OBJ Trade Breakdown
The Giant has landed. Repeat! The Giant has landed… in Cleveland.
On the night of March 12, 2019, the Cleveland Browns pulled off the massive deal with the New York Giants, trading superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Browns for a first-round pick in 2019 (No. 17 overall), the Browns’ second third-round pick this year and safety Jabril Peppers, source tells ESPN via Adam Schefter on Twitter. So what’s the fantasy impact here for both teams?
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were already flexing their upside entering the 2019 offseason, and the upward swing continues for the once torn franchise. Their starting offense now features alongside OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and tight end David Njoku. Not to mention supplemental wide receivers like Antonio Callaway and possibly the return of Rashard Higgins. The one impact from the OBJ trade did influence the landing spot of Breshad Perriman who had initially signed a 1-year deal with the Browns. However that signing has all been rescinded since the Browns acquired OBJ. Perriman signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shortly after. In summary, the Browns have done everything they can to build an offense around Baker Mayfield that look to rival even the Kansas City Chiefs as one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Mayfield was already a star in the making. Mayfield broke the record for passing touchdowns by a rookie (27) and had the second-highest overall grade by Pro Football Focus by a rookie QB since 2006 behind just Russell Wilson. The Browns have made the correct coaching hires with the success of Mayfield in mind. Head coach Freddie Kitchens will be in charge in 2019, and that means wheels up for Mayfield. Keeping Baker in the Kitchens was wise by Cleveland because his numbers were better with him calling the plays.
In the last eight games of the season with Kitchens at the helm, the Browns went 5-3. Mayfield compiled a 108.1 passer rating with 19 TDs and 8 INTs. That was the fifth highest QBR of all QBs during the last nine weeks of the season. Mayfield also averaged 19 fantasy points per game over this time span ranking him as the number QB10 over that timespan. He was just sacked five times under the Kitchens’ offense compared to the 20 sacks in the Todd Haley offense. Mayfield benefits tremendously, from Odell Beckham Jr, and will finish at worst as a top-ten quarterback in fantasy football leagues in 2019.
How impactful can OBJ with his QB? Well, Eli Manning since 2013 in games without OBJ (36 games) averaged 15.79 fantasy points per game. In 59 games with OBJ? 21.07 fantasy points per game. That’s a 28.6% increase in fantasy production. That’s a lot. Buy Baker Mayfield in fantasy anywhere and everywhere you can in 2019. But how about OBJ? Can he remain a top-five wide receiver option in fantasy football? The answer is yes.
The Browns were missing exactly what OBJ offers: A dominant pass-catcher on the outside. That’s why I liked Higgins as a cheap player to buy in dynasty fantasy football a month or so ago. OBJ fits the mold perfectly. What Landry showed last year was not enough to get Mayfield and the Browns to the next level. He was too inefficient. Landry’s fantasy points per target (.92) was worst on the Browns at the wide receiver position outside of Damion Ratley. Higgins’ fantasy points per target (1.47) was second highest at the wide receiver position behind Perriman (1.85). Then there’s the idea that any production that Perriman created last season will now be attributed to future production for OBJ, but ten-fold. Perriman led the team in yards per route run and QB rating when targeted last season. Odell Beckham Jr. will be a top wide receiver fantasy option in 2019.
If there is any “loser” of this trade its Jarvis Landry. Landry has always seen success from total volume, and when you are not long the “alpha” in your offense the fantasy numbers will go down. Pairing Landry and Beckham in real-life is an excellent move but the real-life Browns, but for fantasy…not as much.
New York Giants
An expansion team with a 38-year old quarterback – Peter King on the New York Giants current state of the franchise. They are a mess right now, but there is one silver lining in the Giants’ offense outside Saqoun Barkley: tight end Evan Engram. Engram in his two seasons in the NFL has shown one thing consistently. When OBJ is out of the lineup, he puts up numbers. In 11 games with OBJ, Engram averaged nine fantasy points per game. In 15 games without OBJ, Engram averages 13.31 fantasy points per game. There’s a chance that even though there is more hype around Browns’ tight end Njoku right now, that Engram is the better option because he is more likely to demand a high-target market share with fewer pass-catchers on New York. Now, this does open opportunities for guys like Sterling Shepard or perhaps a future rookie to step up.
Shepard like Engram scores more fantasy points (13) without OBJ, than with him (11), but not as high to the extent as Engram. What it really opens the door for in New York is that they will most likely invest highly in wide receivers in the NFL Draft. However, the interest will be low in fantasy football drafts, unless the Giants decide to address the quarterback situation as well in the draft. Only time will tell. And with Dave Gettleman calling the shots, anything can happen. Just don’t draft Eli Manning.
Final Thoughts
Coach and GM speak should always be taken with a grain of salt. Especially repeat offenders. Exhibit A:
Jan. 2nd: David Gettleman “We didn”t sign Odell to trade him.”
March 12th: Odell Beckham traded to the Browns. pic.twitter.com/koW1GlsrkZ
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) March 13, 2019
