Cowboys had looked like a Super Bowl-caliber team before last week, but like the Ravens, we will have to see if that was just a product of a cakewalk schedule to open the season or if Kellen Moore’s new offense is really legit. This is another game that is tough to call and could be telling for both teams looking forward. I would love to see the Pack at full health for the contest, but without that, they’re definitely a tough team to bet on this week in any form.

My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 23-20

My Pick: Packers +3.5, Under 46.5

Machine Pick: Packers +3.5, Over 46.5

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11)

Matchup Notes:

• Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception in 250 consecutive pass attempts — this is the longest active streak.
• Patrick Mahomes has a 120.4 passer rating this season-best of QBs. The Colts have allowed a passer rating of 113.0 this season — fourth-highest in NFL.
• Chiefs RBs have been targeted eight times in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL
• Jacoby Brissett has completed no passes (0/11) when under pressure this season. The Chiefs have allowed a completion rate of 66.7% when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — highest in NFL.
• The Colts are averaging 23.5 points per game this season.
• The Chiefs have allowed 23.5 points per game this season.
• The Chiefs are averaging 33.8 points per game this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Colts are have allowed 25.5 points per game this season.

The Colts probably get the “Head Scratcher of the Week” award for last week as they let the Raiders, who have struggled like no other on the road since last season, walk into Indy and put 31 points on the board. I don’t even trust what color the sky is in Indy anymore after this one and now they have to travel to one of the most daunting atmospheres in the league and play the most explosive offense. Good luck with that! 

The Chiefs are coming off a win in a much more closely contested matchup than expected last week as the beat the Lions 34-30. The Chiefs are somehow getting stronger on offense with Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams both inching their way back to full health. If the Raiders could put 31 on the Colts last week, the sky is the limit for Mahomes and the Chiefs this week. This is another great matchup to take advantage of in survival pools for Week 5.

My Final Prediction: Chiefs win 36-20

My Pick: Chiefs -11, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Chiefs -11, Over 56

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-5)

Matchup Notes:

• 49ers RBs have averaged 14.7 yards after the catch this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.9
• The 49ers defense has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 66 rushes this season-best in NFL
• The 49ers defense has allowed 8.7 yards after the catch to WRs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• Baker Mayfield averaged 11.4 yards per attempt last week — best of qualified QBs; League Avg: 7.1
• Baker Mayfield has a 77.2 passer rating this season — third lowest of qualified QBs. The 49ers have allowed a passer rating of 72.7 this season — third best in NFL.
• Jarvis Landry has dropped 11 balls since last season — most among WRs.
• Nick Chubb has broken 16 tackles since Week 14 of 2018 — tied for most among RBs
• The Browns are averaging 22.2 points per game this season.
• The 49ers have allowed 18 points per game this season.
• The 49ers are averaging 32 points per game this season — third-most in NFL.
• The Browns have allowed 22.8 points per game this season.

The Browns took three weeks worth of frustration out on the Ravens last week totaling 40 points in one of the most impressive upsets in a week full of them. Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards in the contest while Nick Chubb helped carry the offense with 165 rushing yards and three TDs on the day. Next up the Browns will have to go up against the undefeated 49ers who are coming off a week of rest thanks to an early bye week.

The 49ers are another team that has looked virtually unstoppable this season but also has done so with a less challenging opening schedule. The 49ers running game has been a focal point of this offense and is getting closer to full strength with Tevin Coleman close to a return. The passing still needs to find its groove more consistently which can potentially be done against a middle of the pack Browns defense. This should be a closely contested bout worthy of a primetime slot and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see either team on the winning end of the matchup. 

My Final Prediction: 49ers win 27-20

My Pick: 49ers -5, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Browns +5, Under 47