Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) | O/U 44.5
Week 8 of the NFL season is here and the action will be starting on Thursday with a marquee matchup between two strong teams. For Week 8’s edition of Thursday Night Football, Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens will be heading down to Florida to take on Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Team Breakdowns
Both of these teams have been struggling as of late. The Ravens started out as one of the most potent offenses in the league, but they’ve been floundering for the past month. Most of the issues can be attributed to the questionable play calling from offensive coach Greg Roman as he and Lamar Jackson don’t seem to be meshing well. The team will look to get back to their usual form in Week 8.
The Buccaneers have looked like a shell of themselves for the entirety of the season. They started out with ugly wins against the Cowboys and the Saints, but they’ve lost four out of their last five. Two of those losses came against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers, but their previous two came against two abysmal teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers. We’ll see if they can turn around their ugly season this week.
The Ravens are currently 1.5-point favorites heading into this matchup with over/under set at 45 points.
The Ravens:
Notable Injuries: TE Mark Andrews (Questionable), RB Gus Edwards (Questionable), DE Calais Campbell (Questionable), WR Rashod Bateman (Questionable)
The Ravens have been a head-scratcher this season. They started out looking like one of the top offensive teams in the league while having a putrid defense. However, in the last month, the offense has started to look putrid while the defense has taken a step forward into being one of the better units as of late.
On defense, the team is currently 23rd in yards allowed per game (366.4 yds), however, their early performances are holding them down in season-long averages. Over the past four weeks, the Ravens’ average yards allowed is down to 297.75 yards per game and they’ve elevated themselves to 12th overall in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA.
As for their personnel, they have a solid cornerback duo of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, a couple of strong defensive linemen in Justin Madubuike and Calais Campbell, a menacing linebacker in Patrick Queen, and a solid recent acquisition in veteran edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul. This group has been steadily improving as the weeks go by and they’ll aim to continue on their trajectory against a struggling Tampa Bay offense.
Jason Pierre-Paul on playing against his former team in Tampa: “There’s no bad blood but I want to show them what they don’t have.” pic.twitter.com/yCklxhy1s6
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) October 25, 2022
On offense, Baltimore is currently 14th in yards per game (346 yds). However, much like their defense, their offense has been on the opposite path it was on at the beginning of the season. To start the year, Lamar Jackson was playing out of his mind and appeared to be on his way to a second MVP award. But for the past month, the star quarterback and the rest of the offense have been struggling to push the ball downfield.
This lack of production may have something to do with the current health of second-year wide receiver Rashod Bateman. Bateman suffered a sprained foot in Baltimore’s Week 4 loss to the Buffalo Bills, and after that, the offense has been on a downward spiral without their top wide receiver. He returned to action in Week 7 but is reported to be hampered once again with a foot injury. Tight end Mark Andrews is also dealing with a knee injury, so there is a slight chance that Lamar Jackson is without his top two options in the passing game this week.
We’ll see if they can change the direction this offense is heading in, but with the recent injury reports, things are looking down at the moment.
The Buccaneers:
Notable Injuries: TE Cameron Brate (Out), SS Antoine Winfield Jr. (Out), WR Russell Gage (Out), G Luke Goedeke (Out), CB Carlton Davis (Out), WR Julio Jones (GTD), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Out)
With high expectations coming into the 2022 season after Tom Brady’s retirement and unretirement, the Buccaneers have done nothing but disappoint up to this point. They’re currently 3-4 at the top of the NFC South, so the sky hasn’t fallen just yet. But if they ever needed a turnaround game, this one is certainly it.
On defense, Tampa Bay is currently ranked seventh in yards allowed per game while being especially good against the pass but they’ve been middling against the run. This run defense is not what we’ve seen for the past two years where the Buccaneers were almost impossible to run on.
They’re missing the veteran presence of DT Ndamukong Suh and their replacement for Suh, Akiem Hicks, has been missing from the lineup with a foot injury he suffered in Week 2. His absence has also resulted in the run-stopping beast, Vita Vea, being double-teamed on a more consistent basis which has opened up more running lanes for opposing offenses. This was clearly seen in their Week 6 matchup against the Carolina Panthers where they allowed 181 combined rushing yards to D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.
The Panthers set a season-high in rush yards in their first game without Christian McCaffrey. 👀 pic.twitter.com/homG7NhXOY
— theScore (@theScore) October 23, 2022
The rest of the defense is led by strong options like cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David. Their other linebacker in Devin White has been a major disappointment as he is currently top-5 among linebackers in missed tackle rate.
On offense, they’ve been a shell of themselves. Through offensive line issues, receiver injuries, and a possible step back taken by Tom Brady, this offense is currently giving off strong 2019 Patriots vibes at the moment. They currently rank 22nd in yards per game and are currently the third-worst NFL team of all time in actual performance versus their preseason scoring expectations.
While their offensive line has been hampered by injuries, the rest of the offense has struggled despite their skill position stalwarts still being around. They have their solid running back in Leonard Fournette who is backed up by a rookie with potential in Rachaad White while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still hanging around as their strong wide receiver duo. We’ll see if they can pick up the pace against this Baltimore secondary.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Prediction
This matchup is huge for both teams with the potential of being a solid game. However, due to the recent play of both teams and the injuries hampering their lineups, it could easily head in the direction of being a snoozer that is low in scoring. Much like most of the Thursday Night Football matchups, the under is looking mighty attractive.
As for who I’m rolling with, it’s gotta be the Ravens. While Baltimore has had their own share of struggles, they dwarf compared to the issues that the Buccaneers are facing at the moment. Tom Brady is not playing like himself, and that is in large part due to the struggles of the interior offensive line. Offensive line issues have proved to be Brady’s Achilles heel in the past, and that appears to be the main issue this season as their plays have a hard time developing with very little time.
Even with Baltimore’s injuries as a team, they’re improving on the defensive side, and I’d expect Lamar Jackson’s top option Mark Andrews to still be available come Thursday night.
The Pick: Ravens -1.5
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Gus Edwards ($7,600)
Based on the recent performances by the Buccaneers and their struggles to stop the run, Gus Edwards could be a solid play on this slate. He has strong touchdown upside, and he’s by far the best back on this roster after leading this backfield in carries despite returning from a lengthy stint on the PUP list. Tampa Bay just allowed 181 yards on the ground to the Panthers’ unimpressive backfield. Edwards could be in a smash spot here.
WR – Chris Godwin ($9,000)
With the Buccaneers struggling to complete deep plays downfield, Chris Godwin has been getting peppered with short targets. In the past two weeks, Godwin has seen 12 and 13 targets respectively. There isn’t much indication that Tampa Bay’s offense will get much more explosive, so Chris Godwin offers a strong floor due to his receptions with the possibility for a bigger performance.
TE – Cade Otton ($5,000)
With his teammate Cameron Brate being ruled out, Cade Otton offers solid upside as Tom Brady has given him work whenever he’s the lone option at tight end. When Brate has been unavailable, Otton has seen seven targets and five targets. As a rookie, he is building trust with Brady which is allowing him to see more weekly opportunities. The first-year tight end could be in for another involved game against a Baltimore defense that is currently 24th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA against tight ends.
