TE Forecasts

Travis Kelce 2021 Outlook: Fantasy MVP Becomes G.O.A.T. Candidate

Travis Kelce is the most valuable player in all of fantasy. He stands alone atop the tight end totem pole, and there are several levels between him and the TE2. He is the elite of fantasy's elite and I wouldn't knock anyone if they took him with the 1.01 (though it's not what I would do). He's finished as the TE1 for five years in a row, and he will do it again in 2021 for an unprecedented sixth consecutive time. Over that span, he's averaged 95 receptions on 134 targets for 1,229 yards and eight touchdowns. I'll wait while you pick your jaw up off the floor. Over his last two seasons, his dominance has become even greater, finishing with 2.1 more points per game than the TE2 in 2019, and 3.3 more last year where he set the record for receiving yards in a season at the position (1,416). He is well on his way to becoming the greatest tight end of all time. Kelce consistently prevails over the field because the Chiefs' offense is explosive, high-scoring, and incredibly creative, which makes it so defenses can't double team Kelce orTyreek Hill will destroy them over the top. As a result, Kelce always finds himself in favorable matchups, and his consistency has made him Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. The tight end landscape is a total crapshoot after the top six or seven guys. Therefore, rostering Kelce gives fantasy players the greatest possible advantage over their opponents because he is so much better than everyone else at his position. His floor is 90 receptions for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. He's a first-round pick in 2021 redraft leagues, and rightfully so. No spot is too early.

Mark Andrews 2021 Outlook: Mark-ed For Redemption

Mark Andrews is one of my favorite players to target this season and he can be had in the sixth round of redraft leagues. Andrews broke out in 2019 to the tune of 64 receptions for 852 yards (13.3 yards per reception) and 10 touchdowns on a snap count of only 41%. He finished as the TE5 in PPR leagues and led the position in deep targets, touchdowns, average depth of target (11.8), and fantasy points per route run. His stellar performance led to an ADP of TE3 at 41st overall last year. Unfortunately, he did not live up to expectations. Andrews finished as the TE6 with 58 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns. His decrease in production can largely be attributed to being Lamar Jackson's favorite target and the focal point of opposing defenses. Despite a down year statistically, he saw his snaps increase to 58% and his target share jump to 24.9%, behind only Travis Kelce and Darren Walleramongst tight ends. If you read between the lines, you can see why I am all in on Andrews for 2021. He was a top-six tight end the past two seasons while playing on the Ravens, who finished 32nd in pass attempts both seasons while playing an average of just 49.5% of snaps. His performance in the red zone also increased in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, and the Ravens target the tight end position the third-most in the league. The Ravens also went out and signed Sammy Watkins, and drafted Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace. The added receivers will help take pressure off of Andrews in the middle of the field, and should lead to more mismatches and efficient targets. I'm expecting Andrews to play upwards of 65% of the snaps this year, and I would happily draft him in the sixth round for his bounce back campaign.

Kyle Pitts 2021 Outlook: The Falcons Snagged a Unicorn

The Atlanta Falcons made history when they drafted Kyle Pitts fourth overall, the highest ever for a tight end. Pitts is unlike any tight end prospect we have ever seen because, in addition to his insane athleticism, he has elite skills as a receiver. Pitts stands at 6'6", weighs 245 lbs, ran a 4.45 40-yard dash, and leaped 129" in the broad jump. He also has an 83 3/8" wingspan, the largest of any tight end in history, and almost 2" larger than Calvin Johnson's (82"). The history of rookie tight ends is abysmal, but if anyone can break the mold, it's Pitts. Atlanta will throw the ball 600+ times as they have every year since 2018, and with the inevitable departure of Julio Jones, Pitts figures to step in right away as the second option behind Calvin Ridley. New head coach Arthur Smith figures to fix the Falcons' tight end woes immediately since his offense with the Titans led the league in two-tight end sets last year. I'd expect Hayden Hurst to be the primary blocker and Pitts to handle upwards of 85% of the receiving work right out of the gate. As Matt Ryan's second option in the passing game, I'd expect Pitts to see a minimum of 110 targets as a rookie and be Ryan's favorite target in the red zone due to his size and athleticism. I would draft him in the sixth round right behind T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews because, after that, tight end is a crap-shoot, so why not take a shot on a player that has 1,000 yards and 10 touchdown potential from day one?

George Kittle 2021 Outlook: Resurgence by the Bay

There were a lot of stars who had seasons shortened by injury last season. From Julio Jones to Dak Prescott, teams lost their best players and it cost them. The same can be said for the 49ers and George Kittle.In his limited action, we saw why he is a top-three TE in the NFL. Unfortunately, he missed half of the year with an ankle injury before inexplicably returning for the 49ers' final two games of this season. If you somehow made your fantasy semi-final without Kittle, you were rewarded, but otherwise, not great for those who took a second-round shot on him. Don't let last season deter you from going back to the Kittle well in 2021. Whether it'sJimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance, either QB knows to get Kittle the ball early and often. If it's Jimmy G, we've seen it. If it's Lance, as the cliche goes, a TE is a rookie QB's best friend. There is no better friend to have than Kittle. He can catch the ball. He blocks as well as anyone at the position, and he just seems like an all-around fun dude.The 49ers are poised to make a run again at the NFC title and get back to the Super Bowl. George Kittle is the best player on this team. He will be instrumental in getting them there. Even with last season being lost, he is still clearly in the top tier of the TE position with Travis Kelce and Darren Wallerand the only TEs worth early-round selections in fantasy drafts. How early? The second round is still not too early for them. They give you so much of a statistical advantage at the position. In 2020, Kittle averaged 3.4 more ppg than the TE4 and 5.6 more ppg than the TE12. Grab him and be set at the position. Otherwise, wait until late in drafts and pick from a handful of everyone else and hope they salvage weeks for you.

Darren Waller 2021 Outlook: As Safe an Option You’ll Find at Tight End

Darren Waller burst onto the scene in 2019, catching 90-of-117 targets for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. The question was whether he could do it again in 2020. He answered the mail and then some. His targets increased to 146 and he caught nine touchdowns, good for 33% of all Derek Carr's passing touchdowns. The Raiders replaced 27-year-old Nelson Agholor and his 82 targets and eight touchdowns with 31-year-old John Brown. Outside of that, not much should change in terms of the passing game. Simply put, Waller rarely comes off the field (he played 93% of offensive snaps last season, second most amongst tight ends), and when he's on the field, he's a target hog. In fact, he had a whopping 27.7% target share a season ago, most amongst all tight ends. That's even higher than Travis Kelce, who had a 23.7% target share in 2020. Waller is a lock for 125+ targets and over 1,100 yards, which makes him an extremely valuable commodity at the thinnest position in all of fantasy football. Prioritize Darren Waller just after Travis Kelce in all league formats this season.