Los Angelas Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday night football in week 5 features an exciting matchup between two 3-1 teams who just so happen to be divisional rivals. The Rams travel north to Seattle after suffering their first loss of the season, a surprising 55-40 beating at the hands of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back with a solid 27-10 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. The winner of this game will stand alone at the top of the NFC West standings and it’s arguably one of the better NFL games this week both in real life and fantasy football.
The Seahawks are slight 1.5 point home favorites in this game and the Vegas over/under currently sits at 49. This Seahawks team is implied for 25.5 points, the 7th most of any team but also is facing a Rams defense that ranks 4th overall in DVOA and fifth against the pass. Something has to give, and after watching the Rams secondary get torched by Jameis Winston last week, I think it’s reasonable to think that the Seahawks are going to score some points in this game. Even if it’s just in mop-up time, they’ve shown the ability to rack up yards and points.
On the other side of this matchup, the Rams offense has scored at least 20 points in each of their four games this season. They have a dangerous, balanced offense with a number of different weapons and an offensive mastermind calling the plays in Sean McVay. Seattle’s defense grades out in the middle of the pack at 15th in DVOA and has been weaker against the pass (17th) than the run (6th). I usually give the advantage to defenses on Thursday nights, but I think we are going to see a good bit of offense from both teams tonight and Vegas agrees.
CAPTAIN SLOT
I usually try to use running backs or receivers as my captain, not quarterbacks. The exception would be if there is a mobile quarterback who is a threat to run for touchdowns (like Russell Wilson, for example) or a quarterback that spreads the ball around to a bunch of different receivers (like Carson Wentz).
Russell Wilson (15.9k)
Wilson is likely a popular pick at captain, but there aren’t many other players in this game who have his ceiling. If this game does, in fact, shoot out, then he is going to have to attempt 40+ passes to keep pace with the Rams offense. The Seahawks will try to establish the run, but if they are going to win this game it’s likely going to be on the play of Wilson and the Seattle passing game. He’s pricey, but he’s been great this year and flashed his ceiling two weeks ago when he threw for 400 yards, two scores, and ran in two more touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp (14.4k)
Kupp is the obvious choice if you’re going to play a Rams receiver in the captain slot, as he leads the team in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. His rapport with Jared Goff is excellent and he’s the guy that Goff looks for on third down and in the red zone. He works out of the slot most of the time and is able to exploit mismatches with linebackers or nickel backs. I won’t be surprised if he’s the Rams leading receiver again tonight.
Todd Gurley (13.2k)
Gurley has been moderately productive so far this season, he just hasn’t broken out for a huge game yet. But there are some signs that he has one coming and it could be in this spot against a Seattle defensive front that will be outmatched against the Rams offensive line. Gurley had only 15 rushing yards last week but scored two touchdowns on short goalline runs and added 7 catches for 54 yards on 11 targets. He’s still not getting the volume we were used to seeing last year before his injury, but he’s still a threat to score multiple touchdowns every game and his involvement in the short passing game is a huge part of this offense.
Chris Carson (12.3k)
After nearly getting benched by his coach for fumbling concerns, Carson bounced back last week with a 100-yard outing against the Cardinals and protected the ball while doing so. The return of Rashard Penny may or may not affect him in this game as we have to wait and see how much Pete Carroll wants to get Penny involved, but Carson has looked great this year other than the fumbles and is averaging nearly four targets per game in addition to having 15 or more carries in every game. He’s too good and too big of a piece of this Seattle offense to ignore in showdown formats.
FLEX PLAYS
I definitely want as much correlation as possible in my lineups so if my captain is a receiver, I am usually going to stack him with his quarterback most of the time, although I don’t think you always have to do it. I’m not all that high on Jared Goff in this game based on his price, but if you are playing a lot of lineups with his receivers in them then it makes sense to get some exposure to him, too. Here are the rest of my favorite plays from both teams.
Tyler Lockett (9.4k)
Robert Woods (8k)
Woods seemed like he might be the forgotten man of the three Rams receivers until last week when he posted a massive 13-154 total in the Rams’ loss to the Bucs. The target distribution for these L.A. receivers is going to vary from game to game and they are all really talented, so if you’re targeting the Rams’ passing game (and I am) then you simply have to get some exposure to all three of them.
Brandin Cooks (7.8k)
Cooks is the big-play threat in the Rams’ passing game and also the cheapest of the trio of Rams receivers. He’s an ideal GPP play based on the boom/bust nature of his game, while Kupp and Woods are safer plays due to their target volume and roles as possession receivers. I think Cooks could be the lowest owned of the three and I really like him to have a big night against a Seattle secondary that just isn’t very good.
Will Dissly (7.6k)
Dissly now has four touchdowns and 20 targets over his last three games and is emerging as Wilson’s favorite red-zone target. He could very well be a popular play based on his recent production, but you have to get some exposure to him, especially if you think that Seattle is going to have to throw the ball a lot in this game.
Rashard Penny (5k)
Penny is one of my favorite cheap plays in this game and I’m going to have him in a lot of lineups. He’s missed the last two games due to injury but should be involved in the game plan tonight with Chris Carson coming off a 22-carry game only four days ago. Penny and Carson were projected to be in a timeshare this year, but so far Carson has dominated the touches. If Carson were to lose a fumble early, get hurt, or we just see Pete Carroll limit his touches then Penny could be an elite play with 10 touches at this price. He’s averaging five yards a carry this year in two games.
Greg Zuerlein (3.4k)
Greg “the leg” is an elite showdown play and one of the best kickers in the NFL. Using kickers on Draftkings is a great way to save salary and I think you’re going to need him in most of your lineups tonight in order to fit a bunch of the higher-priced offensive weapons from both teams.
Other options to consider: Rams D/ST, Seahawks D/ST
Final Thoughts/Game Theory/Roster Construction
In showdown contests, we are trying to predict game flow so it makes sense to build lineups based on the most likely outcomes that you predict will happen. The Rams and Seahawks passing game pieces are likely going to be popular but I also like the backs from both teams, too, especially because they both have roles in the passing game. I do think this game ends up being a high-scoring affair and therefore I want most of my builds to have three offensive players from one of the teams. Defenses will be contrarian plays that could pay off if we see turnovers and kickers are a great way to save salary cap space.
You have to play some of the obvious plays and eat some chalk. You can be different by switching up your captain and mixing in a few different secondary pieces but don’t overthink roster construction! Don’t play quarterbacks against opposing defenses or running backs from the same team, but just about every other combination is on the table. I highly recommend playing multiple lineups but avoiding the urge to try and play every player and chase every projected outcome. Like any DFS slate, go heavy on your favorite core plays and then mix and match your secondary plays.
Good luck and thanks for reading my Thursday night breakdown here at FantasyData, where we offer the best tools for season-long fantasy football and NFL DFS!
