The Sentry Tournament of Champions
DFS PGA Tour Golf Picks
The Sentry Tournament of Champions
Preview for the Sentry Tournament of Champions: Happy new year everyone – welcome to 2023! It’s great to have PGA Tour golf back in our lives and the 2022-2023 season resumes with the Sentry Tournament of Champions up next. This tournament has been played since 1953 with Al Besselink winning with a score of -8 – one better than Chandler Harper. Over the last five years, winners of the Sentry Tournament of Champions include Cameron Smith in 2022, Harris English in 2021, Justin Thomas in 2020, Xander Schauffele in 2019, and Dustin Johnson in 2018.
Get in the money more consistently in your PGA DFS contests and other sports leagues, including the NFL, by utilizing insightful player analytics and projections.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $15M, the winner collects a ridiculous $2.7M and also earns himself 550 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The venue for this week is at Kapalua Resort – Plantation Course which is 7,596 yards in length, is a rare par 73, and the massive greens feature Bermudagrass. The winning score over the last five years ranges from -14 to -34, so the wind obviously plays a huge factor in scoring here. The record at this event came just last year when Cameron Smith took advantage of pristine playing conditions to shoot an insane -34 which was surprisingly only one stroke better than Jon Rahm. Some key stats to factor in this week are strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: around the green, driving distance, strokes gained: tee to green, and strokes gained: total. All of these key stats are highly correlated to past success, so building custom models this week will be imperative.
The field: We have a small 39-player field this week, and every golfer will play all four rounds barring any withdrawal(s). We have 17 of the top 20 golfers in the world in action this week, but unfortunately, we’re missing the top-ranked golfer in Rory McIlroy. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Three questions that are relevant to the Sentry Tournament of Champions this week:
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland.
- Which 10 players does my custom model like the most? Jon Rahm, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Aaron Wise, Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, Seamus Power, Will Zalatoris, Mackenzie Hughes, and Viktor Hovland.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at this event since 2018? Brian Harman (4 rounds), Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele (all three golfers with 20 rounds), Collin Morikawa (12 rounds), Sungjae Im (8 rounds), Patrick Cantlay (16 rounds), JT Poston (4 rounds), Scottie Scheffler (4 rounds), and Jordan Spieth (8 rounds).
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are (in no particular order) 15 DFS golf picks on DraftKings (DK), plus I also include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last five years, and add in some tasty data.
15 Players Who Are High Value Plays This Week – Get Them Into Your DFS Lineups
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – Rahm has been lights out for quite some time now with seven top 10’s over his last eight starts, and that other finish was a 12th at the U.S. Open. He has succulent stats, won two starts ago in Mexico, and finished runner-up here last year and in 2018, so he should be plenty motivated to do one better and hoist the trophy this year. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – 2nd, 2021 – T7, 2020 – T10, 2019 – T8, and 2018 – 2nd.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – JT will be licking his lips this week as he’s a two-time winner here and he has been playing fairly well lately with two top 5’s over his last three starts. His putter has been cold since last June, but I think he will be fine on the familiar greens this week and his ball striking on this track has been absolutely spectacular over the years gaining 29+ strokes since 2019. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T5, 2021 – T3, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T3, and 2018 – T22.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – The #2 ranked player in the world has been rolling along great over his last six starts with a 2nd, a T2, two T3’s, and a T9 during that stretch. Once he regains his strong short game play he will be very hard to beat since his ball-striking is consistently strong. His game has evolved a ton since his T13 here two years ago – expect him to be in contention this week if his putter returns to form. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – I wish he played more because he’s a beauty to watch and is a strong contender this week given his outstanding all-around game. He has been a top 10 dynamo over the past two seasons and if he plays to strengths this week as he should, then he could absolutely win it all. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T4, 2021 – T13, and 2020 – T4.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – The 2019 winner of this tournament has played incredible golf since his back-to-back wins at the Travelers Championship and the Genesis Scottish Open, and he has added another four top 9’s since then in six starts. He should finish somewhere in the top 5 this week, and could become a two-time champ here come Sunday. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T12, 2021 – T5, 2020 – T2, 2019 – Won, and 2018 – T22.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – Here’s another player with all-world potential but just needs to find a smooth putting stroke again to start racking up the wins again. He’s coming off a 6th at the Hero World Challenge and has three straight top 7’s at this venue gaining almost 18 strokes ball-striking since 2020. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T5, 2021 – T7, and 2020 – T7.
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – Finau has been really winning since late July with three victories and three other top 9’s over his last eight starts. He hasn’t been so great here just yet in three starts, but did have a T9 in 2017. He hasn’t caught onto these greens for some reason losing almost 6 strokes over the years, so if he can clean that up – he should be able to make some noise in Hawaii. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T19 and 2021 – T31.
Tom Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – Kim is such a talented young man with unreal ball-striking abilities and he can really pop with his putter, so he’s dangerous. He has two wins over his last seven starts and three other top 13’s during that stretch. He’s a rookie at this event so it’s hard to say exactly what he’ll do, but if he plays to his DNA – he should secure a top 10. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: None.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – Wise ranks 4th in my model for this week thanks to a strong short game, and he’s also 8th in strokes gained total over his last 20 rounds. His game has evolved a ton since his debut here four years ago and I just can’t overlook him this week, especially considering his attractive price point on DK. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T27.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – He’s heating up again with a win at the Bermuda Championship three starts ago, then he followed that up with a T3 at the World Wide Championship at Mayakoba, and went on to earn a T5 at The RSM Classic. He has a sound short game and is coming off a great ball-striking performance at The RSM Classic where he gained 5.73 strokes. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T15.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – 8.3K) – He has two excellent finishes here over the last two years and has played very well since late July with three T2’s, a 7th, and an 8th over his last nine starts. He’s solid throughout his bag and is well-positioned for another top 5 or top 10 finish this week. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T8 and 2021 – T5.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Harman is dialed in right now with a 2nd two starts ago at the World Wide Championship at Mayakoba and is coming off a T2 at The RSM Classic. He hasn’t played here in 5 years but had a T3 in 2018 thanks to almost gaining strokes across the board except for a modest 0.20 loss off the tee. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T3.
Max Homa (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Homa ranks out 2nd in my model this week and is tops in strokes gained around the green over his last 20 rounds. He won at the Fortinet Championship in mid-September and has six consecutive top 23’s. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T15 and 2020 – T25.
Mackenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – If putting here is indeed more important than on any other track on the PGA Tour, then sign me up for Hughes as he has been a great putter throughout his career and is 1st in the field in strokes gained putting over his last 20 rounds and 6th in strokes gained around the green. He also won just four starts ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship, so that’s a nice positive, as well. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 41st.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – Nothing stands out with Hovland in terms of his stat lines since last March, but he’s coming off the defense win at the Hero World Challenge a month ago, and has three top 10’s over his last four starts. He has been downright brutal with his short game play at this tournament losing 14+ strokes over the last two years, so if he can find a way to figure out the greens and his around the green play, then he should do just fine. Sentry Tournament of Champions finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T30 and 2021 – T31.
