TE Forecasts

Travis Kelce 2022 Outlook: Star TE Will Benefit From Less Target Competition

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been the gold standard at the position over the past half-decade. He turned in yet another excellent fantasy season in 2021, finishing with 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. Kelce will be all that remains of Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets over the past few years after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins during the offseason. Hill soaked up 159 targets in 2021, vacating a 25.1% target share in Kansas City. The Chiefs added JuJu Smith-Schuster as a free-agent and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round, but it is Kelce who has the rapport and chemistry with Mahomes. Despite him entering his age 32 season, Kelce remains an elite fantasy asset worth taking as the first tight end off the board as early as the second round in drafts.

Mark Andrews 2022 Outlook: Will Have Every Opportunity to Repeat as the Overall TE1

Mark Andrews completely broke out in 2021. He went from averaging 12.2 PPR points per game in 2020, to a whopping 17.7 PPR points per game last season. He finished the season as the overall TE1, unseating Travis Kelce, who held the honors between 2016 and 2020. But did it come because of higher efficiency, or was it based solely on the Ravens' increase in passing volume? In 2020, Baltimore was dead last in pass attempts per game with 25.9. That led to Andrews seeing just 6.3 targets per game. In 2021, they threw the ball 35.9 times per game, 10 more times than in 2020. As a result, Andrews saw a large spike in targets, up to 9.1 per game. He ran 30.2 routes per game compared to just 23.6 routes per game in 2020. However, his targets per route run (TPRR) rate went from 26.6% in 2020 to 30% in 2021. That metric helps adjust for the increased passing volume in Baltimore and tells us Andrews was being targeted at an even higher rate than he was the year prior. And now Marquise Brown is out of the mix after being traded to Arizona. Brown missed one game last season, and in that game, Andrews saw 10 targets for a target share of 27.8%. He was also tied for fifth in the league last season in targets inside the 10-yard line with 11, two more than Travis Kelce. And he converts on those high-value targets, totaling an astronomical 26 touchdowns over the last three seasons, one more than Kelce over that stretch. The Ravens may not throw it 35.9 times per game this season, but when they do, you know it's going to Andrews. With that said, Kelce could dominate this season without Tyreek Hill, so you could argue for either one of these elite tight ends as the first one off draft boards in 2022.

Kyle Pitts 2022 Player Outlook – Atlanta’s Top Target By a Landslide

Many tight ends have a large learning curve to overcome in their rookie campaign. Not Pitts, who was able to have a 1,000-yard year in his first NFL season. Despite dealing with constant double coverage due to Atlanta's below-average receiving corps, Pitts managed to break the 50-yard mark in 10 games and the 100-yard barrier in three contests. His big fantasy flaw, however, was that he was unable to do much inside the red zone that turned into a trip to the end zone. Pitts was almost shut out of scoring as he only mustered up one touchdown during his otherwise spectacular season. The fantasy managers who hoped the Falcons would upgrade their receiving corps in the offseason to free up Pitts against secondaries must be sorely disappointed that their lackluster wideout group got worse. Despite drafting USC product Drake London in the first round, the Falcons lost Calvin Ridley to a year-long suspension and Russell Gage to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so Pitts' chances of not being double-covered as often are not any better. Also going against Pitts is that Marcus Mariota will be his quarterback and not Matt Ryan. Pitts should have no trouble providing value for his fantasy managers in the receptions and yards departments and should score a few more touchdowns in his sophomore season. He is a top-five fantasy TE, but do not be surprised if the Falcons prevent him from being the fantasy demigod in 2022 he is destined to be.

Darren Waller 2021 Outlook: As Safe an Option You’ll Find at Tight End

Darren Waller burst onto the scene in 2019, catching 90-of-117 targets for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. The question was whether he could do it again in 2020. He answered the mail and then some. His targets increased to 146 and he caught nine touchdowns, good for 33% of all Derek Carr's passing touchdowns. The Raiders replaced 27-year-old Nelson Agholor and his 82 targets and eight touchdowns with 31-year-old John Brown. Outside of that, not much should change in terms of the passing game. Simply put, Waller rarely comes off the field (he played 93% of offensive snaps last season, second most amongst tight ends), and when he's on the field, he's a target hog. In fact, he had a whopping 27.7% target share a season ago, most amongst all tight ends. That's even higher than Travis Kelce, who had a 23.7% target share in 2020. Waller is a lock for 125+ targets and over 1,100 yards, which makes him an extremely valuable commodity at the thinnest position in all of fantasy football. Prioritize Darren Waller just after Travis Kelce in all league formats this season.

George Kittle 2022 Outlook: The People’s Tight End May Be Fool’s Gold For Fantasy

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle remains one of the more expensive players at his position entering his sixth season. The 28-year-old is consistently regarded as one of the best players in football at any position, but his fantasy production has been somewhat erratic considering his draft capital. Kittle led all tight ends last year with a 92.7% snap share, yet somehow only managed eight red-zone targets. This disconnect may not be a fluke, as his elite blocking skills may favor his usage in the run game when the offense approaches the end zone. With an ADP settling in around 47 as the TE4, just behind Atlanta Falcons Kyle Pitts and ahead of Las Vegas Raiders Darren Waller, his relative ranking among tight ends seems fair. Still, his overall ADP could be a bit high considering the question marks around the offense and his inconsistent role in the passing game. With Trey Lance likely to take the reins at quarterback, Kittle's scoring opportunities could face even more significant challenges due to increased RPOs. It could be worth addressing other positions in the middle rounds of drafts and seeking value at tight end late as opposed to selecting Kittle.