WM Phoenix Open 2022 – DFS Golf Picks
Harness the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the WM Phoenix Open, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The WM Phoenix Open
Recap from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Tom Hoge had been buzzing around the top of the leaderboard over his four previous starts prior to last week, and he broke through for his first PGA Tour win at Pebble Beach thanks to solid play throughout his bag – big congrats to him!
Preview for the WM Phoenix Open: This event began back in 1932 as the Arizona Open, but since 2010 it has been known as the Waste Management Phoenix Open until this year it’s simply the WM Phoenix Open. Since 1987, the tournament has been held at TPC Scottsdale and we will again see the same Stadium Course used this year, as well. The record at this event happened 9 years ago when Phil Mickelson shot a -28 but he wasn’t the first player to go that low as Mark Calcavecchia put up that same number in 2001. Winners of the Phoenix Open over the last five years include Brooks Koepka in 2021, Webb Simpson in 2020, Rickie Fowler in 2019, Gary Woodland in 2018, and Hideki Matsuyama in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $8.2M, the winner collects $1.476M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, the greens are Bermudagrass and average over 7,000 square feet. The winning score here over the past decade ranges from -14 to -28, so weather can play a huge role at this venue. Some core key stats to put into your custom models this week, in order, include strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: around the green, and driving distance.
The field: We will see 132 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties will advance to weekend play after round 2 on Friday. We will see some elite players this week including world #1, Jon Rahm, defending champ, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, and lots of other talented golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B+.
Three questions I have about the WM Phoenix Open this week:
1. Matsuyama or Koepka? Brooks won for his second time here last year and Hideki won here in 2017 and 2016. Do I think that Koepka will repeat? No. Do I think that Matsuyama will win for the third time here? Likely not, but I like his odds much more than Koepka’s.
2. Will we see the score get to -20? Since 2008, only one player has reached the -20 number and that was Mickelson in 2013 when he tied the tournament record. There’s a lot of skill in the event this year, and I do think we will see a player get to -20, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
3. Will wind play a factor? It looks as though the wind won’t be super crazy this week, but there is expected to be some along with gusts here and there, so players could be impacted at times. Don’t factor wind into how you select players though, we aren’t playing in Texas after all.
Lineup construction strategy this week: The field is big but not super huge, so you might want to get a bit more aggressive than a full field event. The scrubs range looks decent to me this week, so I think I’ll be going with a stars and scrubs mentality. Take a look at projected ownership on Wednesday and leave a few hundred bucks on the table if you want a unique lineup that could pull down a big GPP.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.6K) – He’s priced quite expensive this week, but it’s warranted as he just keeps piling up elite finishes almost every time he tees it up. He has a win and eight top 9’s over his last twelve starts, his record at this tournament is quite solid as well with six straight top 16’s and he has just been ball-striking the crap out of this track. The only reason to not roster Rahm this week is because you think he’s too expensive, but he’s so money in the bank. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13, 2020 – T9, 2019 – T10, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T16.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – We haven’t seen Cantlay play here before, but he comes into this week on fire with two wins and five straight top 9’s. He actually lost strokes on approach last week and it likely cost him the win at Pebble Beach, but I expect he will bounce back this week and have another top 5 finish. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) – Hovland has a remarkable three wins and four top 4’s in his last five starts including in his most recent start on the European Open at the Dubai Desert Classic. He’s an incredible ball-striker and there’s no reason to think his off the tee and approach game won’t shine through again this week. He missed the cut here two years ago, but he’s at a whole new level now and should have a strong finish come Sunday evening. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
The $9K Range
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – He just keeps hitting incredible approach shots and actually hasn’t lost strokes in this stat category since this tournament last year – don’t count on it happening two years in a row. He has five straight top 26’s including a T5 at the Tournament of Champions and a T7 at the Hero World Challenge – they are a small field, yes, but he’s so strong every time he plays and it isn’t enough for my liking. He withdrew last week citing a sore back, so keep an eye on it this week just in case he withdraws again, but if he doesn’t, he’s a superb play at his salary number on DK. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T9, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T7.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – He regularly finishes in the teens and 20’s and pops for top 10’s too including his win at the Olympics where he was solid in every stat category. Xander has a fairly solid record at TPC Scottsdale, and that should continue this week if his well-balanced golf game pulls through which I believe it will. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T2, 2020 – T16, 2019 – T10, and 2018 – T17.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Scheffler has three top 4’s in his last six starts including a runner-up at the Hero World Challenge and a T2 at the Houston Open. He’s a really good ball-striker, has a decent short game, and should win at some point this year if he plays to his strengths. I also like that he finished top 10 here last year and he has the potential to better that this week in his third look at the event. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7 and 2020 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – We keep waiting for him to falter but he’s not – Power has been sizzling for quite some time now and I don’t think that will change for a while yet. He has five straight top 15’s including a T3 at the Sony Open last month and he’s fresh off a T9 last week where he was sound on approach and putting. He missed the cut here three years ago, but he was a scrub player then – not anymore, expect the good times to keep rolling this week for the Irish sensation. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Louis Oosthuizen (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – Remember this guy? We haven’t seen Oosthuizen since The RSM Classic last November where he withdrew. He was so strong last season and I expect that he’s eager to get his 2022 started off on the right foot and he has come to the right place as he has two top 11’s here in two starts since 2017. It’s hard to say what Louis we will see this week, but I like him at his price and will be an investor. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T11 and 2017 – T3.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – With six top 25’s in his last seven starts including a solo 2nd two starts ago at the Sony Open, Henley has loads of momentum heading into this week. His results at this venue have been decent and I believe he will add his seventh top 25 in his last eight starts. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T30, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T15, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T16.
The $7K Range
Andrew Putnam (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Putnam is coming off a T6 last week thanks to playing strong throughout his bag except for around the green, but that was his worst performance in that facet of the game in quite some time, so no cause for concern. He has three straight top 27’s and came in T7 here a year ago – I like how things line up for Andrew this week, and think he’s a decent mid-tier play. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7, 2020 – Cut, and 2019 – Cut.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – He has five top 15’s in his last six starts, and is doing it through his outstanding short game which is his signature move. His best finish here is a T33, but I think with how he’s playing right now, you can count on something better than that if his putter remains hot. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T59, and 2019 – T33.
The $6K Range
Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – He has three top 50’s in his last four starts including a T25 at the Farmers Insurance Open in a fairly strong field for this time of the year. He’s risky but is a decent play if you need a few scrub players to use in your GPP lineups. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Adam Hadwin (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Hadwin has only missed one cut in his last eight starts and is coming off a T16 last week where he gained 5.56 ball-striking. He has six consecutive top 50’s at this tournament, and that trend should continue this week since he’s excellent off the tees, around the greens, and putting here also. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T50, 2020 – T40, 2019 – T44, 2018 – T43, 2017 – T12.
Wyndham Clark (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – He has only missed one cut line in his last seven starts and that came last week, but only because his putter was unusually off. I don’t really like his stats too much, but he drives a long ball and as long as his putter cooperates this week, he could have another 30-something finish here for the third straight year. Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T36, 2020 – T34, and 2018 – Cut.
