These days, analytics and metrics have become all the rage, not just in football, but every sport. Utilizing that data has had a profound change on how all teams try to win and the clubs that do the best job analyzing and reacting are, more often than not, the teams that stand atop the sports landscape when all the smoke has cleared.
Smart fantasy football players recognized this a long time ago. The growth of once unfathomable metrics has become a common, everyday part of successful fantasy football preparations. FantasyData is proud to be on the cutting edge of the metrics that help power the fantasy football industry.
One of those metrics, called True Catch Rate, helps measure which wide receivers actually have the best hands by measuring the percentage of receptions made using only catchable targets. True catch rate eliminates overthrown passes, throwaways and other errant throws that might have otherwise been credited towards the wideout and had a negative impact on his standard catch percentage.
True catch rate is the first of many advanced metrics that we’ll be covering this summer as we look to provide you the edge you’ll need heading into fantasy football draft season. For now, let’s begin with a look at which wide receivers actually had the best hands last season, and how it might impact the league in 2019.
All players charted had a minimum of 30 targets in 2018
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM 2018 | TARGET | REC | YDS | TD | TRUE RATE | DROP | RATE |
| 1 | Become a Premium Member | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% | |||||
| 2 | Become a Premium Member | 96.60% | 0 | 0.00% | |||||
| 3 | Taylor Gabriel | ATL | 93 | 67 | 688 | 2 | 93.10% | 1 | 1.10% |
| 4 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 86 | 65 | 672 | 3 | 92.90% | 1 | 1.20% |
| 5 | Rashard Higgins | CLE | 54 | 39 | 572 | 4 | 92.90% | 4 | 7.40% |
| 6 | Become a Premium Member | 92.60% | 4 | 3.70% | |||||
| 7 | Become a Premium Member | 90.30% | 2 | 4.30% | |||||
| 8 | Tre’quan Smith | NO | 44 | 28 | 427 | 5 | 90.30% | 2 | 4.50% |
| 9 | Become a Premium Member | 90.00% | 4 | 6.20% | |||||
| 10 | Christian Kirk | ARZ | 68 | 43 | 590 | 3 | 89.60% | 3 | 4.40% |
| 11 | Become a Premium Member | 89.30% | 4 | 2.70% | |||||
| 12 | Become a Premium Member | 88.90% | 3 | 5.40% | |||||
| 13 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 163 | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 88.50% | 3 | 1.80% |
| 14 | Become a Premium Member | 88.40% | 6 | 9.80% | |||||
| 15 | Become a Premium Member | 87.80% | 3 | 6.80% | |||||
| 16 | Jordy Nelson | OAK | 88 | 63 | 739 | 3 | 87.50% | 2 | 2.30% |
| 17 | Chris Hogan | NE | 53 | 35 | 532 | 3 | 87.50% | 2 | 3.80% |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM 2018 | TARGET | REC | YDS | TD | TRUE RATE | DROP | RATE |
| 1 | Will Fuller | HOU | 45 | 32 | 503 | 4 | 100.0 % | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 2 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 71 | 57 | 965 | 10 | 96.6 % | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 3 | Taylor Gabriel | ATL | 93 | 67 | 688 | 2 | 93.1 % | 1 | 1.1 % |
| 4 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 86 | 65 | 672 | 3 | 92.9 % | 1 | 1.2 % |
| 5 | Rashard Higgins | CLE | 54 | 39 | 572 | 4 | 92.9 % | 4 | 7.4 % |
| 6 | Amari Cooper | OAK/DAL | 108 | 75 | 1004 | 7 | 92.6 % | 4 | 3.7 % |
| 7 | Maurice Harris | WAS | 47 | 28 | 304 | 0 | 90.3 % | 2 | 4.3 % |
| 8 | Tre’quan Smith | NO | 44 | 28 | 427 | 5 | 90.3 % | 2 | 4.5 % |
| 9 | Seth Roberts | OAK | 65 | 45 | 494 | 2 | 90.0 % | 4 | 6.2 % |
| 10 | Christian Kirk | ARZ | 68 | 43 | 590 | 3 | 89.6 % | 3 | 4.4 % |
| 11 | Michael Thomas | NO | 147 | 125 | 1405 | 9 | 89.3 % | 4 | 2.7 % |
| 12 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 56 | 40 | 566 | 6 | 88.9 % | 3 | 5.4 % |
| 13 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 163 | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 88.5 % | 3 | 1.8 % |
| 14 | Randall Cobb | GB | 61 | 38 | 383 | 2 | 88.4 % | 6 | 9.8 % |
| 15 | Ryan Switzer | PIT | 44 | 36 | 253 | 1 | 87.8 % | 3 | 6.8 % |
| 16 | Jordy Nelson | OAK | 88 | 63 | 739 | 3 | 87.5 % | 2 | 2.3 % |
| 17 | Chris Hogan | NE | 53 | 35 | 532 | 3 | 87.5 % | 2 | 3.8 % |
| 18 | Davante Adams | GB | 169 | 111 | 1386 | 13 | 87.4 % | 8 | 4.7 % |
| 19 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | 108 | 76 | 1028 | 7 | 87.4 % | 5 | 4.6 % |
| 20 | Willie Snead | BAL | 95 | 62 | 651 | 1 | 87.3 % | 4 | 4.2 % |
| 21 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 148 | 102 | 1021 | 9 | 87.2 % | 4 | 2.7 % |
| 22 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | 64 | 41 | 653 | 5 | 87.2 % | 2 | 3.1 % |
| 23 | Brandin Cooks | LAR | 116 | 80 | 1204 | 5 | 87.0 % | 2 | 1.7 % |
| 24 | Sammy Watkins | KC | 55 | 40 | 519 | 3 | 87.0 % | 1 | 1.8 % |
| 25 | Paul Richardson | WAS | 35 | 20 | 262 | 2 | 87.0 % | 1 | 2.9 % |
The Best Hands in the NFL
Notable for struggling to stay healthy, Will Fuller was also plagued by untimely drops during his first two pro seasons before working extremely hard in the offseason to improve his hands. That effort paid off as the third-year speedster was the only notable receiver in the NFL to compile a perfect 100% true catch rate. Fuller caught all 32 catchable targets thrown his way and was on a 73/1150/9 pace before suffering a season-ending torn ACL.
Health will always be the primary concern for Fuller, who has missed 17 of a possible 48 games (35%) with various ailments. But surrounded by a terrific young signal-caller, one of the top wideouts in football, and a promising sophomore slot receiver in Keke Coutee, Fuller is on the verge of superstardom.
Tyler Lockett was nothing short of spectacular in 2018. Not only did he commit zero drops, but he also led the NFL in contested catch rate (88.9%), yards per target (13.6), and drew six defensive pass interference penalties which resulted in a league-leading 182 additional yards for Seattle.
Locket also became the first wide receiver since at least 2002 with at least 15 targets to post a perfect 158.3 passer rating when being targeted by his quarterback, a phenomenal feat for a player that is targeted so deep downfield. The retirement of Doug Baldwin should result in Lockett moving into the slot, which could hurt his efficiency while also providing a huge boost in targets and receptions. He’s a locked-in WR1 this season.
Amari Cooper has also battled drops throughout his NFL tenure but an unexpected trade to Dallas proved to be very beneficial for Cooper’s hands and fantasy value. Cooper was the only wideout in the top-15 total catch rate standings to surpass 100 targets. After joining the Cowboys, Cooper averaged a healthy 8.4 targets, 5.9 receptions and 80 receiving yards per game–a 134/94/1280 16-game pace.
Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Cooper is set to post the best numbers of his career and sign a lucrative, long-term contract this offseason. By putting those drop concerns behind him and resembling the elite player he was in his first two pro seasons, Amari Cooper will contend for WR1 status in 2019.
Michael Thomas set an NFL record by catching 85% of the passes thrown his way and ranked 11th with a true catch rate of 89.3%. Thomas also finished 9th in the league with 147 targets, led the NFL with 125 grabs and committed only four drops. Since entering the league three years ago, Thomas has finished as the WR7, WR6, and WR6 in PPR leagues. He’s as consistent as they come.
An untimely torn ACL ended Cooper Kupp‘s second season after only eight games. Kupp was thriving in every category and ended up ranking 12th in true catch rate. Kupp’s first-half numbers placed him in WR1 territory but there are some concerns about his availability since his knee injury occurred relatively late in the 2018 season. Still, the third-year star has a nose for the endzone and could easily lead a talented Rams’ offense in most receiving categories if he’s fully healthy.
Of the 15 wideouts who toppled the 120-plus target plateau in 2018, none had a lower drop rate than DeAndre Hopkins, who committed only three drops out of 163 targets, a meager 1.8% rate. Hopkins has consistently showcased some of the best hands in football throughout his NFL tenure, including some amazing acrobatic grabs that no other player could make. It’s no surprise at all to see Hopkins also ranks very high in true catch rate and enter 2019 as the odds on favorite to lead the league in 2019.
Davante Adams hauled in 111 of the 119 catchable passes thrown his way. That 87.4% true catch rate ranked 18th overall but was good enough for fourth among all wideouts that exceeded triple-digit targets. Adams did commit eight drops but he’s also accounted for 35 touchdown receptions over the past three seasons. He’s Aaron Rodgers’ most reliable pass catcher and will continue to thrive.
Tyler Boyd caught 3-plus balls in every game en route to a WR15 overall finish in PPR formats. Boyd crushed career-best totals across the board, including an 87.4% true catch rate that placed him fifth among all NFL wide receivers with 100 or more targets. Entering a contract year in a brand new offense, Boyd looks like a good bet to command triple-digit looks again and could see lesser coverage with A.J. Green expected to be fully healthy in time for the opener.
While teammate Adam Thielen gets plenty of headlines himself, Stefon Diggs might be the better pure receiver. Diggs is an elite route-runner and displayed better hands than Thielen, who dropped 3.2% of his 155 targets. Diggs’s 87.2% true catch rate ranked 21st among all NFL wideouts but was sixth for receivers that surpassed 100 targets. Diggs has been getting better and better with each season and is on the verge of his first top-5 finish.
Only Brandin Cooks (2) had fewer drops than DeAndre Hopkins among the league’s top-20 targeted receivers. But unlike Nuk, Cooks isn’t even a sure bet to lead his own receiving corps in looks, as he is more-or-less on equal footing as Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Cooks has always displayed true hands but lacks that elite upside that we like to see in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. He’s about as safe as they come for a WR2, however.
Potential Breakout Targets
Tre’Quan Smith stands out as a real value at his currently deflated ADP. Smith was second on the Saints in snaps and posted a nifty 90.3% true catch rate, which ranked eighth in the NFL. Smith had a pair of 100-yard outings but failed to surpass 50 in any other contest. Maybe it was a lack of rookie repertoire with Drew Brees. That should improve with a full season and second offseason under his belt. If Smith can maintain the starting spot over Ted Ginn, he’s got breakout potential in Year Two.
Speaking of breakouts, Christian Kirk could be on the verge of outstanding production as the potential No. 1 receiver in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense. Kirk has been a standout over the summer following a solid 43/590/3 rookie campaign. Kirk averaged 10.3 PPR points per game, which is awfully impressive for a rookie that was trying to make plays in the league’s worst passing attack. Kirk ranked 10th in football with an 89.6% true catch rate and appears to be on the verge of the potentially huge sophomore season with Kingsbury at the helm.
DaeSean Hamilton missed half of his rookie campaign but started to flash as the season wound down. Overall, Hamilton ranked 33rd with an 85.7% true catch rate, which was third among all qualifying rookies. Beginning in Week 12, Hamilton played 87% of Denver’s snaps and also caught 5-plus receptions in each of the Broncos’ final four games. With Demaryius Thomas in New England and Emmanuel Sanders still recovering from a ruptured Achilles, Hamilton has an excellent chance at opening the season in Denver’s starting lineup and holding onto that gig all season.
Chris Godwin has arguably already broken out after posting WR2 numbers for Tampa Bay last season. Now expected to open the season as the starting slot receiver in Bruce Arians’ potent offense, Godwin is a popular choice to move into the top 20. His ADP has gotten out of hand, but Godwin does have excellent hands and fits the bill as a potential 75-catch, 1,000-yard candidate.
D.J. Moore had only two drops against his 55 rookie receptions. Like all other Carolina receivers, Moore’s production tailed off in the second half after QB Cam Newton injured his shoulder. If Newton is able to rebound, as expected, Moore will enter his second pro season as the undisputed No. 1 wideout in Carolina and easily move up into WR2 territory.
Late-Round Standouts
Taylor Gabriel was a steady, if unspectacular outlet for the Bears last season, dropping just one of his 93 targets and recording 3+ receptions in 16-of-17 games. Gabriel ranked third with a 93.1% true catch rate but failed to surpass double-digit PPR totals in a dozen games. There are also a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago. While Gabriel is a reliable, sure-handed receiver, he’s little more than a WR4/flex option in deeper leagues.
Entering his fourth NFL season, Rashard Higgins has steadily improved annually, culminating in an impressive 92.9% true catch rate in 2018. But Higgins will have a hard time beating out Antonio Callaway for WR3 duties in Cleveland and is unlikely to see enough targets to have much of an impact in 2019. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s WR3 battle in camp because the winner of that battle could see a decent amount of looks behind Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry.
Maurice Harris is an interesting deep sleeper name to monitor this summer. He’s almost entirely unknown but wound up playing 462 snaps for Washington last season, which was second among all Redskins’ wideouts. Harris only ranked 110th with 47 targets but only dropped a pair of passes and ended up seventh in the NFL with a 90.3% true catch rate.
Harris posted the best numbers of his career with Washington in 2018 but wasn’t tendered. Instead, he signed with New England and checks a lot of boxes for successful New England wideouts. Blessed with good size (6-3, 200), trusty hands, and experience as a proven slot receiver, Harris has the chance to make a real impact if he can get quickly acclimated to the Patriot way.
Albert Wilson flashed some big-play ability before injuring his hip and going on IR after seven games. Wilson also displayed a solid pair of hands by snagging 26 of the 27 catchable passes thrown his way and also has a knack for making big plays. When cleared for training camp, Wilson should open as Miami’s starting slot receiver and is an excellent late-round value target in all fantasy leagues.
Continue Reading: True Catch Rate: Which WR’s Have the Best Hands…
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