RB Forecasts

Christian McCaffrey 2021 Outlook: If Healthy, He’ll Be Back On Top

In 2020, Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey played just three games because of an ankle injury and a shoulder injury, but the former Stanford star still made the most of his time on the field, scoring six total touchdowns in those two games. In his second year with head coach Matt Rhule, we should see McCaffrey play a huge role on this offense as both a rusher and receiver. In 2019, McCaffrey led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, finishing with 2,392 and also scoring a league-high 19 touchdowns. One of the NFL's most dynamic players, McCaffrey will have to adjust to having a new quarterback throwing him the ball in Sam Darnold, but at this point, McCaffrey's skillset seems like it can shine regardless of the quarterback. There are a lot of really good running backs in the NFL, but McCaffrey's projected role makes him the clear choice with the 1.01 pick in 2021 redraft leagues. Even if he doesn't reach his absurd level of production from 2019, McCaffrey's floor is 200 carries and 100 targets, and he should blow past that floor with ease. Don't let the injuries last season deter you: McCaffrey is the top fantasy back in the league.

Alvin Kamara 2021 Outlook: No Brees, (Probably) No Problem

The New Orleans Saints will look a lot different in 2021, with quarterback Drew Brees retired and Jameis Winston expected to start under center. One thing should remain the same, though, which is that running back Alvin Kamara will play an important role on this team. Sure, his splits last season in the four games he played without Brees weren't great, but the biggest reason for that was that the Saints started Taysom Hill at quarterback, something that radically changed the offense and led to Kamara averaging just 14.2 PPR points per game in those four contests as opposed to 29.23 in the other 11 games. The biggest reason for that change in production was that with Brees out, Kamara saw about half as many targets per game. But in 2019, Winston targeted his running backs 109 times, which assuages a lot of our concerns about Kamara's receiving game role. Kamara had 21 touchdowns last season, with a career-high 1,688 yards from scrimmage even with that four-game Hill sample dragging his numbers down. Without any elite weapons on this offense beyond Michael Thomas, Kamara should be relied on more than ever, making him a strong pick in the latter half of the first round in all fantasy formats.

Dalvin Cook 2021 Outlook: Running Healthy

What could be? This has been the question since Dalvin Cook came into the league. If he just could remain healthy, how good could he be? In 2020, we found out.Although he still only played in 14 games, Cook had a massive workload, rushing 312 times for 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns. While yards per attempt is not always a good indicator, having a 5.0 average on 312 rushes is certainly not a negative. With an additional 44 touches for 361 yards in the passing game, Cook proved to be the three-down back the Vikings thought they were getting when they drafted him in the second-round from Florida State in 2017. Cook showed he is deserving of the new contract given to him.2021 should be much of the same for Cook in Minnesota. The Vikings are loaded on offense with Cook playing alongside Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins will also be more aggressive in getting the ball out. And not just because the team drafted Kellen Mond, but also because he was called out by Jefferson during a radio interview about not being aggressive or having the same swagger as Jefferson's college quarterback at LSU, Joe Burrow.The offense in Minnesota is not the problem. They will score and it will revolve first and foremost around Dalvin Cook. If you do not have a top-three draft pick, you are not getting him, and for good reason. If you do, he might be the safest pick in the top three, even more so than Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry.

Ezekiel Elliott 2021 Outlook: Dak Prescott Spinach Can

Ezekiel Elliott's 2020 season was one of two tales. He was dominant early on and then he faded into obscurity over the back half of the season, but it was not entirely his fault. Superstar quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season in Week 5 due to a compound fracture in his ankle, and with it, came the destruction of the Cowboys' hopes for a productive season. Elliott played the remainder of the season with quarterbacks Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert at the helm. If that wasn't bad enough, the Cowboys' offensive line was decimated as well. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith only played two games, and all-pro guard Zack Martin only played in 10 games, often playing through injury when active. I am not putting too much stock into the Cowboys' season when evaluating Elliott's 2021 outlook because so many things went wrong. The good news is that the abysmal season Elliott put down has significantly decreased his value, especially in redraft leagues, where he is lasting until the eighth or ninth overall pick. I would draft him inside the top-five as the fourth running back off the board because I am expecting a tremendous bounce-back season for Zeke with a healthy Prescott. In the five games that he played with Prescott last year, Elliott was the RB3 overall and averaged 18 carries for 73 yards and one touchdown per game for an average of 23.1 ppg. Without Prescott, those numbers dropped dramatically to 15.5 carries for 61.5 yards and .1 touchdowns per game for an average of only 11.8 ppg, a 51% drop in production. Prescott also significantly boosted Elliott's usage in the receiving game as he averaged 4.8 receptions for 34.6 yards per game with him and a dismal 2.8 receptions for 16.5 yards without him. The fact of the matter is that Zeke is a fantasy superstar with Prescott and a mediocre RB2 without him. Combine that with the return of a healthy offensive line and Elliott is in store for a monstrous 2021 season. Do not let him slip past fifth overall in redraft leagues.

Derrick Henry 2021 Outlook: Can He Keep Up This Run?

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has led the NFL in rushing attempts in each of the last two seasons, including his 378-carry 2020 season, the first season where a player had 350 or more carries since DeMarco Murray in 2014. Henry finished last season with 2,027 rushing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 126.7 yards per game. But while Henry was a completely dominant force in the run game, he remained a non-factor in the passing game, catching 19 passes for 114 yards. Henry's lack of receiving upside makes him an intriguing case in PPR leagues, because in order to hit the value needed as a first-round fantasy pick, he has to keep up his ridiculous pace as a runner. If we were talking about any other back, the inclination would be to expect enough regression that the player wouldn't be a top-five fantasy back, but Henry is...well, he's Derrick Henry. He has 33 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons and just had 1,073 yards after contact. He's nearly impossible to bring down. The floor is lower here than with other top backs because he won't add reception points, but he's still the best rusher in the NFL. You won't be disappointed by Henry if you get him around pick five or six.