Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour now heads east from California for its Florida swing including The Honda Classic, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the Valspar Championship. This tournament dates back to 1972 when it was first known as Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic. We have 144 players in the field this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 on Friday will qualify to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $8M available to be won this week, the winner banks $1.44M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. PGA National – Champion Course is 7,125 yards in length, is a par 70, and the large greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten years is just -9.1, so this track is quite difficult to score well on, especially holes 15 through 17 which is known as The Bear Trap and it’s full of water hazards. The tournament record on this particular course, which has been a mainstay since 2007, is Camilo Villegas’ -13 which took place in 2010. Place bets on golfers this week who can hit a long ball off the tee, are good at putting on Bermudagrass, have a solid approach game, are strong around greens, and are sound off the tee.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding The Honda Classic this week:
1. How many players should I bet? It’s always hard to say on any given week, most golf betting people will bet five or fewer players and will have a combination of outright wagers, top 5’s, top 10’s, top 20’s, and beyond. Everyone tends to have their own style and it evolves over time depending on how the profit or loss numbers shake out short and long-term.
2. Which players have performed the best at this annual Florida swing? I pulled some data over the last three years and looked at strokes gained: total to see which golfers have done the best and the most three notables who are playing this week include Daniel Berger who’s 3rd, Sungjae Im is 6th, and Lee Westwood is 10th.
3. Should I save my money for the big upcoming events? We do have two big tournaments coming up in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and especially THE PLAYERS Championship in two weeks which is arguably the most elite and deepest field that golf has. You might want to just bet a few bucks this week and save up for the two weeks after it, and don’t forget that major season is under two months away starting with The Masters in April!
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Sungjae Im (+1000) – The 2020 Honda Classic champ is trending towards another victory and it could come this week and lead to him becoming a two-time champ of this event. Im has ten top 24’s over his last thirteen starts including winning the Shriners Children’s Open last October, and more recently, he had a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open under a month ago where he was outstanding off the tee and his short game was stellar as he gained 9.05 strokes. He was even in the mix last year to defend his championship but he fell short and finished T8 which is still quite good. I think you can bet Im to win outright, finish top 5, and top 10, and win on at least one of those bets.
Louis Oosthuizen (+1600) – Oosthuizen always impresses me and he did it again in a strong field event last week where he finished T14 after almost a three-month layoff from professional golf. It likely won’t be long when he catches fire again like last season when he had five top 8 finishes in seven starts and three of them were either runner-up or co-runner-ups. He has a T21 and a T24 in his last three looks at this tournament, but I think he will do a whole lot better this year. You can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 depending on how much risk and reward you’re after.
Avoid: Brooks Koepka (+2000) – If it’s not a major event then I’m typically off of Koepka and this week will be no different. He has played here six times and has two cuts, three finishes in the range of T26 to T51, and he did have a T2 three years ago but he was playing much better and consistent golf leading up to the start. His quality ball-striking will return in time for The Masters I believe, but that won’t help you this week as it has been quite ugly since last October outside of his T3 at the Phoenix Open, and I expect no change for a while yet.
+2600 to +5000
Jhonattan Vegas (+4000) – I’m looking for golfers who have fared well at this tournament and Vegas certainly fits that profile as he has only missed the cut once here since 2008 in nine starts and five of those have gone for top 30’s over the last seven including his T4 in 2017. He has been decent lately and his off the tee and approach numbers are solid, so I believe you can confidently bet him to finish top 20 or top 30, or you could venture into top 10 territory but that’s a lot riskier, obviously.
Keith Mitchell (+3500) – Mitchell won here three years ago and has been very sound lately with four top 12’s in his last five starts including a T10 at the Phoenix Open two weeks ago thanks to solid ball-striking and around the green play. He does present risk because he has missed the cut here twice in four looks, but the upside is huge and I believe we will again see a strong performance from Keith this week. I think betting him to finish top 20 is ideal, but you could wager him to finish top 10 or top 30.
Avoid: Mackenzie Hughes (+4000) – Hughes finished runner-up here two years ago but his track record overall at The Honda Classic is underwhelming as he only has that one top 35 finish and that’s because this course is intended for great ball-strikers, and he’s more of a short game specialist – especially on the greens. He has two missed cuts in three starts so far in 2022, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he adds another missed cut this week.
+5100 to +10000
Cameron Young (+5500) – Young is a rookie but a very good one and is in the mix to become the rookie of the year on the PGA Tour as he has two runner-ups in his last eight starts and has three straight top 26’s thanks to superb ball-striking and putting. He’s coming off a T2 last week in a loaded field, so you have to think he’s licking his lips to do one better this week in a less-than-average field. I wouldn’t bet him to win, but a top 5, top 10, top 20, or top 30 should all be in consideration this week.
Denny McCarthy (+5500) – He’s one of the best putters in the world and before his missed cut at the Phoenix Open in his most recent start, he had five top 15’s in six starts. It took him four starts here to figure things out as he missed the cut three straight times, but he found his stride last year en route to a T3 and he gained strokes in every major stat category. I like him as a top 20 or top 30 bet this week – he could have another top 5 but I would be reluctant to be that aggressive with McCarthy.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+6000) – Reed hasn’t played here since 2018 when he missed the cut and he missed it in 2016 as well, those are his most recent starts at this event. He’s in the same bucket as Hughes above where he’s a short game expert and not a ball-striker which is ideal for this tricky track. He has lost strokes ball-striking in his last ten measured events, and that spells disaster coming into this venue where you got to be solid off the tee and on approach or you will find the water on more than one occasion. He will find his groove again, but I doubt it’s this week.
+11000 and higher
Padraig Harrington (+13000) – The two-time winner here has missed the cut at this event four straight times, but I think Harrington will get it together and play weekend golf this week. He has been really good on the European Tour since last November as he has five straight top 27’s and two of those were top 9’s. He’s a risky bet to make, but if you wager a top 30 or top 40 then you should do alright.
Mark Hubbard (+13000) – I like that Hubbard is coming off a T6 on the Korn Ferry Tour and he has three top 33’s in his last six starts on the PGA Tour. Another positive is that he’s 3/4 over his last four starts here including a T11 two years ago when he gained 4.12 on approach and 3.84 with his short game. To bet him to finish top 30 or top 40 seems fine to me, he should be in and around that finishing range come Sunday.
Avoid: Brandon Wu (+50000) – Wu has promise and potential but we haven’t seen it come to fruition just yet on the PGA Tour. He has two missed cuts over his last three starts and had a T59 in his most recent appearance at Pebble Beach thanks to strong putting which usually isn’t sustainable for most golfers. He has no history here, isn’t a good ball-striker or sound around the greens, so I don’t believe his first look at The Honda Classic will be memorable and his journey will likely end in disappointment on Friday afternoon.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
