Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour moves from Las Vegas, Nevada, to Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, for the fourth edition of the ZOZO Championship. We have just 78 golfers playing this week, and there is of course no cut to worry about after round 2.
There’s $11M to be won this week, the winner takes home $1.98M and also snags 500 FedEx Cup points. The Narashino Country Club is 7,079 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass and average 5,500 square feet. The average winning score at this tournament since 2019 on this course in 2019 and 2021 is -17, so expect something similar this week. Place bets on golfers who are long off the tee, solid around the greens, sound off the tee, fluent from tee to green, and good on approach.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the ZOZO Championship this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts? Sungjae Im has 4, Xander Schauffele has 3, Tom Kim has 3, Tom Hoge has 3, Sepp Straka has 3, and a few others have 2.
2. Which players have the most top 10’s at the ZOZO Championship over the last three years? Hideki Matsuyama has 2, Corey Conners has 2, and several others have 1. It should be noted that Matsuyama’s both came in his native homeland of Japan in 2019 and 2021.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total here (4 rounds minimum) since 2019? Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Matt Wallace, Cameron Champ, Luke List, Sam Ryder, Sebastian Munoz, Keegan Bradley, Sungjae Im, and Dylan Frittelli.
Below you will find players that I will bet, I might bet, and won’t bet. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable in roughly 75% of the weeks I’m active.
Quick Links:
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Sungjae Im (+900) – He’s threatening to win for the first time since last year’s Shriners Children’s Open and he’s making a strong case with three T2’s, a 7th, and a 12th over his last five starts. His stats are world-class and he had a T3 here three years ago, he’s a prime candidate to win and I’ll be betting him outright, and as a top 5 and top 10 wager, as well.
Tom Kim (+1400) – The 20-year-old phenom busts into this week with two wins in his last three starts and is a constant threat no matter which tour he plays on. He doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses and could be a legit superstar by this time next year if he continues to play how he is. I don’t think he will win again this week but I’m still betting the outright, top 5, and top 10 and will see what happens come Sunday.
Keegan Bradley (+3500) – Bradley has been fantastic on this track with a T13 in 2019 and a T7 last year, and he could come up big again this week if he plays to his strengths like he did last week with his T5. He had a very surprising 6.14 strokes gained putting two weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and if the putter stays hot then he could put up another top 10 since his ball-striking is normally strong. I’m going to bet him to finish top 10 and might place a top 5 wager also, but that decision likely won’t come until just before last call.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1400) – His recent form isn’t super strong but he’s unreal on this course with the win last year and a 2nd three years ago behind Tiger Woods. His form wasn’t overly impressive last year either at this time and he won with ease by 5 strokes, so recent form shouldn’t factor into your decision. I’m betting Matsuyama to win, finish top 5, and top 10.
Tom Hoge (+4000) – It’s hard to ignore Hoge who has two T4’s, a T10, and a T12 over his last five starts and has been fabulous with his ball-striking and putting. I’m going to bet him to finish top 10, but likely won’t do much more than that.
5 Players That I Might Bet
Matthew NeSmith (+7000) – I’m interested in NeSmith this week as he has gone T9-T2 over his last two starts and gained 14.58 strokes ball-striking collective between them. I’ll likely be on the +200 for a top 20 and might venture into top 10 territory as well, but can’t make that commitment just yet.
Andrew Putnam (+4000) – He has been a model of consistency since June with lots of good finishes including a T5 in the first leg of the playoffs last season and a T12 last week thanks to solid approach play and putting. He hasn’t had much luck at this venue just yet, but seems like a decent top 20 bet this week at +120.
Xander Schauffele (+800) – This is the type of tournament that Schauffele gets up for, and he has two wins and a 4th over his last five starts, so he seems poised to make some noise this week. He had a T10 here three years ago and I expect something similar this week or perhaps a bit better even. I’m not sure I’ll bet him to win, but I’m intrigued with a top 5 and top 10 wager.
Sepp Straka (+5000) – It’s hard to know if his recent three tournaments are outliers or if this streak will continue for a while now. With two runner-ups and a T7 over those three starts and his stats looking quite impressive, I’m contemplating making a top 20 and maybe even make a top 10 bet also, but I need to do more research first.
Mark Hubbard (+6000) – Hubbard has three straight top 28’s to start this campaign including his T5 two starts ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship when he gained 7.22 strokes on approach and 4.19 with his short game. I’m examining the top 20 bet at +175, but need to give it some more thought first.
5 Players That I Won’t Bet
Viktor Hovland (+1800) – He has had 40-something finishes in his two ZOZO Championship starts, but he’s a much better player now than two and three years ago when he last played. He has been fine lately on the European Tour, but I just don’t think I feel comfortable laying down money on Hovland this week.
Aaron Rai (+7000) – Here’s another player who has lots of potential but his off the tee play and short game aren’t good enough for me. I like his approach play and putting, but that isn’t going to sway me given he also doesn’t have experience on this track yet.
Brendan Steele (+7000) – Nothing much doing for Steele as of late with three straight missed cuts and 4/5 since late July. His putter has been downright awful, and I just can’t invest in a player who can’t make putts. He had a T2 here last year, so the potential is there, but I’m more of a recent form type of gambler and don’t like what I see from Brendan over the last few months.
C.T. Pan (+20000) – With two starts here in 2019 and 2021, Pan finished T59 and T57 respectively. Over his last five starts, he has two missed cuts, a withdrawal, a T67, and a T72, and is bleeding strokes like crazy.
Chez Reavie (+20000) – He won seven starts ago at the Barracuda Championship but since then has three missed cuts and in his other three starts he has finishes ranging from T47 to T51. He had a 70th place finish here three years ago, and it just seems unlikely that anyone will be betting Reavie this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
