Hitters & Streamers
Seven games at home for the Rockies! We know what that means. They play the Padres (3) and Reds (4), and the Week 7 hitter streamers will include hitters in those matchups. Particularly, Raimel Tapia – he’s ready to eat. Most teams play six or seven games this week with only three teams playing five games. One of the surprise teams creeping into the top-5 in team wOBA includes the Arizona Diamondbacks, partly fueled by Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas, Asdrubal Cabrera, and David Peralta. We’ll discuss Smith and Rojas as a couple of Week 7 hitter streamers amongst several other ones to consider. As always, we’ll review last week’s recommendations, the easier/tougher Week 7 hitter matchups, and recommend some hitters for the following week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter for any questions.
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Week 6 Streamer Hitter Review
- Alex Kirilloff – Win (.375 BA, 4 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI)
- Luis Arráez – Win (.333 BA, 0 HR, 5 R, 2 RBI)
- Sam Haggerty – Loss (.118 BA, 0 HR, 3 R, 2 SB)
- Tyrone Taylor – Loss (.154 BA, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI)
- Billy McKinney – Loss (.231 BA, 2 R)
- Josh Harrison – Win (.353 BA, 2 R, 1 RBI)
- Ryan Zimmerman – Loss (.125 BA, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI)
- Jordan Luplow – Loss (0 HR, .000 BA, 12 PA)
- Early Rockies/Giants Hitters
Unfortunately, Alex Kirilloff landed on the injured list with a wrist injury, so the production ended early after he turned it on. For several others, this is the risk of looking at a seven-day profile with so many ups and downs in fantasy baseball. Raimel Tapia had a .393 BA, but Yonathan Daza struggled with a .211 BA. Brandon Belt keeps producing well with two home runs, three runs, and seven RBI. However, Wilmer Flores struggled a bit in the batting average department – .167 BA, 1 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.
Easier Week 7 Hitter Matchups
- Boston Red Sox – 1 at BAL, 3 vs. OAK, 3 vs. LAA
- Colorado Rockies – 3 vs. SD, 4 vs. CIN
- Cincinnati Reds – 3 at PIT, 4 at COL
- Houston Astros – 3 vs. LAA, 4 vs. TEX
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 4 vs. MIA, 3 vs. WSH
Even without Ketel Marte and Kole Calhoun for injury spurts during the season, the Diamondbacks sneakily have one of the better offenses. They rank 5th with a .325 team wOBA on the season and the team ranks 7th with a .321 wOBA over the past 14 days. Mostly due to David Peralta, Josh Rojas, Pavin Smith, Carson Kelly, and Asdrubal Cabrera, all of which provided production in the past two weeks.
The Red Sox have also sneakily hit well with a .329 team wOBA (No. 3) behind the Reds and Dodgers. For the Rockies, it’s self-explanatory given their hitter-friendly environment. Many fantasy managers already plan on starting the main Reds and Astros hitters. For the Reds, it’s the partial Coors Field matchup. With the Astros, they face a Rangers pitching staff that isn’t great either with a .328 wOBA allowed, which ranks in the bottom-6 in the league.
Honorable Mention:
- Miami Marlins – 4 at ARI, 3 at LAD
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 3 vs. CIN, 4 vs. SF
Although the Marlins and Pirates play seven games, they rank near the bottom of the league with a .291 team wOBA (No. 27) for the Marlins and .291 wOBA (No. 26) for the Pirates. Over the past 14 days, they’ve performed about the same with a .298 wOBA (No. 24) for the Marlins and a .291 wOBA (No. 27) for the Pirates.
Tougher Week 7 Hitter Matchups
- Chicago Cubs – 2 at CLE, 3 at DET
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2 vs. SEA, 3 vs. MIA
- New York Mets – 2 vs. BAL, 3 at TB
- Seattle Mariners – 2 at LAD, 4 vs. CLE
We have three teams with five games – the Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets. Although the Mariners play six games, they have a .283 wOBA (No. 29) over the past 14 days. Meanwhile, the Mariners face the Dodgers who allow a .273 wOBA (No. 2) and Cleveland with a .299 wOBA (No. 11). So they’re struggling to hit and facing tough pitchers. That’s not a good combination.
Week 7 Hitter Streamers
Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
My growing love for Pavin Smith continues as he led off or batted second for 14 games in a row before Wednesday, where he batted fifth. During that stretch (April 18 – May 4), Smith hit .270 with two home runs, nine runs, six RBI, and one steal. He’s making an elite level of zone contact with a 94.7% Z-Contact% that ranks 7th amongst qualified hitters tied with Alex Verdugo. Even Smith’s overall contact rate ranks highly at 83.9% (No. 23) right in front of Mookie Betts. A little over a week ago, I began digging into Smith and liking what I found.
It’s odd how excited I got adding Pavin Smith.
-93.8% Z-Contact%, 83.2% Contact%
-11.5% Barrel%, 57.7% hard-hit rate 🔥
-97.2 mph EV on LD/FB (No. 21) min. 50 BBE
-Led off in six straight games pic.twitter.com/qyTMfIFXmY— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 27, 2021
Although Pavin Smith’s 54.3% ground ball rate is a bit concerning, he hits the ball relatively hard, especially on FB/LD. In 86 batted ball events, Smith has an 8.6% barrel rate, 110.8 mph maximum exit velocity, and 51.9% hard-hit rate. Smith ranks 42nd with a 95 mph exit velocity on FB/LD behind J.D. Martinez. The Diamondbacks play seven games this week with four against the Marlins and three against the Nationals. They have a few tough matchups in Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Max Scherzer. Overall, it’s a middle-of-the-road matchup, but Smith will receive regular opportunities with the bonus of a high contact rate and above-average exit velocity on FB/LD.
Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
For batting average and some steals, Raimel Tapia is your guy. Through 118 plate appearances, Tapia has four home runs, 13 runs, 19 RBI, and three steals with a .312 batting average. The power isn’t a category to rely on with Tapia, but he’s sneakily produced as a quality outfielder. Similar to Pavin Smith, Tapia uses a high contact approach though he doesn’t have the same power as Smith. Tapia boasts a 92.4% Z-Contact% and 86.4% Contact%, both of which rank as career bests so far in 2021. With a full slate of seven games at home in Coors Field, add and stream Tapia in 10-12 team leagues as a fifth outfielder.
Josh Rojas, 2B/SS/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
With NBA Jam rules, Josh Rojas is heating up with four of his five total home runs in a five-game stretch. During that timeframe, Rojas has a .421 batting average with four home runs, seven runs, and six RBI in 20 plate appearances. Rojas is a bit of a deep league hitter streamer since he projects to platoon with Tim Locastro now off of the injured list. However, given his positional flexibility, Rojas could play five or six out of the team’s seven games next week.
As a lefty, Rojas could hold down a strong side platoon since he projects to face six right-handed starters. Monitor the playing time for Rojas over the weekend, but the schedule looks like he should earn playing time assuming he keeps producing. We also admire his 10.4% barrel rate and 47.9% hard-hit rate both of which rank in the top 25% of the league.
Tyler Naquin, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Similar to Josh Rojas, Tyler Naquin is a lefty hitter that projects to platoon and faces six right-handed starters with the only southpaw as Kyle Freeland. Especially from Thursday to Sunday next week (May 13 – May 16), you’ll want to plug in your Reds and Rockies hitters since they play a four-game series at Coors Field. Earlier in the season, Naquin hit a hot stretch where he hit five home runs in a five-game stretch. However, Naquin’s season-long stat line looks solid with six home runs, 11 runs, 19 RBI, and two steals with a .260 batting average.
Based on his Statcast data, Tyler Naquin is also destroying baseballs with a 15.8% barrel rate, 113.5 mph maximum exit velocity, and 53.6% hard-hit rate. Both the barrel rate and hard-hit rate ranks as career bests. Meanwhile, Naquin’s maximum exit velocity ranks just behind his 2019 season where he finished with a 114.4 mph max exit velocity. With Joey Votto hitting the injured list for about a month, it could open up playing time for Naquin.
Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Once an exciting young prospect, Austin Hays battled injuries in the past few seasons including ankle, concussion, and rib-related issues. With Hays heating up and earning playing time, he hit four home runs in the past 14 days. However, we’ll note he could provide power yet hurt your batting average evidenced by his .232 batting. Amongst Orioles hitters, only Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, and Maikel Franco have over 50 plate appearances during that stretch outside of Hays. Sure the matchups aren’t great with five games against the Mets and Yankees who rank 1st and 3rd in wOBA allowed but consider streaming Hays in Week 7 since he bats towards the top of the lineup and accumulates plate appearances.
Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers
When looking at the prospect profile for Adolis García, it looks wild. A 30-35 grade hit tool with above-average power, plus speed, and an above-average fielder that rocks a 70-grade arm. We observed a bit of that in the minor leagues with his .253 batting average and 30.1% strikeout rate in 2019 at Triple-A though it came with 32 home runs and 14 steals. Say what?!
We’re noticing similar strikeout and walk rates in 2021 with a 32.3% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. However, Adolis García keeps piling on the home runs and counting stats with seven homers, 13 runs, 19 RBI, and one steal with a .258 batting average. The power is showing up with his 19.6% barrel rate, 109.5 mph maximum exit velocity, and 48.2% hard-hit rate across 56 batted ball events. García typically bats in the heart of the lineup for the Rangers, meaning that’s a prime spot for RBI opportunities. The matchups project as tougher matchups since they face the Giants and Astros, who both rank in the top seven in wOBA allowed. However, we’re recommending García here since it looks like he’s heating up a bit in recent games.
Leury García, SS/OF, Chicago White Sox
Unfortunately, the White Sox lost Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert to begin the 2021 season. Ouch! Once a World Series favorite, the White Sox lost two of their best hitters and top outfielders, which now leaves them with Adam Eaton, Leury García, and Andrew Vaughn. We know Vaughn’s a good hitter and Eaton provides a stable profile. However, Leury García seems like the everyday replacement for Robert yet bats towards the bottom of their lineup. García isn’t that exciting, but he’ll receive playing time by default.
Leury García should fall into the definition of “slap hitter.” García hits a ton of ground balls with a 60.4% ground ball rate in 2021 not far off from his career 54.3% ground ball rate. He makes league-average contact evidenced by his 83.3% Z-Contact% and 77.3% Contact% that both rate near the league average. We’re not relying on García for power, so he doesn’t light up the Baseball Savant data with a 4% barrel rate and 26% hard-hit rate. If you need an active outfielder with positional flexibility, then prioritize García in FAAB. In Week 7, it’s more about volume and plate appearances since they play seven games, which includes a couple of seven-inning doubleheaders against the Royals. Therefore, he’s a deep-league hitter streamer.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Miami Marlins
In deep leagues, Corey Dickerson isn’t available to stream. However, in 10-12 team leagues, he’s someone to consider picking up and streaming with the potential for sticking on your roster given his hot start. Over the past 14 days, Dickerson has a .370 batting average, one home run, seven runs, and four RBI with a 208 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances. Even his season-long batting average of .326 looks inflated by his .397 BABIP compared to a career .330 BABIP, but ride the wave while it’s hot.
What changed for Dickerson so far? His line-drive rate of 26.1% jumped back up near his norms of 2018 and 2019 (25-27%) after it dipped to 13.8% in 2020. We notice his LD% relates to his wOBA throughout his career, which tells us hitting line drives may help his success. Meanwhile, Dickerson is using a pull-heavy approach (46.4%) compared to his career 33.2% pull rate. Nothing too different in terms of his plate discipline other than a lowered first-pitch strike rate by just under 9% in this career. Even Dickerson’s O-Contact% increased over 3% above his career average in 2021. That could indicate a slightly more aggressive approach although his swing rates remain about the same. However, Dickerson also boasts a career-high 10.1% walk rate and .414 OBP, which helps the profile.
In a year of higher exit velocities and hard-hit rates, Corey Dickerson has a career-worst 2.9% barrel rate. However, he never lit up the hard-hit data with a career 34.2% hard-hit rate compared to his current hard-hit rate of 29.4%. Overall, it appears Dickerson is focusing on putting the ball into play, which increases the intrigue as he ranks 16th in BA and 35th with a .374 wOBA amongst qualified hitters.
Now, do we understand why I’m digging Dickerson heading into next week? The Marlins play seven games with four against the Diamondbacks that rank bottom four in team wOBA allowed behind the Tigers. However, they play the Dodgers for three games, also known as one of the toughest matchups in baseball. He’s an underrated hitter that’s currently producing, which could help fantasy managers in 10-12 team leagues.
