Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads from Jackson, Mississippi, to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the Shriners Children’s Open. We have 144 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties at the conclusion of round 2 will move on to play the weekend rounds.
There’s $8M to be won this week, the winner secures $1.44M and also nails down 500 FedEx Cup points. TPC Summerlin is 7,255 yards in length, is a par 71, and the big greens are bentgass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last decade is -20.4, so expect lots of birdies and low scores this week. Place bets on golfers who are solid putters, are sound around greens, hit a long ball, have a strong approach game, and are accurate off the tee blocks.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the Shriners Children’s Open this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts? Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im have 3, and a few players have 2 including Max Homa, Tom Kim, and Taylor Montgomery.
2. Which players have the most top 10’s at the Shriners Children’s Open over the last five years? Patrick Cantlay has a ridiculous 4, Adam Hadwin has 2, and Chesson Hadley also has 2.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total here (4 rounds minimum) since 2017? Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Harry Hall, Hayden Buckley, Justin Suh, Adam Hadwin, Matthew NeSmith, Chad Ramey, K.H. Lee, and Matt Wallace.
Below you will find players that I will bet, I might bet, and won’t bet. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable in roughly 75% of the weeks I’m active.
Quick Links:
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Patrick Cantlay (+600) – He’s in supreme form right now and his record here is second-to-none, so he makes for a no-brainer bet to win, finish top 5, and finish top 10. His odds are really short which is the only negative, so up your betting amounts and you should fare well with Cantlay this week.
Sungjae Im (+900) – The defending champ is back for more this year and why not as he has three top 15’s here since 2018. He has been knocking on the door to win as he has three T2’s over his last five starts including one at the Tour Championship. He hasn’t won since last year’s Shriners, and seems super motivated to come out on top sooner rather than later. I’ll be betting him to win, finish top 10, and finish top 20 – the latter of the three I’ll be betting super-aggressively since he seems like a shoo-in to have his fourth straight top 15 here.
Tom Hoge (+5000) – Hoge has three top 12’s over his last five starts including a T12 at the Fortinet Championship when he gained 5.49 strokes ball-striking and 2.89 putting. He has had three top 24’s here since 2017 including a T7 five years ago and a T14 last year. I’ll be betting him to finish top 10 and top 20 this week, and you should consider his services, as well.
Andrew Putnam (+6000) – With two top 18’s here over the last three years, Putnam is in play this week especially given he gained 6.32 strokes on approach last year and 3.93 putting. He has five top 30’s over his last six starts and is absolutely killing it with his short game – perfect for this week based on the key stats above. I think the play here is a top 20 bet, but I may also look at a top 10 if I’m feeling frisky on Wednesday evening.
Matthew NeSmith (+8000) – We have some nice converging trends happening right now with NeSmith as he’s coming off a T9 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he has finished T8 to T18 here over the last three years with solid stats throughout. I’m more than likely going to bet him to finish top 10 and top 20 this week.
5 Players That I Might Bet
Aaron Wise (+1800) – Wise has been quite good at this venue with three top 15’s since 2016 including his T8 last year when he gained strokes in all major stat categories. We haven’t seen him play yet this season, but he finished last season off strong with three top 15’s in his last four starts thanks to great ball-striking and good putting. I believe I’ll be betting Wise this week and if I do, it will be with a top 10 and top 20 wager.
Tom Kim (+2200) – I have been betting Kim like crazy lately and probably won’t stop now since his ball-striking is amazing and he regularly gets it done with his short game as well aside from the two playoff events he competed in last season. He won the Wyndham Championship four starts ago and seems to be a constant threat to finish top 10. If I bet Tom this week, I’ll likely do a top 5, 10, and 20 wager.
Thomas Detry (+6000) – I really like Detry’s odds based on his current hot streak as he has three straight top 12’s including a T9 last week. He’s a rock with his short game as he has gained strokes in his last nine measured events, and he’s quite good off the tee also. I might bet him to win, and will more than likely bet him to finish top 10 and top 20.
Emiliano Grillo (+5000) – We have really seen a big career turnaround by Grillo since July with two T2’s, a T5 last week, and five consecutive top 31’s. If his off the tee game and putter stay hot, then he will likely be in contention again this week. I’ll likely shell out some money to bet him to finish top 20, and may get into top 10 territory. I don’t like that his best finish here in four starts is a T34, but he’s capable of so much more.
Beau Hossler (+13000) – He hasn’t been outstanding for a while now, but is coming off a T25 at the Fortinet Championship when he gained 5.76 strokes on approach and 3.82 with his short game. The best part of his betting prospects this week is that he has finished T7 to T34 here between 2017 and 2020, and seems poised to lock down another top 40 this week – that’s how I’m betting Hossler.
5 Players That I Won’t Bet
Max Homa (+1400) – This one could blow up in my face as Homa has been quite strong for a while now, but he can’t seem to solve this course as he has four missed cuts and a T30 which came nine years ago. If you are all about recent history and don’t care about past results, then bet Max this week, but if you factor in the latter, then maybe hold off.
Keith Mitchell (+5000) – Here’s another player who could prove me wrong this week, but he hasn’t competed since the BMW Championship last year and hasn’t been that good with his short game since mid-July. He has also yet to make the cut here in four appearances and has been quite weak on approach and with the flat stick.
Jason Day (+9000) – He did great here ten years ago with a 4th, but in his last start here in 2020 he missed the cut and lost strokes in most of the major stat categories including 4.72 with his short game. He has two straight missed cuts, a withdraw three starts ago, and his best finish since mid-May is a T17 which came at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in a very weak field. If his putter remains cold this week, then he’s absolutely headed for another missed cut.
Gary Woodland (+7500) – Woodland has three missed cuts in his last five starts and his best finish during that stretch was a T51. He lost 5.85 strokes on the greens last week, and if he does anything remotely close to that again, he will miss the cut by several strokes since putting matters this week on these big greens.
Maverick McNealy (+6500) – The only good thing about McNealy’s game is his great putting, the rest is either average to below average, especially his approach play. He is 1/4 here and his best finish came three years ago when he finished T37 thanks to gaining 8.11 strokes with his short game and that’s unlikely to happen again this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
