Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Broncos -1.5 | Over / Under: 39.5
Week 4 starts with a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. Both teams roll into Thursday Night Football 0-3 and neither team looks close to a turnaround. Although this will not be a barn burning, scoring extravaganza; we should still get a victor in this matchup. We can’t have another tie this season could right? So let’s break down how each of these teams can win the game.
How The Denver Broncos Win This Game
In the wake of Drew Lock injury and Jeff Driskel subpar performance, the Denver Broncos are starting Brett Rypien. This means the game belongs to Melvin Gordon and the defense. Phillip Lindsay is trending towards playing however I expect him to be on a snap count. This leads Denver to lean on their newly signed running back to help them control the clock, limit the mistakes for Rypien, and win a close battle.
The Broncos will also be leaning on their defense, although riddled with injuries, to come away with a few turnovers to keep this game in a positive game script allowing them to rely heavily on the run.
How The New York Jets Win The Game
Although I like to just write “fire Adam Gase” and be done with it, the real analysis would be that this game will be a Sam Darnold game. Le’Veon Bell is still on the sidelines, which means the backfield has to use Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage. Neither name sparks excitement, nor do they spark fear in their opponents. If the Jets win this game, it will have to be on the arm of Sam Darnold.
Hopefully, for your redraft/dynasty leagues you don’t have many players in this game on Thursday. For all of us Daily Fantasy Sports(DFS) lovers, let’s break this game down a little bit and see where we can find our edge to win some money by the end of the night.
Quarterbacks
Brett Rypien ($10,200)
Once the Broncos replaced Jeff Driskel with Brett Rypien, he didn’t have a terrible stat line. He went 8/9 for 53 and an INT. Don’t hear what I am not saying, this is not a great stat line either. To put down this type of money in DraftKings on a quarterback making his first start, with weapons injured around him would be foolhardy.
Sam Darnold ($10,600)
We spoke earlier about how this game is going to be a Sam Darnold game. Although the New York Jets as a whole have not looked good. Darnold has come out against some of the better defenses in the league (Buffalo, San Francisco, Indianapolis). The issue for Darnold has been yardage as he hasn’t gone over 215 yards this season while already having four interceptions. This week his numbers should rise as the Broncos defense has been decimated by injuries.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon ($11,00), Phillip Lindsay ($6,200)
Although Melvin Gordon is coming off of only 26 yards rushing(12 more through the air), you have to plug him in your lineup for Thursday night. With Rypien getting the start, the Broncos will have to lean on their running game. This is why you paid for Melvin Gordon, this is the game where Denver hopes to get their money worth. With the Jets being 24th against the run this combination will lead to a good stat line for Melvin Gordon.
Phillip Lindsay if he does play, I believe will be on a snap count. You should pivot to other players to add to your showdown lineup.
Frank Gore ($6,400) Kalen Ballage ($5,800)
Denver is 7th against the run this year. It’s not an attractive matchup for either running back. The bulk of the carries are going to go to Frank Gore, who is averaging 18 carries a game since Le’Veon Bell injuries. However, I would pivot from him and if I had to use a running back from the Jets it would be Kalen Ballage.
He only had 2 rushes for 8 yards, however, his gameplay seems to be as the passing back to Frank Gore’s up the middle running style. Ballage hauled in 5 catches for 44 yards last week and should seem a similar usage this week as the teams third-down back.
New York Jets Wide Receivers
Braxton Berrios ($7,200)
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Before we breakdown the only viable option in this wide receiver core, we will not break down Jamison Crowder and Bershad Perriman as both are still questionable with no update at the time of this article. If either play I would try to plug them in your lineup.
If both Crowder and Perriman are out again this week, Berrios becomes a plug and play as Darnold’s only viable outside option. In the past two weeks, Berrios has averaged 5 catches for 61.5 yards and 1 touchdown. His average fantasy total during these weeks is 17.1. He becomes a plug and play for the showdown.
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy ($7,800) K.J Hamler ($4,800)
Jerry Jeudy has become the last man standing for me Thursday night in this Broncos passing offense. He is averaging 4 catches for 57 yards this year and has not seen the end zone yet. On the other hand, K.J Hamler is a deep threat home run style play. Although the Jets are an average pass defense(15th in the league) due to the quarterback carousel in Denver this would also be a position I would pivot off of for this game.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant ($9,000)
Noah Fant started the season off hot with a touchdown in 2 of the 3 games played. He is also averaging 61 yards a game. Typing is a young, inexperienced quarterback and they tend to target their tight ends more than most. This is the only option from the Broncos passing offense that could return a dividend.
Chris Herndon ($5,400)
I’m sure I’m not alone when I say Chris Herndon has hurt me deeply in fantasy. However, his talent and his price point make him a plug and play. The Broncos against the tight end have allowed 20 receptions for 185 yards and two touchdowns.
Defense and Kickers
Denver ($5,600)/New York ($4,000)/ Brandon McManus($4,600)/ Sam Ficken($4,400)
There will be turnovers this game with two teams struggling to produce quality play on the field. Steer clear of the Broncos defense, who are struggling with injuries and will be on the field more with the sputtering Denver offense under Rypien. however, the Jets defense could be a sneaky play in your lineup against the untested Rypien.
This should be a low scoring battle between two inept teams. I like both kickers to play a role in the outcome this week.
Prediction
New York Jets beat the Denver Broncos 20-17
Free DFS Head To Head Lineup
- Sam Darnold ($15,900-Captain)
- Sam Ficken ($4,400)
- Melvin Gordon ($11,000)
- Chris Herndon ($5,400)
- Braxton Berrios ($7,200)
- Brandon McManus ($4,600)
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