Bold NFL Predictions
Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and that could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, advanced metrics, coaching changes, and other information. With this in mind here are 10 bold predictions for Week 11.
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Tua Tagovailoa Finishes as a Low-End QB1
Tagovailoa is undefeated in his first three career starts. He’s finished with 8.7, 24, and 16.4 fantasy points in each start. Tagovailoa only averaged 25 pass attempts over that time frame. The reality is that the rookie hasn’t needed to do much with how the Dolphins defense has played over the last three games. Miami has also ranked ninth in rushing attempts over that span of time. We have seen glimpses of what Tagovailoa is capable of as a passer and a runner.
Tua threw a dime on the run 🎯 @Tua @MiamiDolphins
📺 #LACvsMIA on CBS pic.twitter.com/ykhlLBSdct
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 15, 2020
The Dolphins matchup against the Broncos provides the team an opportunity to fully unleash him. Quarterbacks against the Broncos defense over the last five games have averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game. This includes rookie Justin Herbert who torched Denver with 278 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Kalen Ballage Finishes as the Fantasy RB1
Ballage has averaged 21 opportunities and 16 PPR fantasy points over the last two games. He’s locked in as the Chargers bell-cow until Justin Jackson returns from his knee injury. Ballage ran 22 pass routes last week against the Dolphins which was very encouraging and now has an opportunity to face his old team the Jets.
So Kalen Ballage is having two back to back revenge games. I wonder if ppl keep track of how many times that’s happened? 🤔. Frank Gore and Fitzmagic must have a million of those 😂
— Troy King 👨🏾🎨🕺🏾 (@TKingMode) November 18, 2020
The Jets have allowed an average of 25 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Tony Pollard Finishes with more Fantasy Points than Ezekiel Elliott
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott said his hamstring “is a little tight. It’s a little stiff. …It’s something that I’m working on every day.” Finished practice today. Injury feels “more comfortable” today than it did entering Nov. 8 game vs. Steelers.
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) November 18, 2020
It is concerning that Elliott is still having issues with his hamstring even after the Cowboys bye week. He’s played 79 percent of Dallas’ offensive snaps this season and has averaged 22.3 opportunities per game this season. Elliott’s efficiency on a per-game basis has been on a decline since his rookie season back in 2016. This season he’s averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game less than expected. A hamstring injury is unlikely to improve Elliott’s effectiveness. The Cowboys may feel compelled to provide him opportunities due to his massive contract, but they should get Tony Pollard more involved, in my opinion. The second-year running back has three RB1 performances on his statistical resume despite only averaging 7.2 opportunities per game in his career. Did you know that Pollard has only played 20% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps over the last two seasons? Dallas has a plus matchup against a Vikings defense (108) that has allowed the ninth-most PPR fantasy points per game this season.
DeVante Parker Finishes as the Fantasy WR1
Parker is not yet on the same page with Tagovailoa. He has only caught eight of 14 targets for 95 yards over the past two games. The great news is that Parker has accumulated 162 air yards over that time. He has a plus matchup against the Broncos defense in Week 11. Denver has allowed an average of 33 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers over its past five games. Parker and Tagovailoa have the perfect opportunity to become calibrated for fantasy managers.
Henry Ruggs Finishes as Top-12 Wide Receiver
Ruggs has been a polarizing player for fantasy managers this season. He’s only averaged 3.6 targets and 68 air yards per game while playing 68 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps. Ruggs has had 11 targets of 20 or more yards this season. The rookie has only caught three of them for 163 yards. Ruggs had the best game of his short NFL career against the Chiefs back in Week 5. He finished that game with 20 PPR fantasy points. The Raiders will have to lean more on the passing game to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense. It’s in the realm of possibility that Ruggs replicates his production from Week 5.
Logan Thomas has a chance to finish as the fantasy TE1
Logan Thomas has played 88% of Washington’s offensive snaps this season and has accumulated 12 targets over the team’s last two games. Tight ends have averaged 20 PPR fantasy points per game against the Bengals over their last five games. Thomas is a sneaky DFS play this week and one I like a lot.
Dalton Schultz finishes as a top-six fantasy tight end
Schultz has been targeted 15 times and has accumulated 132 air yards over the Cowboys’ last two games. The Dallas Cowboys might not be dead yet. After a week off and rumors of a return from Andy Dalton, there is still a shot this team can make the post season in 2020. The Cowboys have an easy schedule and the NFC is a joke.
NFL Rest-of-Season Strength of Schedule (green = easiest)#clayprojections pic.twitter.com/OmbfZL7QKT
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 17, 2020
