New York Giants at New England Patriots
Thursday night football kicks off week 6 on the NFL schedule and this week it features the undefeated New England Patriots playing host to an extremely banged-up New York Giants team. The Patriots are huge 16.5 point home favorites in this game and the Vegas over/under currently sits at 42. The defending champs are tough to beat at home and this year have been mowing down teams in their first five games with the exception being a close win against Buffalo on the road in week 4. Meanwhile, this young Giants team is going to be without Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman and probably Evan Engram, too.
This game looks like it could be very lopsided and the vast majority of showdown lineups are going to be built with the expectation that Patriots win big. I think you definitely have to anticipate that outcome in your cash game roster construction and if you are playing multiple GPP lineups then I would also suggest being “overweight” on the Patriots key pieces. Changing your player in the captain slot around this week might be one way to get different and figuring out which Giants player(s) end up being the most productive is likely the other key to cashing on this slate.
CAPTAIN SLOT
I usually try to use running backs or receivers as my captain, not quarterbacks. The exception would be if there is a mobile quarterback who is a threat to run for touchdowns (like Russell Wilson or Desean Watson, for example) or a quarterback that spreads the ball around to a bunch of different receivers (like Tom Brady).
Tom Brady (17.7k)
The GOAT is really expensive here in the captain slot, but he is definitely one of only a few guys who have a chance at being the highest-scoring player in the game. A lot of people will focus on the Patriots run game and assume that they will be playing from in front and working the clock, but Brady threw for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns last week in a game with a similar spread and an inferior opponent in the Redskins. The Giants rank 29th in the league in pass defense and Brady should carve them up tonight if the Pats decide they want to throw the ball. If he throws touchdowns to multiple different receivers and spreads the ball around, he could end up being the top play and having some exposure to him as a captain is recommended.
Patriots D/ST (9.3k)
The Patriots defense is the number one overall defense in DVOA. They lead the league in fewest yards per game, points per game, sacks, and interceptions. They are at home tonight and facing a rookie quarterback who is without his top three offensive weapons and the weather is supposed to be cool and possibly rainy. This defense is averaging 19.4 Draftkings points per game which is second only to Brady for the most of any play on the slate. I’m locking them into the captain slot in my cash game build to save salary and allow myself to fit more expensive Patriots players.
Sony Michel (11.4k)
Michel is the Pats running back who gets the early-down carries and goalline work. If Rex Burkhead misses again this week, then Michel and White will both absorb some of those snaps (Brandon Bolden played only 11 snaps last week). The game script here should be favorable for Michel as you’d think the Pats would feed him the ball once they get up on the Giants early and he caught all three of his targets in the passing game last week, too. He will be a popular play but for good reason.
Julian Edelman (15.6k)
Edelman is officially listed as questionable but all indications are that he will be ready to go Thursday night. He’s coming off his best game of the season as he caught 8 balls for 110 yards and a touchdown. He is Brady’s favorite receiver and the two of them know exactly what the other one is doing. He has a great floor for cash games with his large number of targets and one of the highest ceilings if he gets into the end zone. Stacking Brady and Edelman should be a priority in this game.
FLEX PLAYS
I definitely want as much correlation as possible in my lineups so if my captain is a receiver, I am usually going to stack him with his quarterback most of the time, although I don’t think you always have to do it. Here are the rest of my favorite plays from both teams.
Golden Tate (7k) and Darius Slayton (6k)
You have to roster at least one Giants player tonight in order to make an eligible lineup, so my top choices are the two top receivers for New York. Tate turned in a disappointing outing last week in his return from suspension but he’s going to be the WR1 on Thursday night with Shepard out. Darius Slayton has been a nice surprise this year for the Giants and was productive last week catching four passes for 62 yards and a score. With the Giants likely needing to pass the ball and play catch up, these are two highest floor plays for New York and they’re both easy to fit into your lineup.
James White (6.8k)
Josh Gordon (9k)
I had a lot of Gordon in my lineups last week, so naturally, he didn’t do all that much while Edelman went off. He will be lower owned than Edelman and is a big-play threat in this offense, running vertical routes down the field. If you’re using Brady (and you should) then you’re going to want to pair him with at least one of Edelman or Gordon and you could even stack him with both.
Jon Hilliman (5.8k)
Hilliman out-carried Elijhaa Penny 9 to 3 last week against Minnesota after Wayne Gallman went down with an injury early in the game. Both guys got one reception each and who knows which of them will end up getting more work on Thursday, but Hilliman seems to be ahead of Penny on the depth chart at this point. Neither of them are great plays against this stout run defense but are more large field GPP plays.
Jakobi Meyers (4.8k)
Meyers is really only in play if Phillip Dorsett misses this game, which sounds very possible at this point. He played nearly half the snaps last week and anyone who’s lining up that often in Tom Brady’s offense is worthy of consideration and could end up being the top receiver on any given day. Brady is a master of taking what the defense is giving him so Meyers is a sneaky play if he ends up being the WR3 on Thursday night.
Other options to consider: Mike Nugent, Elijhaa Penny, Matt Lacosse, Brandon Bolden
Final Thoughts/Game Theory/Roster Construction
In showdown contests, we are trying to predict game flow so it makes sense to build lineups based on the most likely outcomes that you predict will happen. Again, the most likely outcome of this game tonight is a lopsided Patriots victory. I would make the majority of your teams reflect that outcome by going heavy on the Patriots players and defense, but stacking some Giants will be one way to be very contrarian. How many Patriots is too many? Honestly, I think you can play 5 and feel pretty good about it, at least in cash games. This game could get ugly.
You have to play some of the obvious plays and eat some chalk. You can be different by switching up your captain and mixing in a few different secondary pieces but don’t overthink roster construction! Don’t play quarterbacks against opposing defenses or running backs from the same team, but just about every other combination is on the table. I highly recommend playing multiple lineups but avoiding the urge to try and play every player and chase every projected outcome. Like any DFS slate, go heavy on your favorite core plays and then mix and match your secondary plays.
Good luck and thanks for reading my Thursday night breakdown here at FantasyData, where we offer the best tools for season-long fantasy football and NFL DFS!
