TE Forecasts

Travis Kelce 2021 Outlook: Fantasy MVP Becomes G.O.A.T. Candidate

Travis Kelce is the most valuable player in all of fantasy. He stands alone atop the tight end totem pole, and there are several levels between him and the TE2. He is the elite of fantasy's elite and I wouldn't knock anyone if they took him with the 1.01 (though it's not what I would do). He's finished as the TE1 for five years in a row, and he will do it again in 2021 for an unprecedented sixth consecutive time. Over that span, he's averaged 95 receptions on 134 targets for 1,229 yards and eight touchdowns. I'll wait while you pick your jaw up off the floor. Over his last two seasons, his dominance has become even greater, finishing with 2.1 more points per game than the TE2 in 2019, and 3.3 more last year where he set the record for receiving yards in a season at the position (1,416). He is well on his way to becoming the greatest tight end of all time. Kelce consistently prevails over the field because the Chiefs' offense is explosive, high-scoring, and incredibly creative, which makes it so defenses can't double team Kelce orTyreek Hill will destroy them over the top. As a result, Kelce always finds himself in favorable matchups, and his consistency has made him Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. The tight end landscape is a total crapshoot after the top six or seven guys. Therefore, rostering Kelce gives fantasy players the greatest possible advantage over their opponents because he is so much better than everyone else at his position. His floor is 90 receptions for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. He's a first-round pick in 2021 redraft leagues, and rightfully so. No spot is too early.

Darren Waller 2021 Outlook: As Safe an Option You’ll Find at Tight End

Darren Waller burst onto the scene in 2019, catching 90-of-117 targets for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. The question was whether he could do it again in 2020. He answered the mail and then some. His targets increased to 146 and he caught nine touchdowns, good for 33% of all Derek Carr's passing touchdowns. The Raiders replaced 27-year-old Nelson Agholor and his 82 targets and eight touchdowns with 31-year-old John Brown. Outside of that, not much should change in terms of the passing game. Simply put, Waller rarely comes off the field (he played 93% of offensive snaps last season, second most amongst tight ends), and when he's on the field, he's a target hog. In fact, he had a whopping 27.7% target share a season ago, most amongst all tight ends. That's even higher than Travis Kelce, who had a 23.7% target share in 2020. Waller is a lock for 125+ targets and over 1,100 yards, which makes him an extremely valuable commodity at the thinnest position in all of fantasy football. Prioritize Darren Waller just after Travis Kelce in all league formats this season.

George Kittle 2021 Outlook: Resurgence by the Bay

There were a lot of stars who had seasons shortened by injury last season. From Julio Jones to Dak Prescott, teams lost their best players and it cost them. The same can be said for the 49ers and George Kittle.In his limited action, we saw why he is a top-three TE in the NFL. Unfortunately, he missed half of the year with an ankle injury before inexplicably returning for the 49ers' final two games of this season. If you somehow made your fantasy semi-final without Kittle, you were rewarded, but otherwise, not great for those who took a second-round shot on him. Don't let last season deter you from going back to the Kittle well in 2021. Whether it'sJimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance, either QB knows to get Kittle the ball early and often. If it's Jimmy G, we've seen it. If it's Lance, as the cliche goes, a TE is a rookie QB's best friend. There is no better friend to have than Kittle. He can catch the ball. He blocks as well as anyone at the position, and he just seems like an all-around fun dude.The 49ers are poised to make a run again at the NFC title and get back to the Super Bowl. George Kittle is the best player on this team. He will be instrumental in getting them there. Even with last season being lost, he is still clearly in the top tier of the TE position with Travis Kelce and Darren Wallerand the only TEs worth early-round selections in fantasy drafts. How early? The second round is still not too early for them. They give you so much of a statistical advantage at the position. In 2020, Kittle averaged 3.4 more ppg than the TE4 and 5.6 more ppg than the TE12. Grab him and be set at the position. Otherwise, wait until late in drafts and pick from a handful of everyone else and hope they salvage weeks for you.

Mark Andrews 2021 Outlook: Mark-ed For Redemption

Mark Andrews is one of my favorite players to target this season and he can be had in the sixth round of redraft leagues. Andrews broke out in 2019 to the tune of 64 receptions for 852 yards (13.3 yards per reception) and 10 touchdowns on a snap count of only 41%. He finished as the TE5 in PPR leagues and led the position in deep targets, touchdowns, average depth of target (11.8), and fantasy points per route run. His stellar performance led to an ADP of TE3 at 41st overall last year. Unfortunately, he did not live up to expectations. Andrews finished as the TE6 with 58 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns. His decrease in production can largely be attributed to being Lamar Jackson's favorite target and the focal point of opposing defenses. Despite a down year statistically, he saw his snaps increase to 58% and his target share jump to 24.9%, behind only Travis Kelce and Darren Walleramongst tight ends. If you read between the lines, you can see why I am all in on Andrews for 2021. He was a top-six tight end the past two seasons while playing on the Ravens, who finished 32nd in pass attempts both seasons while playing an average of just 49.5% of snaps. His performance in the red zone also increased in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, and the Ravens target the tight end position the third-most in the league. The Ravens also went out and signed Sammy Watkins, and drafted Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace. The added receivers will help take pressure off of Andrews in the middle of the field, and should lead to more mismatches and efficient targets. I'm expecting Andrews to play upwards of 65% of the snaps this year, and I would happily draft him in the sixth round for his bounce back campaign.

T.J. Hockenson 2021 Outlook: Primed for a Huge Fantasy Season

T.J. Hockenson was one of just five tight ends who reached the century mark in targets last year. Hockenson was drafted with the eighth overall pick and many scouting grades had him not far behind their current grading of Kyle Pitts. It may seem impossible, but when Hockenson was drafted, he had similar hype to Pitts -that's how good of a prospect he was. If you pair that kind of talent with the barren wasteland that makes up the Lions' receiving corps, Hockenson could very well demand a WR1 level target share. If he does, he will immediately be a top-five tight end in 2021. The Lions did take a hit with their quarterback situation, downgrading from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, but Goff is no stranger to the tight end position. Goff was under center when Tyler Higbee became the first tight end since 1970 to record four straight games of at least seven receptions and 100 yards in 2019. Hockenson is set up for a huge year and will produce consistently for fantasy (a phrase neither Mark Andrews nor Robert Tonyan can say confidently). He is the only tight end outside of the big three (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller) I would be willing to reach for and secure in all of my drafts.