Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Dallas Cowboys (-12) | O/U 40
NFL Week 17 is here and whether you’re hoping your team locks in a playoff spot or your fantasy team locks in a championship, this week is one of the most critical of the season. With many teams banking on a win to stay alive or earn a spot in the playoffs, Week 17 could offer some of the best competition of the year.
Unfortunately, this Thursday Night Football game might have no playoff implications as one team has their chances already tied into their Week 18 game. That could lead to some interesting personnel decisions this week, so player status’ should be monitored.
In the preliminary game of Week 17, we will see the Dallas Cowboys travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans.
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Team Breakdowns
These two teams are in much different situations. The Cowboys are currently 11-4 in second place in the NFC East, this season’s toughest division in football. They’re also coming off a win against the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, albeit without Jalen Hurts.
The Titans are 7-8, on a five-game losing streak, and have lost their division lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re currently on a nosedive, as their most recent loss was to the previously 1-11-1 Houston Texans.
Understandably, the Cowboys are sitting as 12-point favorites according to market consensus while the over/under is currently at 40. See all NFL Odds Here.
The Cowboys:
Notable Injuries: RB Tony Pollard (Out), LB Leighton Vander Esch (Out), LB Micah Parsons (Questionable)
In 2022, the Dallas Cowboys have looked like one of the better teams in football with dominant performances on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball throughout the season. However, they have had their occasional slip-ups as injuries have hurt their previously lockdown defense and their offense has been a bit turnover prone.
On defense, the Cowboys rank 14th in yards allowed per game, 10th against the pass, and 22nd against the run. The team is also first in defensive turnover rate and third in pressure rate. While they’ve been allowing heavy yardage totals as of late, their ability to force turnovers and get to the quarterback still remain.
⚠️ @MicahhParsons11 WARNING: the lion is feeding. Proceed at your own risk! 🦁
📺: @NFLonFOX | #DALvsJAX pic.twitter.com/25AntVrVDH
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) December 18, 2022
This group has some strong players, most notably second-year linebacker Micah Parsons who is currently fifth in the NFL with 13 sacks and the second-highest graded edge in football according to PFF.
Offensively, the Cowboys are eighth in yards per game, 16th in passing, and seventh in rushing. They’re also scoring at the third-highest rate in the league and turning the ball over at the 10th-lowest rate according to season-long metrics.
The unit has some solid receivers, mainly CeeDee Lamb. The running back duo of Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard has been a massive strength with their complimenting run styles. Of course, Dak Prescott is still around and productive. However, he has been struggling with interceptions recently as he’s racked up five in the last three games.
The Titans:
Notable Injuries: DT Jeffery Simmons (Out), S Amani Hooker (Out), LB Zach Cunningham (Out), LB Bud Dupree (Out), RB Derrick Henry (Doubtful), CB Kristian Fulton (Doubtful), DE Denico Autry (Doubtful),
The Titans have been one of the more depressing teams in football lately. After an unexpected 7-3 start to the season, they’ve dropped five in a row while looking like a shell of a football team that has dealt with numerous impactful injuries on both sides of the ball.
Before their recent falloff, the Titans had a stretch earlier in the season where their defense looked formidable as they limited the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals on separate occasions. In season-long rankings, they’re 23rd in yards allowed per game, 31st against the pass, and impressive against the run as they rank second. They’re also allowing the eighth-best in opponent scoring rate while also ranking just 21st in defensive turnover rate.
This defensive line has some studs with Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, and Teair Tart being graded within the top 20 at their respective positions according to PFF. Kevin Byard is always a solid option at safety, but their cornerbacks have been a real struggle with injury and poor play hurting that position.
The offense has been dreadful for most of the year. With the team trading A.J. Brown in the offseason, this team has lost its threat of moving the ball through the air. That has caused the group to be much more predictable than they were previously, and now with Ryan Tannehill out for the foreseeable future, they’re now even less of a threat in the passing game.
In season-long rankings, they’re 30th in yards per game, 30th in passing, and 12th in rushing. The offense is also tied with the Denver Broncos for last in scoring rate. However, they are among the best teams at limiting turnovers with the fourth-lowest offensive turnover rate.
Ruled OUT for the #Titans vs Cowboys:
QB Ryan Tannehill
DL Jeffery Simmons
T Nicholas Petit-Frere
S Amani Hooker
OLB Bud Dupree
LB Zach Cunningham
LB Dylan Cole
DB Josh ThompsonDOUBTFUL:
RB Derrick Henry
CB Kristian Fulton
OLB Denico Autry— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) December 28, 2022
The offense runs through Derrick Henry, but with this game not mattering for Tennessee’s playoff chances, it’s not looking like he will be suiting up for this matchup. That would’ve left rookie quarterback Malik Willis to fend for himself if he wasn’t just benched for former University of Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs. Now with Dobbs making his first career start, it’s anybody’s guess how this offense will operate. In fact, it’s looking like a whole slew of key players will not be making an appearance this Thursday as the Titans gear up for their all-important Week 18 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
With this team missing numerous impactful players, they might as well roll over, because their chances are looking fairly bleak in this one.
Cowboys vs. Titans Prediction
With such a large point spread, the Cowboys are the obvious pick to win this matchup. The real question is if they can cover against the Titans.
Judging by their recent performances, they have a decent shot to get it done as they’ve dropped at least 40 points in three out of their last four games. With the Titans being so dreadful against passing attacks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dallas take advantage with their 10th-ranked passing offense.
Also, with this game being essentially meaningless to Tennessee’s playoff chances, they will be missing a boatload of impact players. With all of that considered, the Cowboys covering appears to be a safe bet.
The Pick: Cowboys -12
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
RB – Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800)
With Tony Pollard hampered heading into this matchup, there is a solid chance that we see more of Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday Night. Elliott has been a solid player for fantasy this season as he’s had a nose for the end zone in this productive Cowboys offense. Now, with Dallas being such heavy favorites in this one, they might lean on the run game to close things out quickly. Elliott could have strong volume that leads to a solid output, even against this tough Titans run defense. He should be a part of most lineups this week, and even warrants consideration as a captain play.
D/ST – Dallas Cowboys ($5,800)
This Tennessee offense has been pretty brutal, and with the possibility that they’re without Derrick Henry, it could be even worse. This matchup appears to be a goldmine for the Cowboys’ defense as Josh Dobbs has little to no experience in real NFL action. Also, with a large portion of their offensive line being injured, Dallas’ defense, which ranks third in pressure rate, should find its way to the quarterback in this one. Even with their recent struggles at stopping opposing offenses, the Cowboys’ D/ST is looking like a strong play in this one.
RB – Hassan Haskins ($3,000)
Thanks to the Titans resting their starters, the door has been opened for Hassan Haskins to operate as the lead running back for Tennessee. With Derrick Henry active, Haskins has seen minimal usage, but this is his week to showcase his abilities on the professional level. The rookie was rumored to be a candidate for a “big role” on Thursday, making him one of the few solid starts on the Titans. That should make Haskins a decent play this week as an option that could be a surprise focal point for the Titans against the Cowboys.
