Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour is making perhaps its biggest stop of the season this week for the Masters Tournament in Georgia, and it arrives from San Antonio which held last week’s Valero Texas Open. We have 90 or 91 players this week depending on what Tiger Woods decides to do – how awesome would it be if he makes his professional golfing return at the Masters, that would be classic! The top 50 plus ties and the golfers within 10 strokes of the leader after round 2 will move on to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $11.5M on the line this week, the receives $2.07M and also collects 600 FedEx Cup points. Augusta National Golf Club is now at 7,510 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass and average almost 6,500 square feet. The average winning score at this event over the last ten years is -11.7, and expect a score around this number again this year unless an outlier goes off as Dustin Johnson did in 2020 to set the all-time record at -20. Place bets on golfers this week who hit a long ball off the tee, are solid off the tee, are strong tee to green, can get up and down around the greens, and have a respectable approach game.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Valero Texas Open this week:
1. Will the weather play a factor? We have seen this tournament dictated by the weather, in 2016, for example, Danny Willett won with a score of just -5. This week’s weather in Augusta, Georgia, looks fairly dry, but we will likely see a decent amount of wind, especially on Friday and Saturday.
2. Who has the most top 10’s here over the last five years? This course is the most sticky course of any on the PGA Tour with regards to player’s results, so course history is big this week. Golfers tend to either play well here every year or do poorly. The players with the most top ten’s over the last five years include Jon Rahm with 4, Dustin Johnson with 3, Rory McIlroy with 3, Cam Smith with 3, Tony Finau with 3, and Patrick Reed also with 3.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? The ten players include Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Mark Hubbard, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Billy Horschel, and Will Zalatoris.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Brooks Koepka (+2000) – Well it’s major season time, so that means it’s Koepka time as he almost always gets up for these big events. He’s coming off a 5th at the match play event where he was great on approach, had a T12 at the Valspar Championship where his ball-striking and putting were fantastic, and he had a T3 at the Phoenix Open in February. He missed the cut last year but was battling injury, and had a T7 and a T2 prior to that in 2020 and 2019, and has three top 11’s since 2017. He’s boom or bust, but I think he will boom this week. Bet him to win outright, top 5, or top 10, depending on how bullish you are on Brooks for the season’s first major.
Justin Thomas (+1200) – Thomas has played well at the Masters over the years and even though he hasn’t broken through quite yet, he did finish T4 in 2020 and has five straight top 22’s at Augusta. He has seven top 8’s over his last eleven starts, and has been ball-striking like a true superstar for a long time now. You can bet JT however you’d like to this week – he’s my favorite player to win the 2022 Masters.
Avoid: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) – It’s hard to be down on any of these golfers, but I went with Cantlay who has missed the cut here twice over the last four years and only has one top 15 in five appearances. He could have his best Masters finish to date, but I want strong approach players this week on my betting card and I can’t get behind Cantlay who has lost strokes in the category the past five of six starts including losing 3.34 at THE PLAYERS Championship.
+2600 to +5000
Russell Henley (+3500) – I really love Henley’s approach and short game play – one amazing example, is he gained 11.54 strokes on approach at THE PLAYERS Championship two starts ago. Outside of the match play event, he has eight straight top 33’s including a 2nd and a T7 in there. He loves playing in his home State of Georgia too with a T15, a T11, a 21st, and a T31 over his last four starts here, and his game has advanced since his last appearance here in 2018. I like him as a top 20 bet this week, but he should be given some level of respect as a top 10 wager.
Will Zalatoris (+3500) – What a showing last year at the Masters for Zalatoris with a solo 2nd, and he seems poised to knock on the door again this year, as well. He has three top 6’s over his last six starts and is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He will be extremely dangerous if he ever finds his putting stroke, as that’s his only consistent weakness. I think you can bet him to win outright, top 5, top 10, or even top 20 if you want to be more cautious with Will-Z.
Avoid: Tiger Woods (+5000) – So after 17 long months, it looks as though Woods will give it a go this week and try to compete. What he will do is hard to say, but he has never missed a cut line at the Masters. He could shock us and finish something like T34, but even a good result like that wouldn’t do much as a bet. Just sit back and watch Tiger, it’s too risky to bet him this week I think until we know where his game is at.
+5100 to +10000
Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500) – He has been hot lately with seven top 18’s over his last eight starts and four of them have gone for top 9’s between the PGA Tour and European Tour. He plays a complete game which I really like, and he has experienced some success at Augusta with a T7 coming in 2016. I believe he will do well as a top 20 or top 30 bet this week.
Corey Conners (+5500) – The superb ball-striking Canadian loves this track and has performed admirably here with back-to-back top 10’s, and gained a ridiculous 11.22 strokes ball-striking last year. He recently beat Dustin Johnson to finish 3rd at the match play event, had a T26 at THE PLAYERS Championship, a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and has finished no worse than T35 over his last four starts. I think you can bet him to finish top 10, top 20, or top 30 depending on how much risk/reward you’re looking at this week.
Avoid: Sergio Garcia (+8000) – I had a hard time picking out a fade for this range, but ultimately went with the 2017 champ as he has missed the cut here three straight times, Garcia’s approach play has been terrible since last Fall, and he hasn’t had a top since last November. Even if he makes the cut this week, I don’t expect anything better than a 40-something finish, and that just won’t cut it in the betting market.
+11000 and higher
Talor Gooch (+13000) – Gooch hasn’t played this event before, but his game should play well here as he has good distance, a solid approach game, and consistently gains strokes with his short game. He has seven top 30’s over his last ten starts including a T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and I think he will add an eighth top 30 over his last eleven. I like him as a top 30 bet this week, but you could flirt with a top 20 wager if you’re more bullish on him than I am at the moment.
Brian Harman (+15000) – The former Georgia Bulldog hasn’t had the opportunity to play here a ton over the course of his career, but he made the most of last year’s appearance with a T12 and gained strokes across the board except for a small loss around the green. His ball-striking has been good since late January, and it has led to a T3, a T5, and a T14 over his last seven starts. Betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 this week works for me.
Avoid: Matthew Wolff (+18000) – It was looking as though Wolff was regaining his confidence late last year as he went 2nd-T5-T11, but since then he has three missed cuts in seven starts and three 60-something finishes. He has played in the Masters twice but they haven’t been kind to him with a missed cut in 2020 and a disqualification last year. Here’s to hoping that he’s not suffering in the mental health department again, as he seems like such a good guy and I’m rooting for him to rebound in every facet of his life sooner rather than later.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
