Fantasy Football Forecasts

Christian McCaffrey 2022 Player Outlook: Injuries are the key

Fantasy managers know how great Christian McCaffrey can be. Despite being on a mediocre offense, McCaffrey has been a complete stud since entering the NFL. The past two seasons have been disappointing, though. McCaffrey has been limited to 10 games. This has led to a lot of anger from his fantasy managers. Those who had to select him at No. 1 overall to see him get hurt. Will this injury streak keep him from being drafted high in 2022? No. Because we know, when he is healthy, what he can be. In his entire last season in 2019, McCaffrey was on the field for 93% of the Carolina Panthers' offensive snaps. On those snaps, he totaled 2,392 yards and 19 touchdowns. Along with compiling 287 rush attempts, the 25-year-old also brought in 116 catches on 142 targets. He was the offense. In 2022, and with the quarterbacks the Panthers have, he will need to have another remarkable season for Carolina to have any chance to save the job of head coach Matt Rhule. Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, or Matt Corral. It will not matter who the quarterback is. They will all know who their best weapon is. They will not need to be told. This makes McCaffrey once again a top-three running back for fantasy teams. Despite the worries about more injuries and his recent track record, there is a real chance he will once again go No. 1 in fantasy drafts. At the same time, there are others in the running. Mainly Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor; many leagues will still draft McCaffrey. And it is hard to blame them. Every player has an injury risk. But few have the actual upside of Christian McCaffrey. If you are comfortable taking a chance on him, he is a good pick at number one. If not, Henry or Taylor might be your cup of tea. Either way, McCaffrey is set to have a monster season once again as the only weapon the quarterbacks in Carolina will be able to count on. Especially if the offensive line is not fixed and the receivers cannot get open in time because of it. If you pick third or fourth in your draft and McCaffrey falls to you, pounce on him. He will be worth the risk.

Jonathan Taylor 2022 NFL Player Outlook: The Consensus No.1 Pick In Fantasy Drafts

This season will be running back Jonathan Taylor's third with the Indianapolis Colts and in the league. In his first season, there was a glimpse of promise. Last year that promise became a reality. In his rookie season, Taylor had 232 rushing attempts and 1,169 rushing yards while averaging five yards and gathering 11 touchdowns. On the receiving end, he had 39 targets with 36 receptions and 299 receiving yards. He also had one receiving touchdown. Last season Taylor increased his attempts by 100, his yards by 642, his yards per attempt by .5, and his rushing touchdowns by seven. Taylor finished the season as RB1 in standard fantasy football leagues. He rushed for 1,811 rushing yards, 5.5 average yards per attempt, four fumbles, 18 touchdowns, hauling in 40 receptions for 360 receiving yards, five drops, and two receiving touchdowns. Taylor finished the 2021 season RB1. He and his fantasy managers are looking for him to be the first running back to repeat as the overall number one in fantasy since Priest Holmes accomplished that feat in 2003. Let that sink in. It has been 18 years since an RB1 went -back-to-back. To return to RB1 prominence, you must have a few things, including opportunities. Taylor's rushing market share in Weeks 1-9 was 74%, which increased to 94% in Weeks 10-17. Taylor was one of the few running backs to touch the ball an average of 20 times a game. The least amount of rushing attempts in 2021, Week 3, 10 attempts against the Tennessee Titans. His most attempts were 32 in Weeks 11 and 13, against both the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Taylor isn't in a running back by committee situation. Nyheim Hines played 17 games in 2021 with 56 rushing attempts and a 31.3% snap share. His threat to Taylor's production is not in the running game but may exist in the passing game. There Taylor finished last season with 51 targets and 40 receptions for a 10.6% target share. Hines collected 57 targets and 40 receptions for an 11.4% target share. And yet, Taylor still finished as RB1 in standard fantasy leagues. Can he be played against any match-up? Last season against the Buffalo Bills, the Bills went into the game against Taylor, having given up the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. In the three games before Taylor, the Bills had only given up 42.9 combined points to running backs. The 23-year-old had 51.9 in half PPF fantasy points in the one game against the Bills. He finished the game with 32 rushing attempts, 185 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, one receiving touchdown, and 204 receiving yards. So, yes, you can play him against anyone. And once he gets the ball? Per statmuse.com, in 2021 Taylor averaged 5.5 yards after contact (behind only Rashaad Penny 6.3, who only played 10 games). He also had 488 yards before contact, the most in the league. Is he durable? Yes, and that goes back to his college games. In his three years in college, Taylor ran for over 2000 yards from scrimmage and had over 300 rushing attempts. In his two years in the NFL, he has not missed a game (knock on wood). The Colts will play the AFC South twice: The Titans were first against the run game (83.5 rushing yards per game allowed), Jaguars were 22nd (125.1 rushing yards per game allowed), and the Texans were 31st (142.2 rushing yards per game allowed). Taylor has another big season in store for him and is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook: Consensus Top-3 Pick In 2022

This season, the Los Angeles Chargers are a niche pick for the Super Bowl. If they plan on finally getting over the hump and the Kansas City Chiefs, Austin Ekeler will have to be a significant reason. The Chargers have a loaded offense with an elite young quarterback in Justin Herbert and a good receivers group headed by Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. In 16 games in 2021, Ekeler logged 206 rushing attempts. The 26-year-old doesn't carry a heavy workload like Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook, but he is an all-around running back. Ekeler caught 70 passes on 94 targets for 647 yards and eight touchdowns while rushing for 911 yards and 12 touchdowns through the ground. The Chargers used a fourth-round draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft on running back Isaiah Spiller out of Texas A & A&M. While this may seem like a challenge for Ekeler, I do not see it this way. Ekeler has never been the full-time back in the offense. Whether it be Justin Jackson or Melvin Gordon III, there has always been a second back taking some touches from Ekeler. Spiller and his similar skill set to Ekeler is an insurance policy for a team hoping to make a late run this season. Not to mention the running backs, much like the quarterbacks, were severely pushed down this draft season, and the value of Spiller was too good to pass up. Williams will continue to be the downfield threat, and Allen will feast in the slot. But with the tight end position being a mystery, Ekeler will be the dump-off weapon for Herbert. Something he has excelled at in his career. Along with his 200-rush potential, this fact makes him an exciting running back for fantasy. A first-round lock in fantasy drafts, Austin Ekeler, can go as high as number two or three with no hesitation. Johnathan Taylor should be the consensus number one pick. But after Taylor, all bets are off. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery, and Alvin Kamara come with risk. In a pile of elite but worrying backs, Austin Ekeler could be the safest of the group.

Dalvin Cook Fantasy Outlook: Looking To Roast The NFC North

In 2021, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook continued his career trend of missing time with injury. Despite this, Cook was still a stud for fantasy managers. Cook had 1,157 yards and six touchdowns across 14 games in 2021. This, of course, included 200 yards and two touchdowns with his arm in a sling against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was also able to make some hay in the passing game with 34 receptions on 49 targets from Kirk Cousins. Although with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson on the roster, Cook will not need to be to the level of a Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara in the passing game. His ability gives the Minnesota Vikings yet another weapon as they attempt a return to the playoffs. All players come with injury risk. Running backs get hurt more than most. But Dalvin Cook is seemingly hurt even more than most running backs. Derrick Henry is coming off a missed season, and Alvin Kamara is still breaking in a new quarterback. Cook will have a solid quarterback and an excellent pass game protecting him in the offense despite the injury concerns. His 19.2 attempts-game average also shows the work he does get while in the starting lineup. No one in Minnesota is threatening Cook for the starting position, and you should not be scared off by the lack of playing an entire season yet in his career. There are other running backs whom I like better: Johnathan Taylor and Derrick Henry for sure. But if you have the third or fourth pick in your fantasy draft and Dalvin Cook is available, he is a worthy pick and should not disappoint you with his production. Just make sure you have a solid RB 2. Just in case.

Najee Harris 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Full Workload Expected For Pittsburgh's Primary Back

Coming into the NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris was known to be a powerful runner of the ball. Due to his usage in Alabama, what was unknown was if he could catch the ball. Pittsburgh put this to the test in 2021, seeing 74-of-94 targets sent his way. With 307 rushing attempts, Harris was the main focus of an offense led by a broken-down Ben Roethlisberger. A new year brings a new quarterback. But who is it going to be? The team signed Mitchell Trubisky from the Buffalo Bills and drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Trubisky will get the first crack at the starting job and is expected to be the team's starting quarterback for Week 1. Although, the former No. 2 overall pick reportedly hasn't looked sharp so far in training camp. With wide receivers, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and tight end Pat Freiermuth on the ascension, Harris will hopefully not need to repeat his massive workload in 2022. If the Alabama product does, he may break down earlier than expected. Although the 24-year-old is a big back at 6'1 and 232 pounds, the 24-year-old will not continue to take the type of beating he did in 2021. Harris is far smaller than Derrick Henry, and most running backs who take as much physicality as Harris seems to slide a bit. Just look at a player like former Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray and what happened after his season of massive workload in 2014. As for 2022, this should be a momentous year for Harris. The Steelers have done a bit of upgrading on the offensive line. They also have a quarterback who can throw the ball downfield, regardless of who wins the job. Thus, lessening the burden on Harris to do everything. While his receptions may come down, his rush attempts will remain as the Steelers never split carries unless forced to by injury. Fantasy managers can expect the No. 24 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to rack up the 1,200 yards he gained in 2021 as a reasonable expectation. He may also get to double-digit touchdowns with more focus on the run game. These additional touchdowns will lessen the burden felt by his reduction in receptions and most likely keep him as an elite running back for fantasy. The consensus No.1 overall pick is Jonathan Taylor, but Harris is firmly in the competition for the next running back off the board. There is a group of elite running backs he is competing with, and all of them have their pros and cons. When deciding in your draft and you have any selection from pick two, look at Harris. Fantasy managers will not be disappointed in the results.

Cooper Kupp Fantasy Outlook: An MVP Follow Up

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp was outstanding last season. Kupp had 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns across 17 games. He was named AP Offensive Player of the Year and was the Super Bowl MVP for the Rams. It was a season almost unheard of by wide receiver standards. So how does he follow it up? Robert Woods is now in Tennessee with the Titans, and Odell Beckham Jr. is likely heading to another team in free agency. The Los Angeles Rams brought in Allen Robinson, and he will make an excellent replacement for Woods and Beckham. But Kupp will still be staffing the slot for the offense. The connection Kupp has already formed with Matthew Stafford has become something of amazement. All NFL teams would love to have a quarterback and wide receiver duo who love each other as much as these two. This connection will not be broken by adding even more weapons into the mix. Allen Robinson has been a number one alpha receiver for his entire career. In this offense, Robinson knows what his role is. To be a dominant number two in a good offense. This means Kupp and his place are secure. The No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in 2021 has a great chance to repeat the feat in 2022. Kupp's career year in 2021 might not be reached, but the 2022 stats could get close to the same. And in all fairness, he has done it once. So why not again? Kupp is the WR 1 for fantasy in 2022. This is deserved and expected. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, he will again be a top-three player at the position. Kupp is well worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Outlook: A Young Star Continues To Rise In The North

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had a remarkable rookie season in 2020. After 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, and seven touchdowns, the pressure was one for him to improve. And improve, he did. While playing in all 17 games, Jefferson had 108 receptions for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was the main target for quarterback Kirk Cousins and was able to keep the offense afloat during weeks when Adam Thielen missed games due to injury. Coming into year three, but under a new head coach, it will be essential for him to keep things going. It is good to know his new head coach Kevin O'Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams and Cooper Kupp last season. So, there is the potential for an even better season in 2022 than he ever had in 2021. Although Dalvin Cook is there and Thielen is now healthy, Jefferson has taken over as the main cog of the offense in Minnesota. When the team needs a big play, they know where to get it. Jefferson. Finding a place to select him in fantasy drafts will be difficult. If you have an early first-round pick, this is too early to select him. On the other hand, he will likely not get back to you in the second round. If you want him, you will need to grab him there. This said, he is not worth more than the elite running backs. Wide receivers are more readily available. Your best bet of getting Jefferson is to have a late pick in the first. You can grab a running back and then get Jefferson early in the second. Or even reverse the order and select Jefferson in the first. While Kupp and Davante Adams are the number one and two wide receivers to be drafted, Jefferson should be in a fight with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs for the next man up. You cannot go wrong with either one of these players. But with the offense surrounding him and the potential of Jefferson under a new head coach, he could and possibly should be your choice as the number three receiver in fantasy drafts.

D'Andre Swift 2022 Outlook: Prototype Breakout Pass-Catching RB

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift has immense value in 2022 fantasy football, which is well-represented by his current ADP of RB9. Through his 10 complete games before getting injured, Swift handled an 18.8% target share and was on pace to have the most targets of any running back last season (114). This 10-game pace would've seen D'Andre Swift finish as the RB3 in half and full-PPR, finishing behind only Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. Furthermore, in Jared Goff's first year in Detroit, the Lions' entire offense struggled at first, averaging just 1.7 TD per game while Swift was healthy. However, this number jumped up to 2.6 TD per game in Goff's five games without Swift. In the second half of the season, this touchdown improvement was not a factor in the Lions losing Swift but rather more comfortability for Goff in the new offensive scheme. The Lions' offense should continue to improve in Goff's second year under head coach Dan Campbell, especially after the team's recent additions of D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams to help open up the field further. With the health uncertainties of other highly-ranked running backs in mind heading into 2022, Swift may be one of the safest and one of the highest-upside running backs to be drafted early. As a young, pass-catching running back on a team projected to improve in 2022, Swift's ceiling next season is the overall RB1.

Ja'Marr Chase 2022 Outlook: Second-Year Stud Set For Encore

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase met all expectations and then some in his 2021 rookie season after being the No. 5 overall pick in the draft. Chase finished with 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns while also setting the single-game rookie receiving record with 266 yards in Week 17. Chase is primed to build upon his debut season success in 2022 on a Bengals offense that is set to explode this upcoming year. Cincinnati invested significant resources into fixing an offensive line that struggled in 2021, bringing in La'el Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Cappa to protect star quarterback Joe Burrow. An improved offensive line will allow the Bengals to play faster on offense and give Burrow more time to find his pass catchers down the field. Chase is being selected towards the end of the first round in fantasy drafts and is worth a look even earlier than that if fantasy managers want to build around star pass-catchers in 2022.

Travis Kelce 2022 Outlook: Star TE Will Benefit From Less Target Competition

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been the gold standard at the position over the past half-decade. He turned in yet another excellent fantasy season in 2021, finishing with 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. Kelce will be all that remains of Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets over the past few years after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins during the offseason. Hill soaked up 159 targets in 2021, vacating a 25.1% target share in Kansas City. The Chiefs added JuJu Smith-Schuster as a free-agent and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round, but it is Kelce who has the rapport and chemistry with Mahomes. Despite him entering his age 32 season, Kelce remains an elite fantasy asset worth taking as the first tight end off the board as early as the second round in drafts.