Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | O/U 43.5
Week 15 is on our doorstep and for this week’s preliminary matchup, we have a potentially entertaining battle between two longtime division foes. In their second matchup of the season, the San Francisco 49ers will be traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in an NFC West clash with heavy playoff implications.
Team Breakdowns
These are the top two teams in the NFC West and both are currently in situations that they couldn’t have imagined prior to the start of the season. Despite numerous injuries, the 49ers are currently sitting at the top of the division with a record of 9-4 after six straight wins. On the other hand, the Seahawks have been one of the feel-good surprise stories of the season with a record of 7-6.
Way back in Week 2, San Francisco took down Seattle at home 27-7. However, that 49ers team looked much different than they do here in Week 15. For this matchup, the market consensus has the 49ers sitting as 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 43.5. See all NFL Odds Here.
The 49ers:
Notable Injuries: WR Deebo Samuel (Out), QB Brock Purdy (Questionable)
The 49ers have to be cursed. Every year, this team trots out a roster that has the makings of a Super Bowl favorite, but the injury bug always finds its way to the Bay Area. This year, though, they’re making it work while marching through their opponents on a weekly basis.
While San Francisco’s offense steals a lot of attention, it’s the defense that is the main strength of this roster. They’re currently first in yards allowed per game, 12th against the pass, and first against the run. They are also first in points allowed and currently first in Football Outsiders’ defensive-weighted DVOA.
The @NFL‘s #1 defense is goin’ CRAZY.#ProBowlVote Dre Greenlaw
📺 #TBvsSF on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/d2FDeaE8pp pic.twitter.com/JdaxF7vz5h— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 11, 2022
The unit is led by an awesome linebacker duo of Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner along with an all-world edge rusher in Nick Bosa, and PFF’s fourth-highest-graded cornerback in Charvarius Ward. These stars and the rest of the group will aim to hold this menacing Seattle offense in check.
On offense, San Francisco ranks ninth in yards per game, 13th in passing, and ninth in the run game. They’re also 10th in scoring rate and sixth in Football Outsiders’ offensive-weighted DVOA.
This group has had to make major changes throughout the season. After starting the year with an offense that was worked around mobile quarterback, Trey Lance, the team had to move back to its previous offensive strategy with Jimmy Garoppolo due to a season-ending injury suffered by Lance in Week 2. Now, Garoppolo had a season-ending injury in Week 13, so the 49ers have seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy leading the offense.
San Francisco also has some of the best talents the league offers at skill positions. Deebo Samuel is expected to miss some time with an injury, but they still have Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle leading their group, the 49ers can go toe to toe with any defense. The only question now is if the rookie quarterback can get the most out of them.
The Seahawks:
Notable Injuries: SS Ryan Neal (Questionable)
The Seahawks have been one of the biggest surprises this season. After trading Russell Wilson, most would’ve expected this group to tank for a top quarterback this year. But they’ve done the opposite as a career resurgence from Geno Smith has propelled this team into another winning season.
The defense has been a major weakness for Seattle this season. They rank 28th in yards allowed per game, 18th against the pass, and 31st against the run. However, they’re seventh in defensive turnover rate, so they have the ability to ballhawk opposing offenses at times.
The group doesn’t have many standout performers, but there are some impressive young faces. Third-year safety Ryan Neal has taken a huge step forward this season while fifth-round rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has been sensational and has a shot at being named Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Offensively, the Seahawks have drastically outperformed preseason expectations. They currently rank 13th in yards per game, ninth in passing, and 21st in rushing. They’re also putting up the sixth-most points per game and the seventh-most turnovers per drive.
LET’S GOOOOOOOOO! FOR THE LEAD!
📺: FOX | @DKM14 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/7YPPFb2Ub4
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 5, 2022
A lot of the credit for this group performing so well has to go to Geno Smith and his ability to capitalize on his second chance at being a starting quarterback. That resurgence along, with a much improved offensive line, has been the recipe for Seattle’s offensive success. Also, you can’t forget about their stud receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett along with their star rookie running back Kenneth Walker III.
While this offense has been strong, they have a major hill to climb as they go up against the most imposing defense in the NFL on Thursday.
49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction
This is a tough one to gauge. The 49ers are on a six-game win streak with a dominant defense, and they just dismantled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their third-string quarterback. But they are a hampered roster as Brock Purdy is dealing with a few ailments and the team just lost Deebo Samuel for the next few weeks.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, are coming off of an ugly loss to the Carolina Panthers as Geno Smith has been more turnover prone as of late. Now that they’re 1-3 in their last four weeks, things aren’t looking up as they take on the 49ers’ vaunted defense.
Barring a surge from Seattle with their backs against the wall, it’s safe to say that the 49ers are too large of a match for the Seahawks at the moment.
The Pick: 49ers -3.5
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Brandon Aiyuk ($8,800)
While the 49ers’gameplan centers on Christian McCaffrey and the rushing attack, Brandon Aiyuk could be a strong play here against a struggling Seattle secondary. The Seahawks have allowed the seventh most passing yards per game over their last three games, and Deebo Samuel is injured at the moment. This could be a smash spot for Aiyuk as he operates as one of the main receiving threats on the outside with Deebo gone.
WR – Marquise Goodwin ($6,400)
Marquise Goodwin has had some productive games throughout this season. In his last four games, Goodwin has had outputs of 11.8, 8.5, 2.7, and 20.3. So, while there is the possibility for a rough performance from the speedster, he has been a strong contributor to Seattle’s game plan. Add in that the 49ers have a stellar run defense, so the Seahawks will probably pass a lot to move the ball. Goodwin could be a beneficiary of this passing attack once again this Thursday.
RB – Jordan Mason ($4,800)
This backfield being dominated by Christian McCaffrey might appear to limit the relevance of other running backs on the 49ers, but that hasn’t been the case these last few weeks. Undrafted rookie Jordan Mason has been solid while running efficiently with the opportunities he’s been given. With Deebo Samuel out for this game and the near future, Mason could gain more rushing work against a Seattle defense that has allowed 225.7 rushing yards per game over their last three outings. With this matchup, the rookie has a decent chance to break off some solid runs and possibly find the end zone on Thursday.
