Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4

Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em is the definitive weekly study of NFL Matchups and the effect they’ll have on your fantasy football team. It will not focus on obvious players like Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, or Travis Kelce. All player matchups are based on PPR formats. The column will leverage all of the stats, advanced metrics and other resources available at FantasyData. For your final starting lineup decisions, please review our weekly fantasy football rankings. You can also reach out to me on Twitter (@EricNMoody).

The third week of the 2019 NFL season was defined by unbelievable performances. Russell Wilson became the first player since 1950 with 400 or more passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 50 or more rushing yards, and two or more rushing touchdowns in a game according to NFL Research. Dalvin Cook is the first NFL player with 100 or more rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in each of the first three games of a season since DeMarco Murray in 2014 according to Pro Football Reference. Keenan Allen set a new career-high in receiving yards with 183. Austin Hooper became the first Falcons tight end with two or more receiving touchdowns since Tony Gonzalez in Week 4, 2013 according to Pro Football Reference. 

Are you staring at your fantasy football starting lineup this week wondering what happened? You put together an amazing team during the draft. Others in your league were envious of the players you had on your bench. There was only one problem. You left points on your bench. This shortcoming may have cost you a victory in Week 3. Are you aware of the old adage “start your studs”? If the answer is yes then it’s time to erase that phrase from your memory. It’s okay to take informed risks. These are risks in which the calculated potential payoff outweighs the calculated possible loss, given the knowledge someone has about the circumstances. You’re in the right place to accelerate that change. Without further ado, here are my recommendations for Week 4.

QUARTERBACKS

Start Philip Rivers

Chargers at Dolphins

Rivers completed 31 of 46 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns in a loss against the Texans. This was his 64th game with 300 or more passing yards according to Pro Football Reference. Keenan Allen accounted for 57.5 percent of Rivers’ passing yards. The rapport between these two players is obvious. Rivers has averaged 279 passing yards per game since Allen’s rookie season back in 2013 to 2018. The only other quarterbacks averaging more passing yards per game than Rivers (314.6) entering Week 4 are Andy Dalton (326) and Patrick Mahomes (398). He is averaging 22 fantasy points per game this season. Rivers faces a Dolphins defense allowing nearly 500 yards per game. He’s a QB1 in Week 4. 

Start Matthew Stafford

Lions vs Chiefs

Stafford was inconsistent in the Lions win over the Eagles. He completed 18 of 32 passes for 201 yards and one touchdown. Stafford is averaging 277 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game this season. He’ll have an opportunity to help the Lions get back on track offensively on their home field against a Chiefs defense allowing 396 yards per game. The Lions offense will have to be aggressive to keep up with the explosive Chiefs offense. Kansas City is averaging 487 total yards per game. Stafford can be viewed as a low-end QB1 in Week 4. 

Start Daniel Jones

Giants vs Redskins

Is Jones a QB1 for the rest of the season? The answer is yes. Jones completed 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards and two scores in an exhilarating victory against the Buccaneers. His mobility was also on full display with four rushing attempts for 28 yards and two touchdowns. Jones became the first rookie QB in the Super Bowl era with 300 or more passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns in a game according to NFL Research. The rookie revitalized the Giants offense and he did something that Eli Manning never could. Win an NFL football game when trailing by 18 points or more. Jones is on the QB1 radar against a Redskins defense allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game. 

Start Kyle Allen

Panthers at Texans

It’s an understatement to say that Cam Newton struggled the first two weeks of the 2019 season. The former MVP’s accuracy was horrendous and it was clear he was hampered by a foot injury. Allen completed 19 of 26 passes for 261 yards and four touchdowns in the Panthers win over the Cardinals. This performance shouldn’t be a surprise. Allen was solid last season in limited spot duty. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 266 receiving yards and two touchdowns over two games. Allen also rushed for 19 yards and one touchdown. He is the first QB in Pro Football Reference’s database to throw 6 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and go undefeated in his first two career starts. The Texans secondary has allowed two opposing QBs to throw for 300 or more passing yards so far this season. 

Sit Josh Allen

Bills vs Patriots

Allen is currently the QB9 entering Week 4. He completed 22 of 36 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown and an interception in the Bills win over the Bengals. Allen also had nine rushing attempts for 46 yards. His play continues to be up and down. Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense will make him pay for bad decision making. New England’s defense has not allowed a touchdown in three games. The Jets two touchdowns were from Patriots turnovers. One was a fumble on a kick return and the other was an interception return for a touchdown from Jarett Stidham. The Patriots defense has only allowed 199 yards. Allen’s mental toughness will be tested in Week 4. 

RUNNING BACKS

Start Chris Thompson

Redskins at Giants

Thompson rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Redskins loss to the Bears. He caught four of five targets for 78 receiving yards. Thompson is averaging 5.3 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game this season. The Redskins are projected to trail a high percentage of their games and Thompson will continue to be the beneficiary. The Giants are heavily favored over the Redskins according to early odds. No other defense has given up more passing yards per game than the Giants (332.3). Thompson is a must-start in PPR formats. 

Start Miles Sanders

Eagles at Packers

Fantasy players were triggered when they watched Jordan Howard vulture a rushing touchdown from Sanders early in the Eagles loss to the Lions. The rookie still put together an impressive performance displaying his speed, agility, and grasp of the Eagles playbook. Sanders rushed 13 times for 53 yards along with two receptions for 73 receiving yards. The good news is that the Eagles coaching staff continue to involve him in the offense. The bad news is that Sanders fumbled the football twice in the second quarter. He fumbled the football 10 times at Penn State. Through three games Sanders has nine more rushing attempts than Howard and 23 more than Darren Sproles. He should continue to be heavily involved in the offense moving forward especially with Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson out. Sanders can be viewed as an RB2 with upside against a Packers defense on Thursday night that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (131) this season. 

Start David Montgomery

Bears vs Vikings

Montgomery touched the football 16 times for 81 total yards in the Bears win over the Redskins. He’s averaging 14.6 opportunities per game. Montgomery’s ability as a runner in between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield has enabled him to dominate the touches in the Bears backfield. The Bears will be tested on their home field with the Vikings coming to town for Week 4. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. The offenses of both teams prefer to lean heavily on the running game. The matchup between the Bears and Vikings will be a difficult one to watch for the casual NFL fan. Both head coaches don’t trust their quarterbacks and will bludgeon each other with their stud RBs. Montgomery has the size, vision, creativity, and viciousness as a runner to wear down the Vikings defensive line. He’ll be involved regardless of game flow as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. Montgomery can be viewed as a low-end RB2 with upside against the Vikings. 

Start Phillip Lindsay

Broncos vs Jaguars

Lindsay rushed 21 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The second-year RB also caught four of five targets for 49 yards. Royce Freeman was in and out of the game nursing a shoulder injury. This created additional opportunities for Lindsay to shine. The Jaguars travel to Denver to face a Broncos team desperate for a win. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 364.7 total yards per game. The best way for the Broncos to attack their defense is through the running game. The Jaguars defense has allowed 110 rushing yards per game this season. Joe Flacco has thrown three interceptions and has been sacked eight times over the last two games. He’s not the most mobile QB, but using Lindsay as a receiver out of the backfield could provide Flacco with a safety outlet. 

Start LeSean McCoy

Chiefs at Lions

Sit Devonta Freeman

Falcons vs Titans

Freeman rushed 16 times for 88 yards in the Falcons loss to the Colts in Week 3. It was disappointing to see him finish with only three receptions for seven yards. Freeman had the backfield to himself with Ito Smith leaving the game early with a concussion. That won’t be the case in Week 4. The Falcons backfield will be a committee whether or not Smith is active with Brian Hill or Qadree Ollison waiting in the wings. Freeman has yet to score a touchdown this season and it will be challenging against a stout Titans defense that’ll limit his fantasy upside. 

Sit Kerryon Johnson

Lions vs Chiefs

It was encouraging to see Johnson handle a career-high 20 rushing attempts including four inside the 10-yard line. The end result of 36 rushing yards and one touchdown was not. Johnson also had one reception for seven yards in the Lions victory over the Eagles. He operated as the primary RB on third-downs. The biggest hurdle Johnson will have to overcome is the matchup. The Chiefs offense is averaging 34 points per game. The Lions would be wise to lean on the passing game to keep up with Kansas City. If the Ravens defense was unable to contain their offense then it’s unlikely that Detroit’s will be able to do so especially with cornerback Darius Slay. There’s also a possibility that Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic siphon touches away from Johnson. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start Marvin Jones

Lions vs Chiefs

Jones caught six of nine targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in the Lions win over the Eagles. He led the team in targets and air yards (130). This will be the first time during the 2019 season that Mahomes plays a regular-season game in a dome. The Chiefs secondary has struggled this season with bigger receivers. There is a good chance that Jones meets or exceeds his performance from Week 3. He is on the WR2 radar. 

Start D.J. Moore

Panthers at Texans

Moore caught one of two targets for a 52-yard touchdown in the Panthers win over the Cardinals. You shouldn’t be concerned about his two targets. Allen did a great job of diversifying the targets. Moore averaged 12 targets per game over the Panthers first two games. Joseph Person, of the Athletic, reported that Cam Newton is dealing with a Lisfranc injury and is expected to miss anywhere from four to eight weeks. The Texans defense has allowed 386 total yards per game this season while their offense, outside of the game against the Jaguars, has been very productive. Houston’s secondary can be exploited and Moore has the athleticism as Carolina’s vertical threat to take advantage. He can be viewed as a WR2. 

Start Christian Kirk

Cardinals vs Seahawks

Kirk caught 10 of 12 targets for 59 receiving yards in the Cardinals loss to the Panthers. The only receivers with more targets than Kirk’s 32 are Michael Thoms (33) and Keenan Allen (42). Were you aware that 81 percent of his targets have been when he’s lined up in the slot? Kyler Murray is leading the NFL with 46 pass attempts per game. The Cardinals defense is allowing 286 passing yards per game. Arizona will have to score points to keep up with Russell Wilson who is coming off of a 406-yard passing game. Kirk is a WR3 with upside as the Cardinals take on the Seahawks at home.  

Start Sterling Shepard

Giants vs Redskins

Shepard missed Week 2 with a concussion. He returned to fantasy relevance in Week 2 with an impressive performance with rookie Jones under center. Shepard caught seven of nine targets for 100 yards and one touchdown in the Giants dramatic win over the Buccaneers. The Redskins are allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (403) this season. Shepard should see a heavy dose of targets and is versatile enough to line up all over the field including the slot. The Giants will lean more on the passing game with Saquon Barkley dealing with a high ankle sprain. Shepard’s a WR2 with upside against Washington. 

Start D.J. Chark

Jaguars at Broncos

Chark is currently the WR8 in PPR formats. He caught four of five targets for 76 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars win over the Titans. He’s only been targeted 18 times this season, but has caught 15 of them. Chark is firmly on the WR3 radar as the Jaguars No. 1 receiver. The second-year receiver is averaging 92.3 receiving yards and 18.5 yards per reception. Did you know Chark joins Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton, and Tyrell Williams as the only receivers who have scored a touchdown in every game this season. He can be viewed as a WR3 with upside on the road against the Broncos in Week 4. 

Start Terry McLaurin

Redskins at Giants

McLaurin caught six of eight targets for 70 yards and one touchdown in the Redskins loss to the Bears. He is now the first player in NFL history with at least five receptions and a receiving touchdown in each of his first three NFL games according to ESPN Stats and Info. The Redskins will have to throw early and often to keep up with the Giants considering the yards their defense is allowing on a per-game basis this season. McLaurin is a high-end WR3 this week. 

Terry McLaurin was one of our Waiver Wire Targets for Week 4

Start John Brown

Bills vs Patriots

Brown caught four of five passes for 51 receiving yards in the Bills win over the Bengals. He’s averaged 82 receiving yards and 16 PPR fantasy points per game this season. Brown is the perfect fit for Allen and his affinity for throwing down the field. He may be leaned on even more this week against the Patriots. Brown is a weekly WR2 who should be confidently started in a higher percentage of leagues. 

Start Demarcus Robinson

Chiefs at Lions

The Chiefs offense is so explosive that it’s a good idea to have any exposure you can on a weekly basis. Robinson caught three of four targets for 43 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City’s win over the Ravens. On the surface, it’s easy to gravitate toward Mecole Hardman. Robinson is my preferred play. He’s caught 83.3 percent of his 12 targets and is averaging 71.6 receiving yards per game. Robinson can be viewed as an upside WR3 against the Lions. 

TIGHT ENDS

Start Will Dissly

Seahawks at Cardinals

Dissly caught six of seven targets for 62 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks loss to the Saints. He has caught three of Wilson’s seven touchdown passes this season. Dissly’s an excellent streamer this week against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most points on a per-game basis to tight ends. He’s a TE1 in what is projected to be a high scoring game. 

Start T.J. Hockenson

Lions vs Chiefs

Hockenson broke the heart of fantasy players over the last two weeks. He’s only been targeted seven times over the last two games with two receptions for eight receiving yards. Those are not the stat lines that are a part of matchup winning lineups. Hockenson is more of a matchup based streamer and the Lions will need all hands on deck to keep up with the Chiefs on their home field. 

Bringing It All Together

Making lineup decisions in fantasy football whether it’s redraft, dynasty, or DFS is mind-numbing. It’s important not to second guess yourself or make ungrounded last-minute changes. One good best practice is to set your lineup the night before your matchup begins. Breaking news should be the only thing that prompts you to make changes.

If you have additional questions please refer to our fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). 

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