We remember O.J Howard right? The former first-round pick who was supposed to be a huge breakout star in 2019 that found himself finishing with only 34 receptions due to the fact that the Buccaneers used him almost exclusively as a blocker? Yes, that’s the guy officer. Howard’s arrested development was no fault of his own, in fact, the only crime that the former Alabama star was guilty of was being in the right place at the wrong time. Like Howard last season, here are five players who could be in danger of running into the same issue.
(Note: Leonard Fournette was supposed to be on this list before he was waived by the Jaguars on August 31st.)
TE Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Hooper signed a massive deal to take over the starting tight end role from David Njoku. Once news broke of Hooper’s new deal it was assumed that Njoku would not be on the Browns roster this fall, as the luxury of having two starting-caliber tight ends is rarely afforded to teams like Cleveland with needs across the board.
For Hooper is joining an offense that already features an accomplished WR duo with Pro Bowl credentials (Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry), a RB group led by two dominant pass-catching backs (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt), and a pair of high upside rookies (Mackey Award-winning TE Harrison Bryant and former five-star recruit WR Donovan Peoples-Jones) along with Njoku (who still hasn’t been traded). With so many mouths to feed it’s entirely possible that Hooper finds himself in a role similar to what we saw from Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota’s offense (where Hooper’s new HC Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator) last season when the veteran TE finished as the TE14 in most formats on the strength of his six touchdown receptions. Given the personnel similarities between Cleveland’s roster this year and Minnesota’s from 2019, we can expect Stefanski to install a nearly identical scheme on offense. If my hypothesis is true, then we could expect Hooper’s target share to resemble Rudolph’s measly 11.6% share from last season. Hooper’s breakout in 2019 was largely due to his 18.5% target share, which would have been much larger had he not missed three games with a lower-body injury. Perhaps more importantly, Rudolph’s already unimpressive target share was largely inflated due to the injuries that WR Adam Thielen dealt with for most of the season, as only 18.6% of the tight end’s total targets came prior to Thielen’s initial injury in Week 7. Though Rudolph — like Hooper — is a superbly talented player, Stefanski relegated him to blocking and red zone duty as a receiver more often than not last season, so we can only assume he will do the same with Hooper.
It’s entirely possible that Bryant will cut into Hooper’s snap count this season, as the draft capital invested into him suggests that the Browns value his skill set. Considering the fact that Baker Mayfield targeted the position on only 12.9% throws last season, any fantasy managers who have a stake in Hooper as their TE1 could be sorely disappointed.
TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller was a league-winner for many teams last season, as the breakout star paced the Raiders offense in nearly every receiving category. Waller’s 117 targets were the third-most among all tight ends last season, trailing only Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. Yet as excellent of a pass-catching threat as Waller has become, the 6’6 converted wideout has little to offer as a blocker, grading out as the 40th best run-blocking tight end in the league last season per Pro Football Focus. With veteran TE Jason Witten coming on board, as well as a pair of dynamic rookie receivers (Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards) it’s possible that Waller sees a heavily diminished role in this offense. While the idea of a Pro Bowl tight end coming off of a career-year being phased out of an offense seems ludicrous, we’ve seen plenty of one-year wonders at the position in the past, from guys like Gary Barnidge, Tyler Eifert, and Gary Barnidge. Waller thrived in the chaos that was the Raiders offense following the tumultuous tenure of Antonio Brown. As the only holdover from the previous season’s team, Waller’s familiarity with the offense made him an immediate go-to target for Derek Carr, a passer who notoriously loves to throw short passes. The Raiders seem keen on building a run-heavy offense around RB Josh Jacobs, but to do so properly they must have a capable run-blocking tight end in the fold. Should Waller fail to improve in this area he may very well lose out on a significant amount of snaps to Witten and second-year tight end Foster Moreau (when he returns from his knee injury).
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans has been the heart and soul of the Buccaneers offense ever since the team drafted him in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. With at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of his NFL seasons up to this point, Evans is on a historical pace to become one of the all-time great receivers. Almost every season we are flooded with Mike Evans doomsday talk, with analysts projecting the former Texas A&M star to finally regress. While none have been correct to this point, the arrival of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay could be a terrible harbinger for Evans. Much has been made of Brady’s struggles throwing the deep ball in recent years. Yet a look at some of the advanced metrics actually shows that Brady is a much more efficient deep ball thrower than Evans’ previous battery mate Jameis Winston. Using Fantasy Data’s Advanced Metrics tool, I found that from 2017-2019 Winston completed only 33.47% of his deep throws while Brady completed 39.06% of his attempts of this nature. Though this aspect bodes well for Evans, who averaged 9.8 YPT last season, the Buccaneers offense appears to be moving in a different direction than the wide-open passing attack catalyzed by Winston in 2019. With Brady, a pocket passer who loves to dish the ball out to his running backs, slot receivers, and tight ends, taking the reins under center, Evans could see a significantly lower target volume this season. While Winston had 113 deep passing attempts last season, Brady had only 60. Sure, the Patriots ran a different offense with much worse personnel, but to expect a 43-year-old QB to double his deep passing attempts is nuts. Chris Godwin already usurped Evans as the No. 1 receiver last season, operating primarily out of the slot. Until we see the chemistry between Evans and Brady in real-time it’s tough to have high hopes, particularly with Brady’s good friend and longtime target hog Rob Gronkowski now in the fold as well.
WR Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
Though he’s never been a true No. 1 receiver, Kirk has filled this role competently through his first two seasons in the league with Arizona. A dynamic athlete with tremendous ability to gain separation, the 2018 second-round pick dazzled in his first year as the featured receiver in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, finishing as the PPR WR37 despite missing three games and playing through a nasty ankle injury in many others. Unfortunately for Kirk, his spot at the top has been usurped by DeAndre Hopkins. In most offenses, the role of WR2 would still offer decent upside, however Kirk could find himself buried in 4-WR sets if he is used primarily on the boundary. With Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella expected to work out of the slot and Hopkins operating in Kirk’s role from last season, the former Texas A&M standout will have to be more efficient with the targets he does receive, as his 6.6 YPT from last season will not equate to good fantasy production with diminished targets. While I wouldn’t completely rule out Kirk thriving in a role that will take much of the defense’s attention away from him, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Arizona and his could be the hardest to get to depending on where he lines up on the field.
