NFL Pick’em: Week 8
I apologize to regular readers, but this week’s pick’em article has to be somewhat abbreviated for me. My family and I were hit by Hurricane Zeta this week, and it’s nothing short of a miracle that I can provide any insight this week. This is the second hurricane we’ve been hit by in the last three weeks. Thanks to technology and using an iPhone as a hot spot, this is the best I can give you guys this week.
We had an excellent week with our picks in Week 7. I went 8-4 on both moneyline and against the spread picks and nailed over/unders with an 8-1 record, picking up 6.22 units there alone. We have hit ATS picks 53% of the time on the season, O/U picks 58%, and moneyline picks 68% for an average accuracy rating of 59.7%. Not too shabby. Let’s get to Week 8.
You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 7 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!
Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 52.5)
The Bengals have played a lot tougher than their 1-5-1 record would imply this season. It seems every week they are in the mix for a win but can’t quite pull it off. Looking at the numbers on offense shows this game could be rather close as well. The biggest advantage here on offense is that the Titans average 31.3 PPG while the Bengals are at just 23.3. The Bengals have dominated time of possession this season and have also moved the ball well, securing more first downs per game than the Titans. On defense, the Titans have the advantage in basically every aspect.
The public likes the Titans to win and cover heavily in this game with the over hitting. The numbers definitely support the Titans winning, but I think the Bengals may be able to keep it pretty close at home.
Final Prediction: Titans win 28-24
Picks: Bengals +6, Under 52.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 46)
We’re going to get our first look at what rookie Tua Tagovailoa will look like in the NFL in this intriguing matchup. It’s hard to say how long his leash will be as Ryan Fitzpatrick was moving the offense pretty well throughout this season.
On offense, this matchup favors the Rams in basically all categories, but these teams are pretty close in PPG. The Rams are averaging 25.1 this season while the Dolphins are at 26.7. The Rams have converted third downs at a higher rate and scored in the red zone 63% of the time compared to 57.7% for the Fins. On defense, we see more favoring the Rams in the numbers, especially with them allowing an incredibly low 4.9 yards per play. They’ve only allowed opponents to convert third downs 34.5% of the time, and opponents have scored in the red zone against the Rams 57.1% of the time.
With both teams actually being pretty stingy on third downs and neither being an offensive juggernaut, I can see why the total is so low here. With Tua making his first start, the Rams are the easy play, and I would anticipate them covering, which goes with the public’s view.
Final Prediction: Rams win 24-20
Picks: Rams -3.5, Under 46
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (O/U 50)
We get a solid matchup here of two teams fighting to break above even this season. These teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, with the Colts averaging a slightly higher yard per play rate. Neither team has converted third downs very well, and the Lions have had the edge in the red zone, converting 61.5% of drives into a score there.
The big story of the Colts’ season has been their offense, which has been lights out. It’s also getting a boost this week with Darius Leonard expected to make his return. The Colts have the edge in pretty much all defensive categories and have allowed a full yard per play less than the Lions.
The public likes the Colts to win and cover with the under hitting. With the way their defense has played, I can see that a three-point spread feels just about perfect to me, honestly. The under is the best play here, in my opinion.
Final Prediction: Colts win 24-20
Picks: Colts -3, Under 50
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4) (O/U 41)
It’s a passing of the torch, so to speak, in this inter-division rivalry. The Bills still aren’t playing as hot as when the season started, but neither are the Pats, so it all evens out. Cam Newton has not looked right since coming off the COVID list, and while the team claims he’s not feeling any aftereffects, it would almost be better if they said he was.
The Bills have the edge on offense here in pretty much all categories except the running game, where the Pats have seen more volume. The Bills are converting third downs at a much higher rate (52%-38%) and scoring in the red zone on a higher percentage of their drives. The Pats defense has still been better than the Bills this season, however. They’ve allowed opponents to convert third downs just 37.7% of the time and allowed scores in the red zone 57.9% of the time compared to 65.5% for Buffalo.
The public likes the Bills to win and cover with the over hitting. The total is dramatically low here compared to what we have seen this season, but with this being such a tough divisional matchup, I think there is a chance the Pats can keep it within three points.
Final Prediction: Bills win 22-20
Picks: Pats +4, Over 41
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (O/U 50.5)
This is one of the tougher games of the week to peg. Both teams can be volatile at times, and neither came into this season with a ton of expectations. While the Browns come in with a 5-2 record compared to just 3-3 for the Raiders, these teams are very close.
On offense, the Browns have scored more points on the season. They’ve converted red-zone drives into a score 79% of the time compared to a still-respectable 63.6% for the Raiders. The Raiders have the edge in third-down conversion rate and have had an immaculate 72% completion percentage this season.
Neither team is a huge threat on defense, but the Browns have the edge allowing opponents to convert third downs less often and score in the red zone less often. The Raiders have really struggled in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score 71.4% of the time there.
The public likes the Raiders to win and cover with the over hitting, going against the oddsmakers. It’s a complete toss-up, really, but I think I would take the Browns at home.
Final Prediction: Browns win 26-23
Picks: Browns -2.5, Under 50.5
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) (O/U 51)
We get another solid inter-division rivalry here as we see the Packers and Vikings go head-to-head once again. These teams are on opposite ends of their division, with the Pack coming in with a 5-1 record while the Vikes have struggled to a 1-5 record.
The Packers unsurprisingly have the edge here on offense. Both teams have converted their red-zone drives into a score impressively this season being over 70% for each team. On defense, the Vikings have been more stingy in the red zone, allowing opponents to convert just 52% of the time, while the Pack has generously allowed opponents to score 71% of the time.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover heavily with the over hitting. Pretty similar to what we saw earlier this season, and there’s not much reason to think things will change, especially with this game being in Green Bay.
Final Prediction: Packers win 30-23
Picks: Packers -6.5, Over 51
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4) (O/U 46.5)
The numbers are all incredibly close here for the matchup. The Ravens are averaging a slightly higher yard per play rate. The Steelers have moved the ball a little better this season, converting third downs 51.1% of the time. The Ravens running game still hasn’t been where it should be, but they have converted red-zone drives into a score more often at a 63.2% rate compared to 62.5% for the Steelers.
On defense, these teams exchange blows evenly as well. The Ravens have been more stingy on third down, but the Steelers have the edge in the red zone.
The public is split between a winner here but anticipates the Steelers covering and the over hitting. The trends favor the underdog in matchups between these teams, but I think I would give the Ravens a slight advantage at home.
Final Prediction: Ravens win 23-20
Picks: Steelers +4, Under 46.5
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) (O/U 49)
We know the Chiefs are going to win this. It’s really just a matter of how much do they win by? For all their shortcomings this season, the Jets defense actually has the edge over the Chiefs defense here. They’ve only allowed opponents to convert third downs 39.5% of the time compared to 41.7% for KC. The Jets have also allowed opponents to score in the red zone 51.7% of the time compared to 70% for KC.
The public unsurprisingly likes the Chiefs to win and cover, but they’re split on the over/under. I know this is basically the best against the worst, but nearly 20 points is a lot to give anyone. Even if this game gets out of hand fast, we could see the Chiefs send in the B-squad in the fourth quarter opening the opportunity for a backdoor cover by the Jets.
Final Prediction: Chiefs win 33-14
Picks: Jets +19.5, Under 49
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos (O/U 44.5)
Justin Herbert continues to be one of the most impressive rookies in the league, looking every bit the part of a franchise QB. The same can’t be said on the other side of the ball here as we are still waiting for Drew Lock to take a significant step forward.
On offense, the Chargers have the edge here in most categories, including their third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage. On defense, the Broncos fight back slightly, being slightly more stingy in yards per play and opponent third-down conversion rate. They’ve also allowed opponents to score in the red zone on just 47.6% of drives than 52.6% for the Chargers.
The public likes the Chargers to win and cover with the over hitting, and I tend to agree with most of that. I’m less confident about the over hitting with this being a divisional matchup, and both teams featuring a lot of young talent still trying to build consistency.
Final Prediction: Chargers win 26-20
Picks: Chargers -3, Over 44.5
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 43.5)
This is a classic matchup of solid offense going up against one of the league’s best defenses. The Bears continue to be carried by their defense and haven’t looked anywhere near as impressive as their record would imply.
The Saints have the edge here and pretty dramatically on offense. The Bears have been putrid, converting third downs just 35.1% of the time compared to 55% for the Saints. The Saints have also converted their red-zone drives into a score 68% of the time compared to 47.6% for Chicago.
On defense, we see the Bears strike back. They’ve been incredibly stingy on third down, allowing opponents to convert just 31.7% of the time. They’ve also allowed opponents to score in the red zone on just 42.3% of drives. The Saints have been destroyed in the red zone this season, allowing opponents to score there 86% of the time. This is where we could see the Bears have a chance to cover.
The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the under hitting. I agree with most of that, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears cover.
Final Prediction: Saints win 23-20
Picks: Bears +4.5, Under 43.5
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3) (O/U 53.5)
Another solid divisional rivalry is on the books for the afternoon slate on Sunday. The 49ers have overcome a lot of adversity so far this season to get where they are. They look like they are rounding into form before we hit the halfway point. On the other hand, the Seahawks have consistently been one of the best teams in the league week-in and week-out.
On offense, we see Seattle with the edge here in most cases. They’re moving the ball well on a per-play basis averaging 6.6 yards per play, but they’re converting third downs just 33.9% of the time. SF hasn’t moved the ball as well on a per-play basis and is also under the 50% mark when converting third downs. One area the Seahawks have crushed in this season is in the red zone, where they’ve converted 85.7% of those drives into a score. This will be a big test in the matchup as the 49ers defense has allowed scores in the red zone just 46.7% of the time. The 49ers have a distinct advantage across the board on defense.
The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the over hitting. I have to agree here as they have dealt with fewer struggles as a whole this season and have played consistently well each week. The only area I’m not sure about is the O/U as this could be tightly contested as an inter-divisional bout.
Final Prediction: Seahawks win 28-24
Picks: Seahawks -3, Under 53.5
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) (O/U 43)
The last matchup of Sunday is another heated divisional rivalry for Sunday Night Football. I would love to see this matchup with both teams at 100%, but both teams have been put through the wringer this season with injuries. None have been more important or devastating as the Cowboys’ QB situation as Ben DiNucci will be making a start. The fact that the Eagles will still get Carson Wentz under center gives them a big advantage here.
The numbers are hard to trust for the Cowboys as we have seen a mix of Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, and the Nooch under center. What is reliable, however, is how consistently atrocious the Cowboys defense has been.
The public likes the Eagles to win and cover with the over hitting. I like the Eagles without a doubt, but even with the state of the Cowboys defense and QB situation, nine points could be tough to cover for the Eagles. I think the Nooch could surprise a little and keep the game close enough for the ‘Boys.
Final Prediction: Eagles win 27-20
Picks: Cowboys +9, Over 43
