TE Forecasts

Travis Kelce 2022 Outlook: Star TE Will Benefit From Less Target Competition

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been the gold standard at the position over the past half-decade. He turned in yet another excellent fantasy season in 2021, finishing with 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. Kelce will be all that remains of Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets over the past few years after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins during the offseason. Hill soaked up 159 targets in 2021, vacating a 25.1% target share in Kansas City. The Chiefs added JuJu Smith-Schuster as a free-agent and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round, but it is Kelce who has the rapport and chemistry with Mahomes. Despite him entering his age 32 season, Kelce remains an elite fantasy asset worth taking as the first tight end off the board as early as the second round in drafts.

Mark Andrews 2022 Outlook: Will Have Every Opportunity to Repeat as the Overall TE1

Mark Andrews completely broke out in 2021. He went from averaging 12.2 PPR points per game in 2020, to a whopping 17.7 PPR points per game last season. He finished the season as the overall TE1, unseating Travis Kelce, who held the honors between 2016 and 2020. But did it come because of higher efficiency, or was it based solely on the Ravens' increase in passing volume? In 2020, Baltimore was dead last in pass attempts per game with 25.9. That led to Andrews seeing just 6.3 targets per game. In 2021, they threw the ball 35.9 times per game, 10 more times than in 2020. As a result, Andrews saw a large spike in targets, up to 9.1 per game. He ran 30.2 routes per game compared to just 23.6 routes per game in 2020. However, his targets per route run (TPRR) rate went from 26.6% in 2020 to 30% in 2021. That metric helps adjust for the increased passing volume in Baltimore and tells us Andrews was being targeted at an even higher rate than he was the year prior. And now Marquise Brown is out of the mix after being traded to Arizona. Brown missed one game last season, and in that game, Andrews saw 10 targets for a target share of 27.8%. He was also tied for fifth in the league last season in targets inside the 10-yard line with 11, two more than Travis Kelce. And he converts on those high-value targets, totaling an astronomical 26 touchdowns over the last three seasons, one more than Kelce over that stretch. The Ravens may not throw it 35.9 times per game this season, but when they do, you know it's going to Andrews. With that said, Kelce could dominate this season without Tyreek Hill, so you could argue for either one of these elite tight ends as the first one off draft boards in 2022.

T.J. Hockenson 2022 NFL Player Outlook: More Competition In A Better Offense

Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson was the projected target leader of a thin receiving corps entering 2021. Unfortunately, injury and inconsistency led to a real disappointing season, finishing as the TE15 with just 62 receptions for 583 yards and four touchdowns. Additionally, what really hurt fantasy managers was producing less than five fantasy points in three of his twelve weeks, including zero total points in Week 9. Detroit's offense was 25th in points per game in 2021, so there is certainly room for improvement. On the other hand, having a healthy D'Andre Swift, the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the signing of D.J. Chark, and moving up in Round 1 to draft Jameson Williams will create a lot more competition for targets. The 24-year-old is immensely talented with proven production, finishing as the TE4 in 2020. He also possesses high draft capital, taken 8th overall in the 2019 draft, which is incredibly early for a tight end. Hockenson is currently ranked 6th in Rotoballer's rankings with an ADP of 74 overall, requiring a bet on talent and an improved offense for him to return value compared to other players in that range.

Kyle Pitts 2022 Player Outlook – Atlanta’s Top Target By a Landslide

Many tight ends have a large learning curve to overcome in their rookie campaign. Not Pitts, who was able to have a 1,000-yard year in his first NFL season. Despite dealing with constant double coverage due to Atlanta's below-average receiving corps, Pitts managed to break the 50-yard mark in 10 games and the 100-yard barrier in three contests. His big fantasy flaw, however, was that he was unable to do much inside the red zone that turned into a trip to the end zone. Pitts was almost shut out of scoring as he only mustered up one touchdown during his otherwise spectacular season. The fantasy managers who hoped the Falcons would upgrade their receiving corps in the offseason to free up Pitts against secondaries must be sorely disappointed that their lackluster wideout group got worse. Despite drafting USC product Drake London in the first round, the Falcons lost Calvin Ridley to a year-long suspension and Russell Gage to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so Pitts' chances of not being double-covered as often are not any better. Also going against Pitts is that Marcus Mariota will be his quarterback and not Matt Ryan. Pitts should have no trouble providing value for his fantasy managers in the receptions and yards departments and should score a few more touchdowns in his sophomore season. He is a top-five fantasy TE, but do not be surprised if the Falcons prevent him from being the fantasy demigod in 2022 he is destined to be.

Dallas Goedert 2022 Player Outlook – Finally Philadelphia's Top Tight End

Goedert finally did not have to share time and targets with former tight end teammate Zach Ertz in 2021, and he proved he can be a fantasy force when he is Philadelphia's top tight end. He set a career-high with 830 receiving yards and helped his fantasy managers when they needed him most at the end of the year by racking up 21 receptions for 339 yards and two touchdowns over his last four games of the season. Goedert's fantasy value was not damaged with scrambler Jalen Hurts as his quarterback, and he became the Eagles' No. 2 option in its passing attack behind rookie playmaker DeVonta Smith. While Goedert has no competition behind him on the depth chart, he now has to contend with newly-acquired A.J. Brown taking targets away from him. The addition of Brown does not bode well for Goedert's target totals, especially since he is in a run-first offense with Hurts at the helm. It is easy to pencil Goedert in for 60 catches, 800 yards and six-to-eight touchdowns, but it is hard to fathom him doing more than that if there are not more pass plays called. Expect Goedert to be a solid fantasy contributor once again as a TE1. Just don't expect him to have a Mark Andrews-like season in 2022.