Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour concludes its 2021-2022 campaign this week in Atlanta, Georgia, and it will be extremely interesting to see how it all shakes out. Will Scottie Scheffler hold onto his two-stroke lead and win for the first time, will Patrick Cantlay defend his title, or will someone emerge from lower down? These questions and more will be answered on Sunday evening, and I can’t wait! We have all 30 players in action this week, but some are injured, so we may or may not see all 30 finish all four rounds.
There’s an insane $75M purse to be won this week, and the winner takes home a ridiculous $18M. East Lake Golf Club is 7,346 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years, excluding starting strokes, is -11.3, so it’s a fairly tricky course. Place bets on golfers who are accurate off the tee blocks (this stat is the most critical by far!), have a solid approach game, are sound off the tee, fabulous from tee to green, and can hit a long ball.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the TOUR Championship this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts? Patrick Cantlay with 4, Tony Finau with 3, Scott Stallings with 3, and a few players have 2 including Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, and Brian Harman.
2. Bet with or without starting strokes this week? I’m quite honestly having a hard time figuring this one out myself. I think I’ll be betting without starting strokes since the betting odds are more juicy, but I’ll likely make a few starting stroke bets as well – especially outright wagers and top 5’s.
3. Can Cantlay win the last two playoff events again and take the FedEx Cup once more? We have never seen a player defending the FedEx Cup, but Cantlay is well positioned to make some noise this week as he’s 2nd only to Scottie Scheffler in terms of starting strokes at -8 versus Scottie’s -10, and we know he can play well on this track since he won a year ago.
Quick Links:
Note that the below betting odds DON’T INCLUDE STARTING STROKES
+1000 and lower
Patrick Cantlay (+750) – He’s peaking at just the right time of the season with four top 8’s in his last five starts including winning last week’s BMW Championship and he had a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three starts ago. Every part of his game is in great shape and he’s fully capable of winning it all again this year – that would be $33M combined! I feel good about betting him to win, to finish top 5, and top 10.
Xander Schauffele (+750) – Schauffele has been darn right deadly on this track as he had the best score here two years ago and had a T3 last year. He has two wins in his last five starts and is coming off a T3 last week where he gained 8.63 strokes ball-striking. It’s not hard thinking about betting him the same way as Cantlay above.
Avoid: Jon Rahm (+900) – The options here are just too juicy, I’ll more than likely be betting Rahm to finish top 5 or top 10, but won’t bet him outright since he just can’t find a way to win right now unless you count the Mexico Open, of course.
+1100 to +2000
Tony Finau (+1600) – Finau has been stellar over his last four starts with two wins, a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he wasn’t nearly his best last week but was still better than average. If his approach game returns to form this week, he should have a solid finish and I’m good with betting him to finish top 5 and/or top 10.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800) – He was really rolling along well with numerous top 10’s recently including his U.S. Open win in late June, but he faltered last week in the approach category losing 7.68 strokes to the field. He seems to rebound in a hurry and I expect a top 5 or a top 10 out of him this week – bet him accordingly.
Avoid: Justin Thomas (+1200) – I love JT, but he has been experimenting and tinkering with things, and his approach game and putting haven’t been too sharp as a result. I’ll be ready to lay down money on him early next season I’m sure, but not this week.
+2100 to +3000
Adam Scott (+2200) – Scott has been dialed in over the last two weeks with consecutive T5’s and it’s because his game is quite sound in every department, especially his short game as he has gained over 12 strokes combined between the two playoff events. I don’t think I would bet him to finish top 5 again this week, but a top 10 wager is more than doable.
Corey Conners (+2800) – He’s a ball-striking machine and gained another 8.82 strokes in the stat category last week en route to a T5. If only his short game was a bit better than average, he would be constantly in contention to win as he lost 1.82 strokes between his around the game play and putting last week and still had a top 5. I’ll look at him as a top 5 wager this week, but may only do a top 10 bet.
Avoid: Max Homa (+2800) – Homa has lost strokes on approach in five straight events and hasn’t had a top 10 since early June. The rest of his game is quite good, but I’m a sucker for strong approach play so I can’t endorse laying down money on Max this week.
+3100 and higher
Scott Stallings (+8000) – He has been on a big heater over his last six tournaments played with five top 13’s including his runner-up last week where he lost to Cantlay by just one stroke. Everything has been fantastic lately, especially his ball-striking, and I may bet a couple of dollars for him to win this week, and will most certainly be betting him to finish top 5 and top 10.
Brian Harman (+6000) – Harman should feel right at home this week in his home State, and he has three top 8’s over his last six starts, so he has my attention. I’ll be betting him to finish top 10 this week, and you may want to look at doing that as well.
Avoid: Tom Hoge (+15000) – Outside of Hoge’s T4 three starts ago, he has missed seven cut lines over his last nine starts and had a T48 last week with mediocre stats. I have him pegged to finish 30th this week, but he would still bank $500K for his efforts – not too shabby!
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
