NFL Pick’em Week 1 : Man vs. Machine

NFL Picks Week One

It’s finally here! Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us! This season, FantasyData is going to be offering a unique twist to your traditional NFL pick’em content. It’s the inevitable battle of man vs. machine. Not just a plotline for all the great (and not so great) Terminator films anymore! We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em.

If you’re unfamiliar with the product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict money line, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. They performed with 54.5% accuracy in 2018 and anticipate that raising to 57% in 2019. Personally, my last season accuracy was 60.5% straight-up and 52.7% against the spread. Statistically, you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. So, this season, it will be that fancy machine vs my own research, opinion, and gut feelings in what should hopefully be a close fight!

Week 1 is one of the toughest to predict in the NFL because it’s anyone’s guess how these teams will actually look and perform this season. Last season, Betting Antelope actually made a terrific call taking the Buccaneers over the Saints in New Orleans at +7. The Bucs won with a final score of 48-40. We have no actual stats from this season to base our opinions, so we have to look at last year’s performance and make an educated guess based on perceived improvement or decline in the team’s overall talent. Let’s get to our Week 1 picks!

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here.

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Panthers were 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs last season — tied for 5th best in NFL; League Avg: .605
• The Panthers are 12-1 (.923) when not throwing an interception since the start of the 2017 season-best in NFL; League Avg: .635
• The Rams were 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season — 5th best in NFL; League Avg: .606
• The Rams were 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .605

The Rams are looking to open the season strong coming off a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots last season. They’ll face a Panthers team in Week 1 that is also looking to start their season off on a positive note after finishing under .500 for the second time in the last three years. The Panthers also missed the playoffs last season for only the second time in the last six years.

Jared Goff just got a hefty contract extension setting an NFL record with $110 million in guarantees and will get his complete set of receivers healthy to start the season. Goff and the Rams offense was particularly better last season with Cooper Kupp on the field. Goff averaged 330 passing yards per game with Kupp healthy compared to only 256 yards per game without Kupp. We will also find out in Week 1 how serious Todd Gurley’s balky knee really is. 

After dealing with a foot injury in the preseason, Cam Newton sounds like he is good to go for Week 1. He also seems to be over the nagging shoulder injury that plagued him last season. The offense will look to run through Christian McCaffrey still no matter what the coaches say about his workload. The team is also looking for breakout performances from its top young wide receivers, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. Newton’s favorite target, Greg Olsen, has also declared himself healthy and will look to bounce back after back-to-back injury-riddled seasons.

The Rams defense was one of a few teams last season that actually allowed fewer PPG to opponents when they were on the road (19.5) compared to at home (27.4) according to TeamRankings.com. The Rams also only covered the spread 50% of the time last season. While I think the Panthers could be better this season compared to last, it feels like it still may take some time for them to find their stride this season while the Rams should open the season strong. I’ll take the Rams here but I don’t see them winning by more than one TD. It should still be enough to cover only a three-point spread though.

My Final Prediction: Rams win 26-20

My Pick: Rams -2.5, Under 50

Machine Pick: Panthers +2.5, Under 50

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• When Derrick Henry has more rushing attempts than his average (12), his team is 11-1 (.917) since the start of the 2017 season — 5th best of 25 Qualified RBs in NFL; League Avg: .696
• The Titans are 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush since the start of the 2017 season — 3rd best in NFL; League Avg: .581
• The Browns are 4-23-1 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .407
• The Browns are winless (0-17) when allowing 22 or more points since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .250

The Browns will carry the momentum of being the talk of the league all offseason into a Week 1 matchup against a Titans team that may not be as easy as most assume. The Browns overall schedule this season will actually make it tough for the team to live up to the lofty expectations set by most. Baker Mayfield is looking to take a second-year leap under head coach Freddie Kitchens with new weapon Odell Beckham Jr. in tow. Beckham rejoins his college teammate and BFF Jarvis Landry is what could be one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

The Titans, on the other hand, are constantly underrated. People talk about this team like they’re… well, the Browns pre-Baker, but the Titans have finished 9-7 in each of the last three seasons. They missed a playoff berth by just one game last season in coach Mike Vrabel’s first year. They were led by their strong defense last season who allowed the third-fewest PPG to opposing offenses last season. On the offensive side of the ball, they are hoping to get more consistency out of their QB position whether it be from Marcus Mariota or newly-acquired Ryan Tannehill. They are also hoping to get the unstoppable late-season, hulk-like version of Derrick Henry in the backfield as opposed to the Bruce Banner version that struggled early to top three yards per carry and didn’t score a single TD in the first six games.

I’m buying most of the hype revolving around the Browns this season, but I won’t underestimate the Titans defense that’s returning nine of its 11 starters from last season. The Browns could also be looking for a little revenge after a Titans win last season is what eliminated them from playoff contention. I’ll take the Browns, but I wouldn’t bank on them covering the spread and I see the Titans as the best bet to upset in Week 1.

My Final Prediction: Browns win 20-17

My Pick: Titans +5.5, Under 45.5 

Machine Pick: Titans +5.5, Under 45.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Jaguars are 1-11 (.083) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the start of the 2017 season — 4th worst in NFL; League Avg: .251
• The Jaguars are winless (0-13) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the start of the 2017 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .168
• The Chiefs are winless (0-4) when scoring less than 22 points since the start of the 2017 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .228
• The Chiefs were 9-1 (.900) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — 5th best in NFL; League Avg: .664

Welcome to the Nick Foles era, Jacksonville Jaguars fans! Saint Nick will look to make good on his nickname by gracing the Jags with a huge upset by defeating last seasons highest-scoring offense, the Kansas City Chiefs.

We have seen Foles be both red hot and ice cold over his career depending on the system he was in, so it will be interesting to see how he does here. The Jags boast an underrated wide receiver corps led by Dede Westbrook. They will also look to lean on Leonard Fournette whose combination of injuries and antics have kept him from paying off on his first-round draft price from 2017. Foles has a big enough arm to try and keep pace with Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Speaking of those Chiefs, after dominating all of last year, they will look to get back on track after a devastating playoff loss that ended in overtime. After some rocky offseason moments with top wideout Tyreek Hill’s availability in question, the team is returning both Hill and Kelce this season along with a stable of running backs that may see some shifting. Damien Williams is the incumbent and expected to start in Week 1, but Andy Reid also recently reunited with LeSean McCoy who could pose a threat eventually. There is also a promising rookie prospect in the backfield in the sixth-round rookie draft pick, Darwin Thompson.

The Chiefs defense is still suspect and the losses of both Justin Houston and Dee Ford don’t help things much. But the Chiefs offense is just too strong to be stopped by a Jags team who will likely need a few weeks to really gel in the regular season. The Chiefs incredible 38.2 PPG away last season indicates they should have no problem knocking off a Jags team who missed practice time leading up to Week 1 due to Hurricane Dorian. I think the Chiefs walk away with a win, as they did last season in this matchup, but the Jags should put up a decent fight.

My Final Prediction: Chiefs win 34-28

My Pick: Chiefs -3.5, Over 52

Machine Pick: Chiefs -3.5, Under 52

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Dolphins were 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red-zone chances into touchdowns last season — tied for 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .411
• The Dolphins are 8-3 (.727) when within 7 points at the two-minute warning since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .496
• The Ravens are 17-1 (.944) when leading at the end of the first half since the start of the 2017 season — 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .808
• The Ravens are winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the start of the 2017 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .146

This is probably my lock of the week right here. A Ravens team on the rise going up against a Dolphins team clearly dedicated to a rebuild should not make for a pretty outcome for Miami fans. The Ravens defense should impose their will no problem on the turnover-prone bearded-one they call Ryan Fitzpatrick. Josh Rosen probably wouldn’t have much success in this matchup either, so it really doesn’t matter who the ‘Phins throw out there. The Ravens defense allowed the second-fewest points to opponents last season while the Dolphins offense were in the bottom eight in points scored. Completely new look for the Dolphins all around this season, but it’s hard to see them looking significantly better.

There isn’t really much more to this one than that. The Ravens are gonna run it, and run it, and run it, and there’s not much the Dolphins can do to stop it. My prediction for the Ravens scoring only 26 points would actually be a relief from the 40-0 bashing they gave the Dolphins the last time these teams met.

My Final Prediction: Ravens win 26-6

My Pick: Ravens -7, Under 37.5

Machine Pick: Ravens -7, Under 37.5

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Falcons are 1-13 (.071) when scoring less than 22 points since the start of the 2017 season — 5th worst in NFL; League Avg: .228
• The Falcons are 16-2 (.889) when scoring 22 or more points since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .747
• The Vikings are 17-1 (.944) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the start of the 2017 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .660
• The Vikings were 1-7 (.125) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — 3rd worst in NFL; League Avg: .329

This is one of the tougher games to call this week which makes it a little surprising that they’re giving more than a three-point spread. I actually instinctively wanted to lean towards the Falcons on this one, but once the tea leaves all fell out there was a little more to the story.

The Vikings were a heavy favorite for Super Bowl contention this time last season but instead went on to miss the playoffs entirely. The team’s defense remained a top-10 unit last season while the offense regressed after being top-10 in 2017 to finishing closer to 20th ranked in Kirk Cousins’ first season. Hopefully, a fully-healthy Dalvin Cook will help ease the offense’s woes. When it comes to facing the Falcons in particular, however, the Vikes defense hasn’t allowed them to score more than 10 points in either of their last two matchups.

The Falcons offense was strong last season, but more so at home compared to away. The team averaged 29.5 PPG at home last season compared to only 22.2 away. At least they do get the confines of a dome, though. The Falcons have been fortunate to not have to deal with a hold out while they negotiate a new deal with their star wideout Julio Jones, though his status has taken a quirky turn as we get closer to game time. Should he miss the game for any reason, that could impact a change in my bet. They will also get Devonta Freeman back healthy and on the field, rounding out their offense. 

Both teams having a healthy backfield coming into this one could actually push the score up a little higher but given the lower-scoring nature of their recent matchups and the under hitting more often in Minnesota, I am keeping a prediction modest. I like the Vikes to win it at home, but it should be a very close game.

My Final Prediction: Vikings win 23-21

My Pick: Falcons +4, Under 48

Machine Pick: Falcons +4, Over 48

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Bills are 1-12 (.077) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .292
• The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when leading at the end of the first half since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 5th best in NFL; League Avg: .808
• The Jets are 1-15 (.062) when trailing at the end of the first half since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 4th worst in NFL; League Avg: .188
• The Jets are 5-21 (.192) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .468

There are three teams in the NFL representing the fine state of New York. Not one is good at football. Isn’t that something? This week, we get two teams who finished on the wrong side of .500 last season in the Bills at Jets. These teams split their head-to-head series last season with the Bills coming ahead big on the road with a 41-10 pummeling. 

The Jets welcomed in Adam Gase as their new head coach this season in hopes that he could turn things around. That wasn’t before they inked new workhorse RB Le’Veon Bell to a big deal, however. The receiver corps didn’t really receive much of an upgrade for QB Sam Darnold to take advantage of. The team will need him to take a big second-year leap to improve on their 4-12 record last season.

The Bills have another second-year QB they are hoping makes huge improvements, especially in passing efficiency. They brought in a lot of new players, but I wouldn’t consider many of them talented. The silver lining for the Bills last season was a defense that allowed the second-fewest yards all season and improved as the season went on, only allowing an average of 18 PPG over their last three contests.

The Jets allowed a league-worst 31 PPG at home to opponents last season which includes the 41 points they allowed the Bills themselves. Adam Gase was also guilty of running one of the slowest, low-scoring offenses in the league last season. I just don’t really see the Jets having the talent to make a big jump this season, and furthermore, their performance at home last season is worrisome. I’m going to go out on a limb on this one and take the Bills by less than one score.

My Final Prediction: Bills win 24-18

My Pick: Bills +3, Over 40.5

Machine Pick: Bills +3, Over 40.5

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-10)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Eagles are 12-1 (.923) when allowing an average of fewer than 5 yards on first down plays since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .541
• The Eagles are 19-2 (.905) when scoring 22 or more points since the start of the 2017 season — 3rd best in NFL; League Avg: .747
• The Redskins are 1-15 (.062) when trailing at the end of the first half since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 4th worst in NFL; League Avg: .188

Another game that could be considered a lock for Week 1 is the Eagles hosting the Redskins. The Eagles have blown out their division foe in each of their last four matchups and there really isn’t much reason to think it should be different this time around. 

The Eagles are getting a healthy Carson Wentz back on the field and hopefully at his MVP caliber standard of performance. They welcomed back prodigal son, DeSean Jackson to operate as their deep threat and are absolutely loaded on offense at all positions. This team quite possibly has the deepest pool of talent when looking at their depth at WR, RB, and TE. The Eagles defense should remain above average led by Fletcher Cox and a strong duo of safeties featuring Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod.

The Redskins are looking to start career journeyman Case Keenum under center this season while rookie prospect Dwayne Haskins takes time to develop and Alex Smith waits for his leg to grow back. The ‘Skins are hoping to finally get a real look at RB Derrius Guice this season after he missed all of last season and parts of this offseason nursing injuries. There are no WRs on this team worth speaking of, and the team’s best pass-catcher, Jordan Reed, suffered his ump-teenth concussion in the preseason. This team will rely on the spry legs of Guice and the ageless Adrian Peterson to carry the offense. That won’t be easy though against a stout Eagles run defense.

This one is the Eagles by a mile.

My Final Prediction: Eagles win 27-16

My Pick: Eagles -10, Under 45.5

Machine Pick: Eagles -10, Over 45.5

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Colts were 9-3 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .525
• The Colts are 1-6 (.143) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 5th worst in NFL; League Avg: .274
• The Chargers were undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .775
• The Chargers are 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards since the start of the 2017 season — 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .700

This would have been a marquee matchup of Week 1 before Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement. Now we get what looks like a handout for the Chargers to open the season. While many seem to be high on Jacoby Brissett and think that he can hold his own as more than just a backup QB in this league, I am not completely sold yet.

The Colts only averaged 16.4 PPG when they had Brissett under center in 2017. Sure, he was dropped into the season a little cold, but those aren’t encouraging numbers. Also, if Andrew Luck could only manage to average 22.8 PPG when away last season with a similar talent group that Brissett will be working with this season, it is hard to see Brissett managing to crack the 20 PPG mark with ease. Especially against a Chargers team that many have pegged as a Super Bowl contender this season with a defense that ranked top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed last season.

The Chargers may be without RB Melvin Gordon in Week 1, but the combination of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson should prove capable of carrying the load, especially against a Colts defense that ranked top 10 in both rushing yards and TDs allowed last season. Philip Rivers should also get more production in the end zone out of his receiving options with the return of tight end Hunter Henry. The Colts aren’t bad on offense, but I also just don’t see them being that great with Brissett. I think the Chargers handle business fairly easily in this one but the Colts likely won’t completely lay down and die, making a seven-point spread a little rich for me.

My Final Prediction: Chargers win 23-18

My Pick: Colts +6.5, Under 44.5

Machine Pick: Chargers -6.5, Under 44.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Seahawks were undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .775
• The Seahawks are 11-5 (.688) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .503
• The Bengals were undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .726
• The Bengals were 2-9 (.182) when not forcing a fumble last season — tied for 4th worst in NFL; League Avg: .402

This game could be considered a third lock of the week. Traveling to CenturyLink Field isn’t an easy task for any team, but especially a team who is missing their top wideout and adjusting to a completely new coaching regime. What was already a solid defense for the Seahawks just got stronger with the acquisition of Jadeveon Clowney. This doesn’t bode well for a Bengals offense that was already middle of the pack at best. Not only should the Bengals offense struggle but their defense also ranked third in most opponent points allowed last season. 

Seattle, like Baltimore, is going to just run it all day. Their lack of depth at WR shouldn’t matter much in this one going against what was a league-worst passing defense just last season. The Seahawks covered the spread 66.7% of the time last season which was second-best behind only Chicago (70.6%). I think they do so with ease this week.

My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 28-10

My Pick: Seahawks -8.5, Under 43.5

Machine Pick: Seahawks -8.5, Over 43.5

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .267
• The Lions are 1-8 (.111) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the start of the 2017 season — 4th worst in NFL; League Avg: .292
• The Lions are 9-1 (.900) when average starting field position is better than their own 30 since the start of the 2017 season — 5th best in NFL; League Avg: .736

This is another matchup that’s tougher to predict. Both teams have a lot of question marks regarding their identity and both teams are looking to bounce back after sub-.500 seasons last year. This game actually opened with the Cardinals being the favorite but has since shifted to the Lions on the road.

The Lions are looking for second-year head coach Matt Patricia to step up his game this season, and he plans on doing that by converting what was one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses into a run-first offense. Patricia brought in new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and hopes that he can get the most out of second-year RB Kerryon Johnson. The team also brought in veteran C.J. Anderson as a potential short-yardage back and released veteran Theo Riddick and replaced him with fresh blood in selecting speedster Ty Johnson in the sixth round of this season’s rookie draft. On the pass-catching side, the team spent their eighth overall pick in the draft on former Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson, addressing a glaring whole on offense from last season. Both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay return as the team’s primary perimeter receivers and veteran Danny Amendola will likely operate out of the slot where Golden Tate used to crush. The Lions run-heavy approach could have a lot of success against a Cardinals team that had the league’s worst run defense just a season ago.

The Cardinals are coming into this game led by a lot of inexperienced talent in both Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They have some veterans peppered in to help offset that with future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson both returning on offense. The team also recently added Michael Crabtree to a receiver corps loaded with young depth. The biggest problem heading into this game for the Cardinals is their defense. They’ll be without their top-two corners Patrick Peterson (suspended) and Robert Alford (injured). This isn’t a great start for a team that ranked top eight in most opponent points allowed last season.

The Cardinals offensive concept is meant to be fast and aggressive, but we didn’t really see that come to fruition yet in the preseason. It may take time for the young leaders on this squad to find their footing, which makes me lean towards the Lions for the victory here despite being on the road. 

My Final Prediction: Lions win 24-20

My Pick: Lions -2.5, Under 47

Machine Pick: Under 47

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Cowboys are 17-3 (.850) when not throwing an interception since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .635
• The Cowboys were undefeated (8-0) when scoring 22 or more points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .726
• The Giants are winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .251

What has historically been a hard-fought divisional matchup has the looks of more of a lopsided affair in Week 1. The Giants will travel to Jerry World where the Dallas Cowboys will be at full strength with the recent blockbuster deal struck with the former holdout, Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke is now the highest-paid running back of all time, surpassing even Todd Gurley.

The Cowboys look as good as they ever have now with Amari Cooper given a full offseason to adjust to his new offense and even bringing back trusty veteran Jason Witten as a security blanket for Dak Prescott could be seen as a boost. At the very least, Witten being back on the field and out of the booth is a boost for listeners. Top off the Cowboys receiving corps with former Packers wideout Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup who came on strong at the end of last season and is expected to make a second-year leap, and you have the best set of receivers Prescott has ever had at his disposal. 

On the other side of the ball, the Giants are in this weird in-between phase at quarterback where the incumbent veteran Eli Manning is looking to fend off first-round draft pick Daniel Jones. The way the Giants have handled business this offseason has a lot of people down on them, especially when it comes to how they have handled the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. The receiver corps for Week 1 will comprise of Sterling Shepard and a whole bunch of nobodies as Golden Tate serves a suspension. Tight end Evan Engram is probably the biggest threat out of all receiving options right now. The offense will likely run through Saquon Barkley, who is looking to carry a heavy load and build off his impressive rookie season. The Cowboys do boast a strong run defense and held Barkley to only 28 yards on 11 carries in Week 2 last season. Fortunately for the Giants, Barkley is a huge threat in the passing game as well and he lit up the ‘Boys with 14 receptions for 80 yards in the same matchup. Barkley also got the best of the Cowboys on the ground eventually last season running for 109 yards and one TD in the last game of the season.

While the last matchup between these teams was decided by only one point, I don’t really expect this one to be that close. The Cowboys have gotten the best of the Giants in each of their last four matchups. I like the Cowboys to cover in this one, kicking off what should be another run for a postseason appearance on the right foot while questions will quickly arise for the Giants regarding when it’s time to bench Manning in favor of Jones.

My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 26-13

My Pick: Cowboys -7.5, Under 45.5

Machine Pick: Cowboys -7.5, Under 45.5

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The 49ers are 1-20 (.048) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the start of the 2016 season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .297
• The 49ers were 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .504
• The Buccaneers are 1-20 (.048) when allowing 27 or more points since the start of the 2016 season — 5th worst in NFL; League Avg: .189
• The Buccaneers are 1-20 (.048) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the start of the 2017 season — 3rd worst in NFL; League Avg: .188

This game has been one of the toughest to predict and break down all week. Vegas seems to be having similar problems as the favorite has swung from the Bucs to the 49ers and now back to the Bucs since it opened. What is interesting about that is how far apart the scores have been in each of the last five matchups involving these teams. There is a history of blowouts here, it’s just a matter of figuring out which way it will go.

The 49ers are coming into the game healthier than they have been in a while with Jimmy Garoppolo ready to attempt playing the first full season of his career. It’s crazy to think he has been in the league for five seasons and we still aren’t really confident about whether or not he’s a very good quarterback. The 49ers are loaded with a lot of unproven talent for the most part at receiver, with tight end George Kittle likely leading the team in most receiving categories once again. At RB, coach Kyle Shanahan brought in Tevin Coleman whom he had worked with during his time in Atlanta to work alongside 2018 breakout Matt Breida. 

Hopes are pretty high coming into this season in Tampa Bay. The team brought in former Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians to bring some much-needed discipline to a team that has shown promise on the offensive side of the ball but constantly finds themselves coming up short. It’s a do or die season for QB Jameis Winston and the defense will need to perform better as well to help keep this team in games. The Bucs allowed second-most points to opponents last season. Only the Raiders were worse and just barely by less than one point per game difference.

I too have leaned both ways in who to pick in this matchup. At the end of the day, I decided to play it safe and go with the home team in the Bucs. The 49ers allowed the second-most passing TDs last season and had the lowest turnover percentage in the league which is really where Jameis Winston has faltered in his career. If the 49ers defense can’t force turnovers here, the Bucs will likely rack up points through the air. 

My Final Prediction: Bucs win 31-24

My Pick: Bucs -1, Over 50.5

Machine Pick: Over 50.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Steelers are 21-5-1 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the start of the 2016 season — 4th best in NFL; League Avg: .626
• The Steelers are undefeated (18-0-1) when allowing less than 22 points since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .768
• The Patriots are 30-2 (.938) when allowing less than 22 points since the start of the 2016 season-best in NFL; League Avg: .767
• The Patriots are undefeated (16-0) when having the lead at the end of quarter 1 since the start of the 2017 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .749

This should be one of the marquee matchups of Week 1. Both teams were top five in PPG last season and have been offensive juggernauts for over a decade. While both teams are still led by veterans who have been the face of the franchise for years, there have been some significant movements on both sides of the ball.

The Patriots are coming off another Super Bowl victory with Tom Brady entering his 20th season. The team did lose tight end Rob Gronkowski (for now?) to retirement and didn’t really do much to replace him. The Pats have been satisfied evolving with Brady’s age and turning into more of a ground and pound offense. They still have Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman as their primary receiving threat and have Josh Gordon coming off his most recent issue active for now. The running game should also be plenty strong with Sony Michel looking to play a full 16 games this season, receiving maven James White is still there, and rookie Damien Harris should mix in as well. 

The best way to beat the Pats last season was through the air, which sets up a decent opportunity for Ben Roethlisberger who led the league last season in passing attempts, completions, and yards. Big Ben will have to look for JuJu Smith-Schuster more this season with Antonio Brown now causing havoc in Oakland. The running game for the Steelers will again feature James Conner this season with Le’Veon Bell now a member of the Jets. 

It’s really hard to bet against the Pats at home, especially against a QB who has notoriously struggled on the road in his career. I’m taking the Pats here and I will even peg them to cover the spread as they did 63.2% of the time last season which was third-best in the league.

My Final Prediction: Patriots win 28-22

My Pick: Patriots -5.5, Over 49.5

Machine Pick: Patriots -5.5, Under 49.5

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Saints are 18-1 (.947) when leading at the end of the first half since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .808
• The Saints are 16-1 (.941) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards since the start of the 2017 season — tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: .700
• The Texans are undefeated (13-0) when leading at the of the third quarter since the start of the 2017 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .849
• The Texans are 1-8 (.111) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .334

The first and really only exciting part of a Monday Night Football double-header this week will see the Saints host the Texans. These teams have surprisingly only played each other four times in regular-season action with the series split and the home team always getting the win.

The Saints are looking to shake off those painful memories of the past when they were upset by the Buccaneers in Week 1 last season. They’re also looking to shake off the devastating way their season ended last year as well. The Saints welcome back most of their key components back on offense with the exception of losing long-time RB Mark Ingram. They recovered from that loss well by bringing in Latavius Murray who offers a similar skillset as Ingram and will be a nice complement to Alvin Kamara. The Saints were one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL last season, but unfortunately, on the defensive side, they also allowed significantly more points to opponents at home (24.5) vs away (18.5). This could be an issue considering the Texans are one of the few teams who scored more points away than at home last season.

The Texans were one of the most active teams in the last couple of weeks when it came to trades and roster moves. They lost Lamar Miller at RB but have solutions in former Browns RB Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde. They also made a move to bring in offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and WR Kenny Stills from the Dolphins. Deshaun Watson gets better protection and better insurance in case the often-injured Will Fuller can’t make it through the full season. Speaking of injured WRs, Keke Coutee is dealing with a sprained ankle he suffered during the preseason but could be ready to roll by Monday night. All that really matters is that DeAndre Hopkins is healthy and on the field.

This game could be a shoot out and my prediction for a final score may be a little low, but I don’t really like going all-in on many offenses in Week 1. I’ll give the edge here to the home team once again with the Saints, but I don’t see them covering a seven-point spread.

My Final Prediction: Saints win 27-23

My Pick: Texans +7, Under 53.5

Machine Pick: Saints Push, Over 53.5

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders

Interesting Matchup Notes

• The Broncos are 1-11 (.083) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336
• The Broncos are winless (0-11) when allowing 27 or more points since the start of the 2017 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .194
• The Raiders are 1-20 (.048) when scoring less than 22 points since the start of the 2017 season — 3rd worst in NFL; League Avg: .228
• The Raiders are 5-20 (.200) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the start of the 2017 season — 3rd worst in NFL; League Avg: .407

Kind of a sad way to put a bow on the season opener, but the Raiders will host the Broncos to cap off Week 1 live from second base at the Oakland Coliseum. If you want to watch some quality ball being played in Oakland right now, turn your attention to the A’s, my friends.

The Raiders are coming into this game with more media hype than performance hype as Antonio Brown’s constant drama has completely cast a shadow over the team. It has distracted a bit from the fact that there is actually a promising rookie about to take ahold of this backfield in Josh Jacobs. It’s also helped distract from the fact that Derek Carr needs to get back to the form that earned him a fat contract a few years back. There is potential for that to happen this season if AB can get his act together. Something working in the Raiders favor in this from looking at last season’s numbers was the huge home/away splits. They scored a measly 12.7 PPG away versus 25.1 PPG at home. Their defense, however, was a liability everywhere they went and actually allowed slightly more points at home (30.3) than away (28.3). 

The Broncos are in a bit of a transitional phase right now with Joe Flacco brought in as a bridge QB but the potential future of the franchise, Drew Lock, sprained his thumb and was sent to IR. This leaves Flacco as the only real option to work with a primarily young core of pass catchers with Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton coming into their second year. Rookie tight end Noah Fant could wind up a quick favorite target of Flacco’s and there is also Emmanuel Sanders available who looks to have bounced back quick from a torn Achilles injury. Flacco has had success against the Raiders in the past with the Ravens and will look to carry that momentum into Monday night’s showdown.

With the news of Antonio Brown likely being suspended for Week 1 due to personal conduct reasons, I have a hard time buying the Raiders offense in this game despite the fact that they’re at home. If AB plays, it might swing it for me a little, but this was a close one to call and there surprisingly seems to be more security on the Broncos side of the ball with a solid, established running game. 

My Final Prediction: Broncos win 21-17

My Pick: Broncos -2.5, Under 43

Machine Pick: Push, Under 43

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