Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Rams
In a rematch of Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots will look to keep their postseason hopes alive in a road battle against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have had their issues with the AFC East this season, dropping games to Buffalo and Miami. In what should be a defense-oriented clash, time of possession will be the key to victory for both teams. Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this matchup between the longest-tenured coach in the NFL (Bill Belichick) and wunderkind Sean McVay.
Game Info
- Spread: Rams -5
- Total: 44.5
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The Patriots are underdogs in this one for good reason. With virtually no passing game to speak of, many of their wins have come courtesy of their elite defense and special teams units. That being said, the Pats looked like a brand new team last week against the Chargers, blowing out the Rams cross-town neighbors by a score of 45-0. Jared Goff should be shaking in his boots after seeing what this defense did to Justin Herbert, as New England’s secondary tormented the rookie all day long.
Say what you will about the Cam Newton-led offense, but it’s gotten the job done recently. It’s no secret that the Rams have an excellent defense, highlighted by All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald and shutdown corner Jalen Ramsay. However, containing Newton and the rest of the Patriots’ running backs will be easier said than done. Whichever team can manage to shake their opponent’s QB the most should emerge victoriously.
New England Patriots
- Overall: 6-6 SU
- Road: 2-3
The road to victory for New England will be paved by the legs of Cam Newton and Damien Harris. The Patriots are averaging 150.9 rushing yards-per-game as a team, the third-best mark in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles has surrendered an average of 93.1 rushing yards-per-game, which also happens to be the third-best mark in the league. The Patriots are 5-2 when rushing for at least 150.9 yards in a game this season, so if they can reach that number they should have a good chance to win this game.
Turnovers have been the area that has killed the team this season, as five of their losses have come in games where their QB has turned the ball over, while four of their wins have come in games without an interception. With Jalen Ramsay shadowing No. 1 wideout Jakobi Meyers, the run game will be as important as ever if the Patriots hope to steal a win on the road. With games against Buffalo and Miami on the horizon, the Patriots need a win this week in order to stand any chance of securing a Wild Card berth in the AFC.
Los Angeles Rams
- Overall: 8-4 SU
- Home: 4-1
The Rams are at their best at home, though their most recent defeat came at the hands of the 49ers under these conditions. If LA’s top players bring their A-game to this one, the Patriots will stand no chance. But we’ve known the Rams to run hot and cold this season, with all four of their defeats this season coming after a victory. The last time we saw Jared Goff play the Patriots he looked helpless, leading a prolific Rams offense to a mere three points in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time. Yes, the former No. 1 overall pick just played one of the best games of his career in the Rams’ win over Arizona on Sunday. But this is Jared Goff we’re talking about. You really never know what you’ll get from him.
As great as Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are, the Patriots secondary is definitely capable of shutting them down, with a trio of Pro Bowl-caliber corners (2019 DPOY Stephon Gilmore, NFL interceptions leader J.C Jackson, and feisty veteran Jason McCourty) countering them. For the Rams to win this game, they’ll need to stick with what’s been working for them all season long — the run game. Following the emergence of Cam Akers — a high priority waiver wire pickup in many fantasy leagues this week — the Rams would be wise to feed him and Darrell Henderson the ball against a defense that has surrendered 118.8 rushing yards-per-game on the year. As much as I want to favor my Patriots this week, I’m certain that the Rams will figure out a way to win this one. However, given the generous spread for this game, picking the Patriots to cover is not a bad idea either. Lastly, if you’re betting on total points, take the under all day long.
Best Player Props
These odds and more found at DraftKings Sportsbook
Damiere Byrd | Score a Touchdown +500
- While the Patriots have only thrown for a handful of touchdowns this season — eight to be exact — Byrd’s odds here are rather favorable. With Jalen Ramsay expected to lockdown to Jakobi Meyers this week, Byrd should be Cam Newton’s go-to target. While he’s not an ideal red-zone target at 5’9, 170 lbs, the former Arizona Cardinal is a burner who could house the ball on the right throw. Logging a 95.9% snap share this season, Byrd will likely be on the field for the majority of plays in this game. If my hypothesis rings true, Byrd could net you a nice payday if he hits pay dirt.
Darrell Henderson | Score a Touchdown +120
- It’s rare to find a starting running back with such favorable odds to score a touchdown, especially one with six touchdowns already this season. I attribute this to what I’m dubbing Cam Akers Mania. While that name doesn’t have the same catchiness as Minshew Mania, it’s an accurate description of what’s happened following the rookie’s breakthrough performance against the Cardinals. I’m taking these odds on Henderson all day long.
N’Keal Harry | More than 2.5 receptions +125
- Harry has been extremely disappointing this season, but this bar is far too low even for him. With Meyers likely locked up by Jalen Ramsay, Harry’s target volume should increase in this one. He’s caught more than two passes in four games this season, so I feel good chasing this prop.
