Pre-draft QB Trade Shakes Up Rosters, Mocks
In a move that some NFL insiders saw coming, the Denver Broncos shook up mock drafts everywhere on the day before the NFL draft by trading for QB Teddy Bridgewater from the Carolina Panthers. Less than a month after the Panthers themselves executed a trade for QB Sam Darnold, Bridgewater is on the move and will compete with incumbent starter Drew Lock for starting duties in Denver.
To facilitate the trade, Bridgewater agreed to reduce his 2021 salary from $17 million down to $11.5 million. The Panthers agreed to pay $7 million of that, leaving Denver on the hook for just $4.5 million against the 2021 salary cap. In exchange, Bridgewater will get $1.5 million that was previously non-guaranteed and Carolina will receive a 2021 sixth-round draft pick from Denver.
While the addition of Bridgewater certainly boosts Denver’s waning quarterback depth, it won’t preclude new general manager George Paton from considering a rookie signal-caller with Denver’s upcoming ninth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Interestingly, Denver is currently slated to pick directly behind Carolina and both rebuilding teams have frequently been mocked a quarterback by draft pundits and some insiders. Both squads could also use some help in the trenches and have also been rumored to be candidates to trade down. This makes the back of the top-10 quite an intriguing spot for Thursday’s draft and puts both the Broncos and Panthers as potential pivots in what is becoming an increasingly wide-open first round.
Impact on the 2021 NFL Draft
Following the trade, the Broncos are now favored to attack the offensive line with the No. 9 pick, which bodes well for Teddy Bridgewater’s immediate future. Looking at odds provided by FanDuel, Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater (+210) is now the betting favorite to be Denver’s selection, followed by the draft’s top lineman, Oregon’s Penei Sewell (+650), who is widely speculated to be off the board by the time the Broncos are on the clock.
After the lineman, QB Trey Lance +900 is the most likely pick for Denver, followed by another lineman, Christian Darrisaw who comes in at +1700.
Justin Fields, who many consider the second or third best signal-caller in this drat, is now sitting with an over/under of pick 7.5, which puts him right where the Panthers sit. Also keep an eye on Trey Lance, who has the same 7.5 total, but under comes with -188 juice compared to just -122 for Fields.
Impact on Denver
If the Broncos do not add a rookie to the mix, Bridgewater will battle Drew Lock for Week 1 starting duties. Lock would likely be given the courtesy of being considered the starter but Bridgewater was more effective last season. Bridgewater completed a solid 69.1% of his passes while Lock was way down at a paltry 57.3%. Bridgewater also produced fewer interceptions and chipped in an additional 279 yards and five scores on the ground.
FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics also heavily favor Teddy Bridgewater to Lock, who ranked 31st with a 32.6% completion rate when pressured, 28th with 3.5 air yards per attempt, and 31st with a lowly 27% completion rate on deep-ball passes.
Those kinds of struggles won’t help what looks like a solid young receiving corps that boasts Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and 2020 first-rounder Jerry Jeudy.
Lock regressed in most areas as a sophomore led to the Broncos falling to 5-11 after improving in each of the previous three seasons. With John Elway stepping into a different role, Paton now has the final say on the roster and appears ready to add some serious competition to Lock’s shaky tenure.
If Paton chooses to add a rookie quarterback via the draft, it would only further reiterate that Lock’s days as the starter are numbered, which should result in good news for Denver’s underrated skill-position group.
Impact on Carolina
The writing was on the wall for Bridgewater the moment that GM Scott Fitterer took a flyer on Sam Darnold, who is still only 23-years-old. Although Fitterer has yet to exercise Darnold’s fifth-year option, the once-promising thrower should benefit from a change of scenery that takes him far away from the destructive influence of Adam Gase.
Carolina could go in a number of different directions with the No. 8 pick, including a trade, defense, O-line, wide receiver, or one of the five first-round quarterbacks.
While Bridgewater was solid at completing passes, his 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt figure ranked just 19th and he tossed on 15 TD strikes in 15 games. Darnold was far worse with an abysmal 5.2 AYPA but regressed badly in Gase’s final season at the helm.
Even if the club selects an early signal-caller in the draft, Darnold will have a good chance of opening the season as Carolina’s starter. Darnold had little downfield success during his first three pro seasons, so that could continue to lead to a ton of targets for RB Christian McCaffrey and WR D.J. Moore. The addition of a dual-threat rookie like Justin Fields or Trey Lance could really open things up for the Panthers and be a boon for WR Robby Anderson, who faded after a red-hot start.
