Golf Betting System
Have you bet on PGA Tour golf players but found it difficult to be profitable from tournament to tournament? If so, you’re certainly not alone as many gamblers who make wagers on golf have a lot more misses than hits. Making successful fantasy golf picks is a combination of art and science – you need to learn how to blend the two together for effective and consistent PGA fantasy picks that win. Golf by nature is a volatile sport for players and gamblers alike, but there are a few tactics you can harness to improve the odds of winning more bets more often.
There are no guarantees that you will be profitable either short or long-term when betting on golf or other sports for that matter, but by following the advice below you will improve your probability of enjoying success every time you commit to a player.
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Invest Into Fantasy Tools and Analytics
Golf is very much a data-driven sport, so to make bets that you can genuinely feel confident in, you should allocate some of your overall budget towards fantasy golf tools and analytics. Sometimes player success is smoke and mirrors as some players can get by with a hot putter, for example, for a few tournaments, but you want to see positive strokes gained outside of putting, and even if the putter isn’t hot then good results are still being locked down. Results are important to look at of course, but you want to learn how those are being achieved to understand if they are sustainable or if a player is perhaps just relying on luck and is due for a downturn soon.
Hedge, Hedge, and Hedge Some More
Bet on More Than Just Outright Wins – Look at Top 5 and Top 10 Odds Too
If you exclusively bet on outright winners on the PGA Tour, you will have a hard time being successful. One bad hole by a player throughout 72 holes can mean the difference between winning and finishing 20th, or even higher in the final standings. Look at Tiger Woods who had a 10 on a par 3 in his final round at the 2020 Masters – mind you, it didn’t take away a victory but if he just had a par he would have finished T13, not T38, and more betters would have won money on top 20 wagers. You often hear of people who bet on golf proclaim that they just won a bunch of money when a player won a tournament, but how often do you hear when they lose?! Never is the answer to that question. There were a good number of people who won money by betting Dustin Johnson to win the Masters this year, and it seems like an obvious bet now given his form at the time and his strong record at Augusta, but bets are often much more difficult to pinpoint on any given week. When making an outright bet you will typically also want to bet that same player to finish top 5 or 10 as well – in a sense, it’s a hedge and a smart one at that.
When a player looks poised to win a tournament I’ve often seen that in the end he places top 5 or 10, but doesn’t win. Usually, the most successful player on the PGA Tour will win three times a season. Now if you were to bet on that same player every time he plays during the season, let’s say 20 tournaments at $10 each time that’s $200. If he wins 3 times at odds that average 10 to 1, you will win $300 for a profit of $100. That’s a base case scenario if you pick that one player who will find the most seasonal success in terms of wins. Now take that same player and instead of betting $10 each tournament as an outright win and splitting it up to do $5 as an outright win and $5 as a top 10 and your profit margin will be higher and you will have protected yourself against losses in the process. Betting in this fashion is called an each way, and most professionals adopt this betting philosophy. Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson each had three wins last season, the most on the PGA Tour, and additionally, Thomas had 10 top 10’s and Johnson had 7 top 10’s. If you bet both of those golfers every tournament on the each way last season, you would have done quite well for yourself and your bankroll.
Watch, Listen to and Read Content to See Who the Top Analysts are Betting on
There are a few golf analysts that I put the most stock in on any given week. It’s easy to follow dozens of them and take all of those opinions into account but you are better off going with a core group of 5-10 and go all-in on what they are saying. Personally, my favorite fantasy golf analysts are Rick Gehman, Pat Mayo, Ben Rasa, Rob Bolton, Greg Ducharme, and Geoff Fienberg has a knack for picking major tournament winners so I like hearing his picks as well. I do watch and read more fantasy golf content, but those names I mentioned are the ones that I put most of my trust in for determining which players I like the most from tournament to tournament in combination with stats and analytics. Ultimately though, you will be making golf bets with your gut after you take in all of the stats, opinions, and analysis, so you have to learn how to trust your gut and do what feels right.
Bet Weeks Or Even Months Ahead for Potentially Way Better Odds
The most successful golf betting professionals have already placed bets (called futures) on some or all of the 2021 major tournaments. They will look at the odds on a weekly or even daily basis to see how they are changing based on a golfer’s current play and make bets when numbers look more favorable over time. If you are thinking that Dustin Johnson is going to repeat at the Masters next year, you likely won’t want to bet him right now because his number will be low and won’t offer much of a payout. However, let’s say DJ starts 2021 off in a slow way and is looking like how he did from mid-June to mid-July when he had two missed cuts and a withdraw – a period like that might be the time to look at how his betting odds are getting more favorable/longer and jump on a bet or two.
I understand that you might be thinking to yourself that you don’t want to make bets that can’t possibly payoff for a few months, but that’s how many outright bets can really be big winners when the time comes. Futures are semi-long-term investments that feel riskier than betting the week of, but, for example, if you get a player at 36 to 1 as opposed to 12 to 1 the week of, and it hits, then you stand to make 3x your money and look like a genius. Decide which player(s) you are bullish on months down the road, build up some courage when the odds improve when players go through a cold stretch, and dip into the futures market to see what kind of value deals you can secure.
Betting on golf is challenging and can be a frustrating experience, but by using the tips and insights above you can better your odds to have a profitable track record for the long-term. Best of luck with your future golf bets, and happy holidays to you and your family ahead!
