NFL Pick’em: Week 11

NFL Pick'em: Week 11 We had another solid showing here last week with our picks. We broke even at 50% in picks against the spread and over/unders while going 9-3 on moneyline picks. All-in-all it’s been a good season with our predictions here. We’ve hit 50% of our picks ATS, 56% on over/unders, and 66% on moneyline picks. An overall record of 246-183-7 has been good enough for a top-15 ranking on Tallysight against over 500 analysts.

I’m excited to bring this process over to the launch of our newest offering, BettingData! We have some tough games to predict this week with lower projected totals based on what we’ve seen this season. We also see the public favoring the underdog to cover on a high percentage of games this week. It’s never easy, but Week 11 looks particularly challenging to peg.

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for Week 11.

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6) (O/U 49)

The Titans are averaging 27.7 PPG overall this season but just 20.3 PPG over their last three games and 22.3 PPG on the road.
The Ravens have allowed just 18.3 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
The Ravens are averaging 27.1 PPG overall this season but just 21.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have allowed 26.1 PPG this season.
The Titans are 3-6 ATS this season.
The OVER is 6-2-1 for the Titans this season.
The UNDER is 6-3 for the Ravens this season.
The Ravens defense has forced 17 fumbles this season — most in NFL.
The Ravens defense has allowed scores on just 26% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%
Only 38% of the plays run against the Ravens have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%
The Titans defense has hurried opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%
The Titans defense has allowed 123 completions since Week 7 — most in NFL.
Ryan Tannehill has completed just 60% of passes (53 completions/88 net pass attempts) when not under pressure since Week 7 — worst of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 71%
Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-21.5 in favor of the Ravens.
The public likes the Ravens to win but the Titans to cover with the under hitting.

We get an intriguing matchup to start things off here, featuring two teams that are longing for the days of 2019 when they were duking it out in the postseason. They both are coming into this game with shaky recent form but offer a solid 6-3 record on the season.

The Ravens are coming off a disappointing loss against the Patriots despite coming into the game as full-TD favorites. They have now dropped two of their last three games but have an impressive win over a tough Indy defense in between those games.

The Titans are in first place in the AFC South for the time being, but they’re trying everything in their power to blow it, having dropped three of their last four games. They just got beat 17-34 at home against the very same Indy team that the Ravens recently beat, which could be a decent indicator of how we could expect their matchup to go against the Ravens.

On offense, these teams are really evenly matched. The Titans have accumulated slightly more total yards on average than the Ravens. The Titans also have the edge every so slightly in third-down conversion rate and have been one of the more solid teams in the league in the red zone this season, having converted 76.5% of those drives into a score.

We see a big momentum shift when comparing the defenses here. The Titans haven’t really done anything particularly well on defense, while the Ravens have allowed the fewest points per game in the league. A standout stat here is seeing the Ravens allow opponents to convert just 33.6% of third downs, which is bad news for a Titans team that sits below 50% in this category.

I think the public is right on with their take on this game, though I am not very confident in the Titans covering.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 24-20

Picks: Titans +6, Under 49

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Eagles are averaging 22.6 PPG this season.
The Browns have allowed 27.1 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Browns are averaging 24 PPG overall this season but just 17.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Eagles have allowed 25.8 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
These teams haven’t met since 09/11/16.
The Eagles have won their last five games against the Browns dating back to 2000 and are 6-2 against the Browns dating back to 1988.
Both teams are 3-6 ATS this season.
The Browns have thrown for 1,766 passing yards in 9 games (196.2 YPG) this season — second-worst in NFL. The Eagles have allowed 211.8 passing yards per game this season — sixth-best in NFL.
The Browns have rushed for 1,446 yards this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Eagles have allowed 1,214 yards rushing this season — seventh-most in NFL.
The Eagles have thrown for 20+ yards on 21 of 344 attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Browns allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Eagles have rushed the ball on 36.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — tied for third-lowest in NFL. The Browns have allowed 4.1 yards per carry this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
Carson Wentz has been sacked 35 times (3.9 p/g) this season — most among NFL QBs.
Carson Wentz has been hit 84 times this season — most among NFL QBs.
The Browns defense has allowed an average of 1.6 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 2.0
Eagles RBs are averaging 5.7 yards per carry since Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
The Eagles defense has stuffed 26% of rushing attempts to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%
Vegas has an implied total of 25.5-22 in favor of the Browns.
The public likes the Browns to win but the Eagles to cover with the under hitting.

Both of these teams have been a part of low-scoring affairs as of late. The Browns are coming off a 10-7 win against the Texans last week. They lost 6-16 against the Raiders before that. They had a solid run early in the season where it looked tough to keep them under 30 points, but things have cooled down a lot since.

The Eagles lost 17-27 against their division rival the Giants last week, bringing them to a dreadful 3-5-1 record this season. That is somehow good enough for first place in the depressing NFC East. They had won back-to-back games before that against the Cowboys and Giants again. The Eagles are finally getting closer to full health on offense, but they aren’t playing like it.

The stats on offense mostly point towards the Browns being the better team here. They’ve generated more total yards of offense on average though they run fewer plays per game. The Browns have also converted third downs at a higher rate and turned their red-zone drives into a score at a higher percent than Philly.

Things are more closely matched on defense, with Philly getting some key advantages. Most impressively, the Eagles have allowed opponents to convert just 39.2% of third downs this season. They’ve also allowed slightly fewer total yards and points per game on average.

Neither team is playing at it’s optimum potential right now, but the Browns definitely look to be on more of an upswing, especially having just got Nick Chubb back from injury last week. They have also shown the ability to be more dominant at times this season, while the Eagles have been pretty sad for most of the season. I don’t know that the Eagles have it in them to cover.

Final Prediction: Browns win 26-20

Picks: Browns -3.5, Under 47.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5) (O/U 50.5)

The Falcons are averaging 27 PPG this season.
The Saints have allowed 23.7 PPG overall this season but just 13 PPG over their last three games.
The Saints are averaging 30.1 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The Falcons have allowed 27.9 PPG overall this season but just 22.3 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 7-2 for the Saints this season — second-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six games between these teams.
The Saints are 4-1 straight-up over their last five games against the Falcons.
The Saints have run 20% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
The Saints defense has allowed 20 of 25 (80%) TDs through the air this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 62%
The Saints defense has allowed an average of 1.6 yards after contact per carry (206 carries) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 2.0
The Falcons have allowed 250 or more passing yards in 8 games this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed 22 TD passes this season — most in NFL.
The Saints have run 53% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 46%
The Saints have run 117 plays in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
Matt Ryan has a passer rating of 98.5 when under pressure this season — best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 55.9
The Falcons have made 7 or more explosive plays in 9 games this season — most in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.8-22.8 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win but the Falcons to cover with the over hitting.

One of the more exciting division rivalries will have a different look this week with Jameis Winston set to start with Drew Brees hurt. While the under has been the trend to hit between these teams in recent matchups, no one is quite as good at coaxing an over than Jameis. The Saints also come into this game with a ton of momentum, having won six straight despite missing their star wideout, Michael Thomas, for most of that stretch. From a betting perspective, the Saints saw the over hit in each of their first seven games but have now seen the under hit in back-to-back games with neither of their opponents being able to score more than one TD in a game.

The Falcons are trying their best to work their way up in the NFC South, and a brutal blow to the first-place Saints would go a long way here. Atlanta dropped its first five games of the season but has managed to win three of their last four. Their only loss in their last four games should have been a win also against the Lions.

The Saints have been one of the top offenses in the league this season, so it’s no surprise to see them have the edge over the Falcons in the most important statistical categories. However, the Falcons have been able to put up more volume on offense when it comes to total yards and plays per game.

Things get more drastic when comparing defenses. The Saints have allowed just 5.1 yards per play to opponents this season compared to 6.5 for the Falcons. That’s a big edge for New Orleans. Both teams are close when it comes to both third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage as well. All-in-all, the Saints defense has been better this season.

The wild card that you really can’t factor in here is Jameis. We know his gunslinger ways were good enough to propel the Bucs’ offenses of late to being some of the league’s top-scoring teams. But his error-prone ways cost them wins and his job. He can duel with Ryan, no doubt, but I am far less confident in the Saints walking away with this without Brees under center. In their last game at New Orleans, the Falcons walked in as +14 underdogs last season and wound up winning 26-9. I don’t think we see that type of a blowout, but I think we see the Falcons upset on the road again.

Final Prediction: Falcons win 30-27

Picks: Falcons +5, Over 50.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 46.5)

The Steelers are averaging 30.1 PPG this season — tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars have allowed 30.1 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars are averaging 22.1 PPG this season.
The Steelers have allowed 19 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Steelers are 7-2 ATS this season — tied for best in the NFL.
The road team has won each of the last four games between these teams and 10 of the last 12.
The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Steelers.
The Steelers have run 52.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Jaguars have allowed their opponents to run 54.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have run 13.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponent to run 13.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have 7 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Steelers defense has pressured opposing QBs 128 times this season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed opponents to catch just 173 of 301 passes (57% Reception Pct) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68%
The Jaguars defense has allowed 6.4 yards after the catch this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.1
The Jaguars have sacked the quarterback just 9 times this season — fewest in NFL. The Steelers have sacked the quarterback 36 times this season — most in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-18.2 in favor of the Steelers.
The public likes the Steelers to win with the under hitting, but the spread is a push.

The Steelers’ push towards a perfect season continues this week. They shouldn’t have much trouble handling a Jags team that hasn’t won a game since Week 1. This game is a classic case of one of the best offenses in the league facing one of the worst defenses. The Steelers also boast one of the best defenses in the league that should completely shut down the Jags, who have one of the worst offenses.

The toughest part of this matchup from a betting perspective is finding out who is the best bet to cover the spread. The Jags have done a pretty decent job of doing that against the Steelers in the past. They have also managed to keep things close in their last two games against both the Texans and Packers. The tough part is that the Steelers have also been one of the best teams at covering the spread this season, though this is the second-largest spread they’ve seen this season, and they recently failed to cover as 14-point favorites against Dallas. Another thing to factor in here is that the Steelers could overlook the Jags a bit with a Thanksgiving matchup against the Ravens on tap for next week.

There is enough here to make me believe the Jags could do enough to cover, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them completely blown out of the water. This line is unfortunately perfectly set at 10 points, but if you can get the Jags +10.5 or better, I would take it.

Final Prediction: Steelers win 30-23

Picks: Jaguars +10, Over 46.5

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-1.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Lions are averaging 25.2 PPG this season.
The Panthers have allowed 27.2 PPG overall this season and 34.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
The Lions have allowed 29.7 PPG overall this season (fourth-most) and 34 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 6-3 for the Lions this season.
The Panthers are 6-3 all-time against the Lions.
The home team has won four of the last five games between these teams.
The Panthers have 12 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for sixth-most in NFL. The Lions have allowed 16 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.
The Panthers have gone three and out on 9% of their drives this season — best in NFL.
The Panthers have run 52.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 49.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run 16.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Panthers have allowed their opponent to run 19.0% of plays in the red zone this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Panthers defense has allowed 686 yards after contact to RBs this season — most in NFL.
The Panthers’ defense has allowed 15 receptions for 20+ yards to WRs since Week 7 — most in NFL.
The Panthers defense have forced three and outs on 8% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%
The Panthers’ secondary has missed 52 tackles this season — most in NFL.
The public likes the Lions to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Panthers are desperately trying to get right in this matchup as they’ve now lost five straight. They’ve shown some promise this season and were able to stay within two points of the Chiefs recently, but the wheels really came off last week in their 23-46 loss to the Bucs. Luckily, they get an opponent who is primed to offer a get right matchup in the Lions.

The Lions came away with a win last week, but it wasn’t for lack of trying to give the game back to Washington. Detroit had a 21-point lead heading into the third quarter and nearly let WFT come back and take the game from them.

On offense, the Lions have put up more volume than the Panthers this season, but things are matched pretty tightly between them. The Panthers have the slightest edge having a higher third-down conversion rate, though neither team has been great there. The Panthers have also converted red-zone drives into a score at a higher rate. Both teams have been dreadful on defense this season and even more so in their recent form, having allowed over 34 PPG over their last three games apiece.

The lines are kind of all over the place for this game as Teddy Bridgewater deals with an injury and is questionable to play. I would anticipate he suits up, but former XFL MVP P.J. Walker could be in line to start if not. I don’t think Walker would be that much of a downgrade from Teddy, and he has a lot of experience working with coach Matt Rhule thanks to their time together in college at Temple. I’m watching this line closely as we could see an overreaction if Teddy is ultimately ruled out, and you could get much more favorable odds on the Panthers in that case. The Lions haven’t instilled much faith with their recent performances, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers’ losing streak end here. The over feels like the best play in this game, with both defenses showing many struggles recently.

Final Prediction: Panthers win 27-26

Picks: Lions +1.5, Over 47.5

New England Patriots (-1) at Houston Texans (O/U 49)

The Patriots are averaging 21 PPG this season.
The Texans have allowed 28 PPG overall this season but just 23.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans are averaging 22.2 PPG overall this season and just 18 PPG over their last three games.
The Patriots have allowed 23.4 PPG overall this season and 28 PPG on the road.
The Texans are just 2-7 ATS this season.
The home team is 5-0 in the last five games between these teams.
The Patriots are 10-2 all-time against the Texans.
The Patriots have rushed the ball on 51.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.4 yards per carry this season — worst in NFL.
The Texans defense has allowed 10.0 yards after the catch to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4
The Patriots defense has allowed 6.6 yards after the catch to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.4
The Texans have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 30% of pass attempts this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 31.0% of passing plays this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Texans defense has forced 6 turnovers this season — fewest in NFL.
The Texans have run 42.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. Patriots have allowed their opponents to run 41.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25-24 in favor of the Patriots.
The public likes the Patriots to win and cover with the under hitting.

This game has seen the biggest line movement in the spread this week, with the Patriots making a statement against the Ravens on Monday night. This marks back-to-back wins for the Pats, but we can’t forget how close they were to losing to the Jets the week before. The Pats haven’t traveled well this season and are just 1-3 on the road.

The Texans lost a tough one against the Browns last week in a low-scoring affair, 7-10. They have only been able to beat the Jags this season, who account for both of their wins. The Texans haven’t been any better when it comes to covering the spread for bettors this season, with a 2-7 record there as well.

When comparing the stats, these teams are very evenly matched in pretty much all aspects. The Texans have favored more passing volume this season, whereas the Pats have been more run-heavy. When it comes to total yards of offense, these teams average within one yard of each other. On defense, we see the Pats take a more commanding edge. They have allowed fewer PPG and total yards to their opponents this season, as well as a lower third-down conversion rate.

The Patriots’ struggles on the road this season shouldn’t be ignored as a concern here, and I can’t look past their struggles against the Jets on the road especially. Fortunately, I think their running game is strong enough to run all over the Texans’ incredibly weak run defense, giving them enough of an edge to win this one, but this is one of the toughest games of the week to peg.

Final Prediction: Patriots win 22-20

Picks: Patriots -1, Under 49

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1) (O/U 47)

The Bengals are averaging 22.7 PPG overall this season and just 18.6 PPG on the road.
WFT has allowed 24.2 PPG overall this season but just 20.8 PPG at home and 18.7 PPG over their last three games.
WFT is averaging 20 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Bengals have allowed 27.8 PPG overall this season, but 30.4 PPG on the road and 31 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 5-3-1 for the Bengals this season.
The Bengals are 6-3 ATS this season.
These teams haven’t met since 2016, and that game ended in a tie.
The Bengals are 4-2 straight-up in their last six games against WFT dating back to 1985.
WFT have scored on 48% of their drives in late and close games this season — tied for best in NFL. The Bengals defense has allowed scores on 55% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL.
27% of the plays run against the Bengals have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%
Bengals QBs have a 29.9 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — fourth-worst in NFL. WFT have allowed a passer rating of 33.0 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — second-best in NFL.
The Bengals defense has allowed 3.7 TD passes per game since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.7
The WFT defense has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (28/292) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 6%
The Bengals defense has sacked opposing QBs just once on 106 pass attempts since Week 7 — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 18.1
Washington Football Team RBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.
Joe Burrow has averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game this season — highest of qualified QBs. The Football Team has allowed 29.3 pass attempts per game this season — second-lowest in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 24-23 in favor of WFT.
The public likes the Bengals to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get another challenging game to figure out here that’s basically presented as a pick’em by oddsmakers. These teams rarely face each other, and even their last meeting ended in a tie giving us nothing to go off for head-to-head trends.

The Bengals unsurprisingly showed very little against the Steelers last week, losing 10-36. Before that, they put together a solid performance beating the Titans 31-20. They have put together some solid outings overall this season but have yet to find their first road win of the season. However, they have helped the over hit in three of their last four games, with last week being a push for the total. They’ve also managed to cover the spread in three of their last four.

WFT has lost back-to-back games though they showed more life in them last week with Alex Smith taking over under center. They nearly overcame a 21-point deficit to upset the Lions. Overall, the only teams they’ve beaten this season are similarly struggling NFC East teams in the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Bengals have shown an ability to put up more offensive volume on average this season, but Alex Smith has tried to change that, throwing for over 300 yards in back-to-back games. Both teams have been pretty abysmal regarding efficiency and rank near the bottom of the league on third-down conversion rate. The defense is where we see the biggest edge here, with WFT offering one of the most stout pass defenses in the league. They’ve also allowed opponents to convert third downs at a lower rate. One of their most drastic advantages on defense comes in the red zone, where they’ve allowed opponents to score on just 56% of RZ drives compared to 73.5% for the Bengals.

The Bengals have performed better than often expected this season, as evidenced by their solid 6-3 record ATS. Still, Washington has looked drastically better the last two weeks and offers the superior defense here.

Final Prediction: Washington wins 23-21

Picks: WFT -1, Under 47

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Denver Broncos (O/U 45)

The Dolphins are averaging 27.9 PPG this season.
The Broncos have allowed 28.2 PPG overall this season and 33.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Broncos are averaging 20.7 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
The Dolphins have allowed 20.2 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS this season — tied for best in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Broncos.
The Broncos have scored on 34% of their drives this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 29% of opponent drives this season — tied for second-best in NFL. Teams with this reason in their favor have historically beaten the spread 67% of the time.
The Broncos have a third-down conversion rate of 39.0% this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 34.0% this season — tied for best in NFL.
The Broncos have committed 11 turnovers since Week 7 — tied for most in NFL.
Drew Lock has thrown 10 interceptions in 7 games this season — worst of 26 qualified NFL QBs.
Drew Lock has a 66.5 passer rating this season — worst of qualified QBs. The Dolphins have an average opposing passer rating of 87.8 this season — sixth-best in NFL.
The Broncos defense has allowed 23 broken tackles since Week 7 — tied for most in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 24-21 in favor of the Dolphins.
The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover with the under hitting.

The line for this game feels the most offset of any for me this week. I feel like the Dolphins have shown more than enough to be much bigger favorites than three points against the Broncos. The Fins have won and covered the spread in five in a row and still offer a top-five defense going up against a bottom-five offense in the Broncos, who have lost back-to-back games.

On offense, the teams are pretty evenly matched when it comes to volume, but the Dolphins are averaging a full TD per game more. We unsurprisingly see the Dolphins with the edge on defense as well and especially as of late with the Broncos allowing 43 points to the Chiefs, 30 points to the Chargers, 34 points to the Falcons, and 37 points to the Raiders over the last four games.

I’m taking the Dolphins all the way and liking the over with the potential of the Broncos only needing to put up somewhere in the neighborhood of two scores for the over to hit.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 30-17

Picks: Dolphins -3, Over 45

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) (O/U 46.5)

The Jets are averaging 13.4 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
The Chargers have allowed 27.2 PPG this season.
The Chargers are averaging 25.1 PPG this season.
The Jets have allowed 29.8 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The OVER has hit in each of the last six games for the Chargers.
The Jets are 2-7 ATS this season.
The Chargers have won each of their last three games against the Jets.
The Jets have run successful plays on 38.0% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL. Chargers have allowed successful plays on 44.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Jets have gone three and out on 26% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. Chargers have forced three and outs on 24% of opponents’ drives this season — tied for third-best in the NFL.
The Jets have thrown for 20+ yards on 19 of 295 attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Chargers allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Jets have run 7.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in the NFL. Chargers have allowed their opponent to run 13.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 28-18.5 in favor of the Chargers.
The public likes the Chargers to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Chargers finally get a get right matchup here after dropping three straight games. They continue to play each opponent very close and feel like a better team than their 2-7 record implies.

The Jets are still riding high after their three-point loss to the Pats in their last game. That’s about as good as the season is going to get for them. Seriously though, how does Adam Gase still have a job? They have scored the fewest points in the league on offense, and their defense has been in the bottom three all season as well. Just terrible.

As with most games involving the Jets, their opponents have the advantage in most categories. It just comes down to who will cover the spread and if the total will go over or not. The over is on a hot streak for the Chargers, but the Jets would be just the perfect team to end that streak. Maybe their performance against the Pats shows us that they’ve figured something out as well. We’ll have to see more before I would even think of betting on the Jets, but if they can keep it close again this week, they will have proved something to me.

Final Prediction: Chargers win 27-17

Picks: Chargers +9.5, Under 46.5

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7) (O/U 47.5)

The Cowboys are averaging 22.7 PPG overall this season but just 10.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Vikings have allowed 27.4 PPG overall this season but just 18.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Vikings are averaging 26.2 PPG overall this season and 30.2 PPG at home.
The Cowboys have allowed 32.2 PPG overall this season — most in the NFL.
The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS this season — worst in the NFL.
The Vikings are 6-3 ATS this season — tied for third-best.
The OVER is 6-3 for the Vikings this season.
The Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Cowboys and have covered in each of their last five games against them.
The Vikings are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season — tied for best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.
Vikings WRs have 12 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for seventh-most in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — tied for most in NFL.
Adam Thielen has 9 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for most of qualified WRs. The Cowboys have allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — tied for most in NFL.
Kirk Cousins has averaged 13.3 yards per completion this season — best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 11.1
The Vikings defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 246 carries this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 25.4
The Cowboys have committed 2 or more turnovers in 7 games this season — most in NFL.
The Vikings have completed passes for 20+ yards on 33 of their 245 total passing attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-20.2 in favor of the Vikings.
The public likes the Vikings to win but the Cowboys to cover with the over hitting.

I can’t figure out how so many people can get behind the Cowboys covering in this game and how the spread is so small. I guess the Cowboys putting up a fight against the Steelers erased the fact that they’ve been an absolute abomination since losing Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been surging, winning three in a row and gotten much stronger defensive performances from what we saw earlier in the season.

With the trends even supporting the Vikes to cover, this game feels like one of the biggest locks of the week for me. The tougher part to decide is the total, but I don’t really have faith in the Cowboys doing their part to help push the over.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 28-17

Picks: Vikings -7, Under 47.5

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1) (O/U 51)

The Packers are averaging 30.8 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The Colts have allowed just 19.7 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Colts are averaging 26.9 PPG this season.
The Packers have allowed 24.9 PPG overall this season but 27.8 PPG on the road.
The Packers are 6-3 ATS this season.
The OVER has hit in each of the last six games between these teams.
The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine games between these teams dating back to 1985.
The Colts have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 15% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. The Packers have pressured opposing QBs on 20.0% of passing plays this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Packers have gone three and out on 20% of their drives in late and close games this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. Colts have forced three and outs on 23% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — second-best in NFL.
The Colts have run 53% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 46%
Green Bay Packers WRs have averaged a touchdown every 6.7 receptions this season — best Receptions per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 12.6
Aaron Rodgers has completed 10 passes for 40+ yards this season — most among NFL QBs.
Vegas has an implied total of 26-25 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the under hitting.

We get another tough game here with a narrow spread to analyze this week. The Colts have won three of their last four, including an impressive 34-17 win against the Titans last week. Their defense continues to be a deciding factor in their games’ outcome and remains a top-five unit. Despite this strong defense, we have seen the over hit in four of Indy’s last five games.

The Packers remain in first place in the NFC North and boast a strong 7-2 record. However, they’re coming off a shaky performance against the Jags where they should have easily walked away with a win. Instead, they narrowly escaped winning 24-20. They have been more dominant than that, for the most part this season, but you would like them to have more momentum coming into this tough matchup.

On offense, the Packers have simply moved the ball better than the Colts this season. They’ve accumulated more total yards per game, converted third downs at a higher rate, and impressively have the edge with a 73.5% RZ scoring percentage compared to 55.9% for Indy.

The Colts defense holds a solid edge over the Packers here, but it will really need to put together a seamless performance against Aaron Rodgers who has thrust himself back into the elite conversation this season. I think the Packers’ struggles last week might be blown out of proportion a little and affecting this line here. While very solid, the Colts defense has allowed 32 points to the Browns, 27 points to the Bengals, and 24 points to the Ravens this season. They’re not a shutdown unit, and Rodgers could expose some of their flaws here this week.

Final Prediction: Packers win 26-23

Picks: Packers +1, Under 51

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 56.5)

The Chiefs are averaging 31.8 PPG overall this season (second-most) and 37 PPG over their last three games.
The Raiders have allowed 26.8 PPG overall this season but just 14.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Raiders are averaging 28.3 PPG this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 20.3 PPG this season — sixth-fewest in the NFL.
Both teams are 6-3 ATS this season.
The OVER is 6-2-1 for the Raiders this season.
The Chiefs have scored on 53% of their drives this season — tied for best in NFL. The Raiders’ defense has allowed scores on 48% of opponent drives this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have a third-down conversion rate of 67.0% in late and close games this season — best in NFL. The Raiders defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 67.0% in close and late situations this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Raiders have rushed for 1,251 yards this season — seventh-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 1,250 yards rushing this season — fifth-most in NFL.
Patrick Mahomes has one interception on 329 attempts this season — best among NFL QBs.
The Chiefs have been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts (12/348) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 6%
The Chiefs defense has averaged a turnover percentage of 9% on plays where they have pressured the QB this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 5%
Derek Carr has not been intercepted when under pressure this season — tied for best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 26.3
The Chiefs defense has allowed opponents to catch 22 of 24 passes (92% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%
Vegas has an implied total of 32-24.5 in favor of the Chiefs.
The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Chiefs get a shot at redemption this week against the one blemish on their record this season, the Raiders. The Raiders got the best of the Chiefs 40-32 in what can best be described as one of the season’s biggest outliers. Credit where it’s due, the Raiders are much improved this season, but they have no business putting the Chiefs down like that again.

The stats, as they did before, pretty much all favor the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. I think the one thing you do have to give the Raiders credit for as well is their ability to cover as full-TD underdogs here. They had something figured out in the previous matchup, and while I don’t expect another upset, them keeping it close seems completely realistic.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 30-26

Picks: Raiders +7.5, Under 56.5

NFL Pick’em: Week 11