DFS Golf Picks: The 2022 RBC Heritage
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the RBC Heritage, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you for this week!
The RBC Heritage
Preview for the RBC Heritage: This event has been around since 1969 when Arnold Palmer won the inaugural edition with a score of -1 – three strokes better than two other players. The best score we have seen at this tournament is a -22 which came just two years ago by Webb Simpson – winning by just a single stroke over Abraham Ancer. Winners of the RBC Heritage over the last five years include Stewart Cink in 2021, Webb Simpson in 2020, Pan Cheng-tsung in 2019, Satoshi Kodaira in 2018, and Wesley Bryan in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is 8M, the winner collects $1.44M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Harbour Town Golf Links measures 7,121 yards, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermudagrass and average a tiny 3,700 square feet. The winning score here over the last ten years ranges from -9 to -22, so windy weather can play a huge role here obviously. Some core key stats to pay attention to this week are, in order, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: around the green.
The field: This is an invitational, so we only got 132 players in action this week but it’s a good quality one with Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Tyrrell Hatton, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and other talent in action, as well. The top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will move on to play weekend golf for rounds 3 and 4. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a solid B.
Three questions about the RBC Heritage:
1. Will wind and rain factor in this week? As of now, the weather forecast looks a bit wet, especially on Friday and Saturday, but at least the winds don’t look too bad, so don’t factor in weather too much when you’re building your lineups.
2. Who are the 10 best players on approach? Over the last 24 rounds, the top ten players gaining the most strokes on approach are Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann, Alex Noren, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, and Adam Hadwin.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total at this event? Over the last five years, the ten players who have gained the most strokes total at the RBC Heritage include Joaquin Niemann (4 rounds), Webb Simpson (20 rounds), Justin Thomas (4 rounds), Patrick Cantlay (14 rounds), Daniel Berger (12 rounds), J.T. Poston (10 rounds), Matt Kuchar (20 rounds), Ian Poulter (20 rounds), Dustin Johnson (16 rounds), and Kevin Streelman (14 rounds).
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: The field isn’t overly big and it’s fairly strong and deep even despite a fairly rough $6K range, so I’ll be going in the hybrid direction for my core lineups this week. Be sure to see which players are soaking up lots of projected ownership on Wednesday, and as always, leave a few hundred dollars on the table, especially in the larger GPPs if your goal is to win the top prize outright.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – Thomas was very solid at the Masters last week to finish T8 and has nine top 8’s over his last fourteen starts. His golf game is strong throughout and if he brings a complete game as he did in 2020 when he gained strokes across the board, he’s poised to lock in another top 10 here. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T8.
Cameron Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – He was within striking distance after round 3 at the Masters last week, but faded a bit on Sunday to finish 3rd. He’s so talented on approach and is one of the best putters in the world, so it’s no wonder that he won THE PLAYERS Championship two starts ago and has nine top 10’s in his last fourteen starts including two wins. In his sixth start at this event last year, he had his best result with a top 10 and has four top 32’s in six starts total. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T9, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T29.
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – It was hard to decide between Collin Morikawa and Johnson, but I went with DJ since he has three top 16’s here in the last four years and his best was last here when he was phenomenal off the tee and putting gaining 10.28 strokes combined between those two stat categories. He has three top 9’s over his last six starts and finished 12th at the Masters last week thanks to solid approach play and around the green play. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2020 Masters, so I think he’s overdue and he’s starting to get back to the DJ we knew when he was ranked #1 in the world. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13, 2020 – T17, 2019 – T28, and 2018 – T16.
The $9K Range
Shane Lowry (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – Outside of match play, Lowry has eight consecutive top 24’s including three top 9’s such as his impressive 3rd at the Masters last week despite losing almost 4 strokes on approach which is uncharacteristic of the Irishman. He has two top 9’s in the last three years here, so he has a good path for success here. The former Open champion is trending in the right direction and could take it all this week if his strong approach play returns. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T9, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T3, and 2017 – T44.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Conners has the Masters figured out with three straight top 10’s at Augusta, and he has found his groove on this track over the past two years with a T21 two years ago and a T4 last year when he was formidable in every facet of his game. He has three top 11’s in his last five starts on the back of solid ball-striking, and will add another one this week if it holds strong which I have no doubt that it will. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T4, 2020 – T21, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – Cut.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – He has five top 10’s over his last nine starts and eight top 18’s during that stretch, and it’s sustainable as he’s a full bag of clubs type of player. Fitzpatrick has three top 14’s here over the last four years including a T4 last year thanks to a hot putter that gained 7.33 strokes – lucky for him that he gains a ton of strokes putting on a regular occurrence. Expect another top 15 this week and he has the upside to get back inside that elusive top 5 once again. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T4, 2020 – T14, 2019 – T39, 2018 – T14, and 2017 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – The 2020 champ has made eleven consecutive cuts here and has five top 11’s since 2013 including last year’s T9 when he gained 9.88 strokes ball-striking. His stats haven’t looked too good in a while now, but he still has good finishes and it’s a very soft landing for him this week and I can see him putting up his first top 10 of the year. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T9, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T16, 2018 – T5, 2017 – T11.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Hatton didn’t have the best showing at the Masters last week, but he still has five top 9’s over his last nine starts and has been quite good at this venue including a T3 two years ago when he pretty much gained strokes across the board – his losses were only a 0.11 loss on around the green and a 0.37 loss off the tee. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T39, 2020 – T3, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T29.
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Noren has four top 18’s in his last seven starts including a T5 at The Honda Classic and a T6 at the Phoenix Open. He plays a complete game which I like a lot in players, and has been especially good on approach since January which isn’t typical for the Swede. He hasn’t shot out the lights here, but has three 20-something finishes over the last three years and could easily get inside the top 20 this week. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T25, 2020 – T21, and 2019 – T28.
The $7K Range
Matt Kuchar (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – It’s hard to believe, but Kuchar is 17 for 17 at this tournament with a win in 2014, a 2nd in 2019, and nine top 20’s. He has scuffled a bunch recently but is coming off a co-runner-up in his most recent start at Texas Open and had a T7 at the Sony Open earlier this year. His game is well suited to shorter courses like these with smaller greens since he’s still dialed in with his short game. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18, 2020 – T41, 2019 – 2nd, 2018 – T23, and 2017 – T11.
Kevin Streelman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – He has four top 22’s over his last five starts including a T7 at the Valspar Championship where he gained strokes across the board. He has only missed weekend play once here in his last nine looks including three top 7’s – two in the last four years thanks to outstanding ball-striking every year. He’s an excellent mid-tier option this week and will play well in any type of lineup configuration. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T33, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T6, and 2018 – T7.
Lucas Glover (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Glover has six top 37’s over his last nine starts, and has six top 33’s here over the last seven years since his ball-striking always shows up on this course. The South Carolina native is clearly comfortable here, and should put up another top 33, so he’s a nice mid-tier option. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T33, 2020 – T21, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T32.
The $6K Range
Michael Thompson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – I really don’t care for the $6K range this week, so I’ll be mostly avoiding it when building my lineups, but Thompson isn’t a bad option as a cheapie since he has finished no worse than T42 here over the last four years and has two top 10’s over the last three years. His biggest problem is his recent form as he has missed a bunch of cuts this year, but has made back-to-back cut lines and had a T5 and a T11 in January, so here’s to hoping his good approach play returns and he can make some noise. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T42, 2020 – T8, 2019 – T10, 2018 – T42, and 2017 – Cut.
Nate Lashley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – He likely has the best recent form of any player in the $6K range with a T7, a T27, and a T18 over his last three starts and it’s because of strong ball-striking and around the green play. He has only played here once and missed the cut two years ago, but he should make it this week and could keep that top 30 streak alive. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
Wesley Bryan (Salary: DraftKings – $6.1K) – Here’s another player who has had a rough ride as of late, but he won here five years ago, so there should be good vibes for him on this track, and he has made the cut in four straight appearances. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T25, 2020 – T68, 2018 – T42, and 2017 – Won.
