Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Championship Week
Week 16. This is what all those months of grinding were all about. From reading sleeper articles back in May to absorbing every bit of advice you could read since September, all that effort paid off and you have advanced to the championship game. Congratulations on an amazing season!
Of course, we still have one more week to win and they don’t come any bigger than Week 16. It remains imperative that you arm yourself with the best information and make your most informed lineup decisions now more than ever. Knowing which undervalued players make solid starts and which stars should be avoided remains crucial towards getting that final victory.
Here are the final starts and sits of the 2020 fantasy football season. It’s been a wild ride. Good luck in your quest to finish it strong!
Start
Le’Veon Bell (RB) Kansas City Chiefs – First-round rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to miss the rest of the regular season which means that veteran RB Le’Veon Bell has a clear path to 15-20 touches for one of the league’s most prolific offenses. Bell is a talented pass-catching weapon in addition to averaging over four yards per carry and scoring a couple of rushing TDs in limited action behind CEH. Week 16 doesn’t mean a whole lot to Kansas City, so we could see an even bigger emphasis placed on Bell and the rushing attack as the Chiefs host an Atlanta team that hasn’t had much success stopping any opponent this season.
Ito Smith (RB) Atlanta Falcons – Interim head coach anointed Smith as the team’s lead back ahead of Todd Gurley and Brian Hill. Smith has led the backfield in snaps in each of the past two weeks and led the group in both carries (6) and targets (3) against the Bucs. With Gurley declining, Smith should once again lead the Falcons in playing time in Week 16 and his usage in the passing game makes him a viable RB3/flex play in a game where Atlanta should once again be trailing- except throughout instead of just the final two minutes. Smith should get 8-10 carries but he also has the chance to rack up some targets against a Kansas City defense that surrenders almost 25 fantasy points per game to enemy running backs.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR) New Orleans Saints – With Michael Thomas on IR with an ankle injury, Emmanuel Sanders has reverted to WR1 status for the Saints, who have a Christmas gift in the form of a home matchup against a generous Minnesota secondary on Friday. QB Drew Brees returned last week and looked shaky before finishing the game with three scores. Sanders paced the New Orleans receiving corps with 5 targets, 4 grabs, and 76 yards against the Chiefs and has performed well with Brees under center. Earlier this year, with Thomas sidelined and Brees starting, Sanders averaged nearly 6 catches and 73 receiving yards per game on 7.75 targets as the Saints’ No. 1 receiver.
Darnell Mooney (WR) Chicago Bears – Mooney has been one of the main benefactors of the surprising recent resurgence by QB Mitchell Trubisky. Winners of two straight, the Bears are back in NFC wild-card contention thanks to Trubisky’s play and Mooney has found the end-zone in both contests. Since Trubsiky started in Week 12, Mooney has been in on over 81% of the Bears’ offensive snaps and accumulated 5-plus targets in three of those four games. This week, Mooney gets a shot at a Jacksonville secondary that is ceding almost 40 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
Austin Hooper (TE) Cleveland Browns – Tight end has more or less become a weekly streaming/dart throw position for the majority of fantasy managers who missed out on the handful of consistent starters. Austin Hooper has not been a consistent source of volume but he recorded multiple receptions in his last four contests and has some major streaming appeal this week against an awful New York Jets pass defense. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Jets, who have surrendered 7 tight end touchdowns in their last five games and double-digit fantasy points in 10-of-15.
Sit
Russell Wilson (QB) Seattle Seahawks – Fantasy manager lucky enough to snag Russell Wilson in their drafts undoubtedly got off to a fast start. Wilson had three-plus touchdowns in seven of Seattle’s first eight contests and entered the second half of the season with 29 total scores. Since Week 9, Wilson has cooled off considerably. He’s only thrown for one score in three of the past four games and is averaging a paltry 203.4 passing yards per game since Week 11. This run-first approach is working for the Seahawks but Wilson hasn’t been posting QB1 numbers for quite some time and it’s hard to see that changing here in Week 16 against the Los Angeles Rams’ top-ranked pass defense.
Mike Davis (RB) Carolina Panthers – Davis has been one of the biggest waiver wire heroes of the 2020 season and done an admirable job filling in for Christian McCaffrey. Speaking of CMC, it is possible that the Panthers will try to get him back onto the field this week, even though that makes no sense in the grand scheme of a 4-10 season. Even if McCaffrey is out once again with a thigh injury, Davis will be challenged to put up top RB2 numbers against a Washington squad that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. After averaging 20.8 PPR points per game from Weeks 2-6, Davis has settled down to 11.9 PPR points per game in the past eight. Only one back has topped 12 PPR points against the Football Team in their last four games, and Davis could be the next to struggle this week.
Raheem Mostert (RB) San Francisco 49ers- While the Cardinals are above average against the run, it’s lack of usage, not opponent, that makes Mostert a bit of a shaky option in Week 16. Mostert has only seen 14 carries in each of San Francisco’s past two games and wasn’t targeted at all against Dallas. In for 40 snaps against Washington in Week 14, the 49ers were forced to go pass-heavy in Dallas and Mostert’s dipped to just 25 snaps. Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson logged 39 snaps against the Cowboys and continues to get the vast majority of short-yardage opportunities. Now eliminated from playoff contention, the 49ers enter Week 16 as 4-point underdogs in Arizona, which isn’t the best game script for a Mostert rebound.
Marquise Brown (WR) Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore’s offense has stepped it up over the past month and Brown has started to live up to his “Hollywood” monkier again. Over the Ravens’ past four games, Brown has averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game after failing to top double-digit points in even once from Weeks 6-11. A lot of that December success has come via a soft schedule but a looming Week 16 matchup with an underrated New York Giants’ pass defense will be a challenge. Brown should spend a considerable amount of Sunday shadowed by Giants’ cornerback James Bradberry, who has an excellent 78.4 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus this season.
Tyler Lockett (WR) Seattle Seahawks – As Russell Wilson’s numbers have plummeted, Tyler Lockett’s fantasy value has fallen off of a cliff. After opening 2020 with seven touchdowns in Seattle’s first six games, Lockett has been borderline un-startable since.
Tyler Lockett has finished as a top-30 wide receiver once since October 🗣️🗣️🗣️
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 16, 2020
Lockett hasn’t craked 70 yards since his blowup, 200-yard performance in Arizona back in Week 7. He hasn’t even mustered double-digit PPR points in half of the Seahawks’ last eight games and has scored just one touchdown. Even if Rams’ cornerback Jalen Ramsey shadows DK Metcalf this week, Lockett’s consistent lack of production against far more favorable opponents make him little more than a desperation WR3/4 in a game that opened with the second-lowest over/under of the entire Week 16 slate.
Eric Ebron (TE) Pittsburgh Steelers – Ebron exited Monday night’s loss after taking a hard hit and injuring his back. Even if he’s able to recover this week and be active for Week 16, Ebron is a player to fade. The reeling Steelers, losers of three straight after opening the campaign 11-0, host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Only one tight end has topped 65 yards against Indy all season and the Colts have allowed only two scores to the position. While Ebron does rank seventh among all tight ends with 84 targets, he doesn’t have much upside in Week 16, healthy or not.
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