The fantasy football stats we see show up on the box score and in our fantasy leagues result from many things. A player’s usage, opportunities, team context, and game script all affect what happens on the field. To that end, after a week’s worth of games, it is helpful to look deeper into the advanced statistics to see why certain things happen the way they did. Hopefully, this will help us better predict what will come in the future.
This weekly piece will examine several of the most interesting advanced stats from the previous slate of games. We will use them to determine whether what we saw in the box score is a signal or noise regarding what to expect in future weeks.
Let’s dive into the tenth week of games and see what we can learn.
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Jayden Daniels had a 64% Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP%)
Why is it important that Jayden Daniels had a 64% expected completion percentage when he actually only completed 50% of his passes? According to NFL Next Gen Stats, that 14% discrepancy was the largest in the league during Week 10, and it confirms the perception that Daniels was a very accurate quarterback and should have been much more accurate against the Steelers in Week 10. Daniels finished the game with just 202 passing yards, five rushing yards, and no scores. That led to a lot of “Has the league figured out Jayden Daniels?” commentary this week, but the reality is he was just unlucky.
We should play Daniels confidently in a game tonight against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a player who had at least 350 total yards of offense or two touchdowns in his last five healthy games prior to Week 10. The Steelers are a menace against quarterbacks and provide a ton of pressure. During the last three weeks, Philadelphia is just 24th in the league in sack rate (5.8%), so Jayden Daniels should see plenty of clean pockets and opportunities to gain yards with his legs in Week 11.
Calvin Ridley Leads the League With a 34.0% Target Share the Last Three Weeks
With nine more targets in Week 10, that raised Calvin Ridley’s target share to 34% in Weeks 8-10, which leads all wide receivers and tight ends. He has 32 total targets during that span which trails only Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers. Those targets, of course, have come from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, so it’s not like Joe Burrow is back there throwing Ridley the ball. But what he might lose on inefficient quarterback play, he is certainly making up for in volume.
Over the last three weeks, Ridley now has exactly 20 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns. With DeAndre Hopkins out of town, he is emerging as one of the league’s top target hogs and has quite a favorable schedule down the stretch if fantasy managers want to make a play for him before their league’s trade deadline this week. In Weeks 12-17, Tennessee plays Jacksonville (twice), Indianapolis, Houston, Washington, and Cincinnati. It doesn’t get much better than that for wide receivers.
Christian McCaffrey Played on 87.5% of San Francisco’s Snaps
Any doubts or concerns that Christian McCaffrey managers might have had going into Week 10 were quickly put to rest when McCaffrey had 19 touches and played on almost 88% of the 49ers’ snaps. It might be a small consolation prize for those who had to stash him in their injured spot for the first two and a half months of the season, but at least we now know that McCaffrey will be the workhorse again from this point forward. In the game against Tamp Bay last week, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo each had one rushing attempt and neither caught a pass, showing that is the full CMC show going forward.
Last season, McCaffrey had nine games with more than 85% of snaps played, so this is common usage for the most versatile back in the league. Is there a chance his Achilles injury resurfaces? Of course. But it looks like the 49ers played it safe with his healing and rehab timeline in order for him to be able to take on a full workload upon his return. Jordan Mason is a safe drop candidate now unless CMC reaggravates something in the weeks ahead.
Kareem Hunt had Eight Opportunities in the Red Zone
No other running back had more opportunities in the red zone last week than Kareem Hunt. Hunt had four rushing attempts and four targets in that area, which is an important development for two reasons. Number one, his role in that area has increased since he signed with Kansas City earlier in the season, and he is becoming a weapon in that part of the field. That boosts his stock for at least one more week in a potentially high-scoring game against the Buffalo Bills that the Chiefs want to win to increase their chances at a homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
The second thing this does is give us a preview for when Isiah Pachevo potentially returns in Week 12. After missing more than eight weeks with a broken leg, Pacheco’s practice window has opened and he might return in one week’s time. Last season Pacheco had 73 red zone opportunities, which was almost 50 more than anyone else on the team in 2023. Pacheco had eight red zone looks in his first two weeks before his injury. In a season where the Chiefs have minimized their passing to some degree (19th in the league in pass play percentage), having Hunt this week and Pacheco moving forward should pay off with huge fantasy numbers.
Will Dissly Saw 0.43 Targets per Route Run
Among tight ends with at least 10 routes run last week, no player had more targets than routes run than Los Angeles Chargers’ tight end Will Dissly. He ended the day with six targets and a 33% target share from Justin Herbert, and this is starting to become a trend with Hayden Hurst not playing right now. In three of the past four weeks, Dissly has at least five catches and he has 27 targets in that span as well. Herbet’s target tree is starting to narrow to Dissly, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey. That’s become his circle of trust as we speed into the second half of the NFL season.
The only thing that’s missing from Dissly’s season are the touchdowns. He has none despite 33 receptions for 272 yards this year. With the increase in targets, it can only be a matter of time before the scores will come. He has four red zone targets in the last four weeks where he had just one over the first six weeks of the year. Doing a quick scan, Dissly is barely rostered in any fantasy leagues across a number of sites. He should be a priority pick-up as the Chargers continue to prioritize the passing game in recent weeks.
