Bold Predictions
Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and that could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, advanced metrics, coaching changes, and other information. With this in mind here are 10 bold predictions for Week 13.
Kirk Cousins Finishes as a Top-Five Fantasy QB
Cousins has the seventh-highest true passer rating (107.5). This rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. The Vikings have leaned more on Cousins as a passer over the last three weeks. He’s averaged 26.6 fantasy points per game over that time frame. Cousins has an assortment of offensive weapons at his disposal including Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook. He faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed an average of 296 passing yards and 27.6 fantasy points per game to top quarterback scorers over their last five games.
Deshaun Watson Finishes Outside of the Top-12
Will Fuller announced earlier this week that he would be suspended six games for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Watson lost DeAndre Hopkins during free agency to the Cardinals and now Fuller. Wide receiver Randall Cobb is also dealing with a toe injury and was placed on injured reserve. Fuller led the Texans with 53 receptions for 879 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Houston’s offensive line ranks near the bottom of the NFL in our protection rate advanced metric. The Colts defense is one of the top units in the league. It could be a log day for Watson.
Frank Gore Finishes as a Fantasy RB1
Gore has averaged 19 opportunities per game over the Jets’ last two. La’Mical Perine injury has allowed the veteran running back to have the backfield to himself. The strength of the Jets offensive line is its run blocking. Gore faces a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 23 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five games.
Cam Akers Finishes as the Fantasy RB1
The Rams implemented their usual running back by committee last week. Darrell Henderson finished with 10 rushing attempts for 19 yards. Malcolm Brown ended up with four yards on three rushing attempts while Akers finished with a team-high 84 yards and a touchdown on nine rushing attempts. It’s in the realm of possibility for Akers to take control of the Rams’ backfield against the Cardinals this week. Los Angeles’ offensive line has done an excellent job all season run blocking.
Jarvis Landry Repeats His Week 12 Performance
Landry caught eight of 11 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Browns last week. He’s averaged 2.42 yards per pass route this season which ranks ninth among wide receivers. The Browns and Titans have a Vegas point total of 53.5. Tennessee’s defense has allowed wide receivers to average 41.3 PPR fantasy points per game this season which is the fifth highest in the NFL. Landry and Baker Mayfield have been on the same page for most of the season and that trend will continue in Week 13.
T.Y. Hilton Finishes as a Top-12 Fantasy Wide Receiver
Hilton caught four of five targets for 81 yards and a touchdown last week against the Titans. One of his reception was for a 50-yarder which resulted in the veteran receiver being tackled on the one-yard line. Hilton has a very favorable matchup against Texans cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III. The Colts and Texans have a Vegas point total of 50.5. Hilton only has two games this season with six or more targets. He could go boom against a Texans secondary that has allowed top wide receivers scorers to average 24.3 PPR fantasy points per game over the last five.
Jordan Akins Finishes as the Fantasy TE1
Jordan Akins is ranked 16th among tight ends in Hog Rate (12.1). This metric represents targets per snap to capture the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis. Akins is said to get more snaps out of the slot for the rest of the season. The Texans have a void in the passing game with Kenny Stills released, Randall Cobb injured, and Will Fuller suspended. Akins has an advantage over Colts linebacker Anthony Walker. This is a matchup the Texans should exploit.
Dallas Goedert emerges as the Eagles No. 1 Tight End and not Zach Ertz
Goedert caught seven of 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks last week. He’s accumulated 22 targets over the last three weeks. Goedert has the sixth-highest average target distance (9) among tight ends has zero drops this season. Zach Ertz is expected back very soon, but Goedert will be featured in the role moving forward previously held by the veteran tight end.
Rapid Fire
- Raheem Mostert finishes as a top-three fantasy running back. Last week he only played on 40% of the 49ers offensive snaps against the Rams, but was given 18 touches.
- Corey Davis finishes with more PPR fantasy points than A.J. Brown. Davis has accumulated 16 targets, 13 receptions, and 250 receiving yards over the last three games. Those numbers are eerily similar to Brown.
Do you agree or disagree with these bold predictions? Let me know what you think on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
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