Fantasy-Relevant Takeaway’s using Advanced WR Metrics
The 2020 season has had its fair share of difficulties but has managed to roll along, mostly unaffected. Any fantasy football managers who are still actively reading analytics articles into December means they’ve managed to have a successful season and are making preparation for the impending postseason.
Week 13 is the final regular-season slate for most fantasy leagues. Whether you’re simply playing for playoff seeding or still have one more win to secure a postseason berth, the Week 13 regular-season finale is a must-win. FantasyData’s WR Advanced Efficiency Metrics can provide fantasy managers with a competitive edge not only for this week but throughout the upcoming fantasy playoffs.
Using those metrics, here are some of the interesting takeaways through the first dozen weeks and how fantasy managers can use that data to win in the month of December.
Allen Robinson (Chicago Bears) – Even though Allen Robinson enters Week 13 as the No.13 wide receiver in terms of fantasy points per game, 2020 still feels like a disappointment with all the potential points that have been left on the table due to subpar quarterback play. Even though Chicago’s offense is third in team pass plays per game and Robinson has run the third-most routes (439) of any player, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky have hurt Robinson’s ceiling. Chicago’s signal-callers have combined to accumulate an 88.8 QB Rating when targeting A-Rob, which ranks 74th and Robinson also has a middling (-3.2) production premium, which ranks 52nd. Despite those struggles, Robinson has still been a tremendous source of targets and receptions and is poised to post his best numbers of the entire season this month, right when fantasy managers need them the most. Check out Robinson’s rest-of-season schedule:
Allen Robinson’s fantasy playoff schedule:
Week 13 vs. Detroit
Week 14 vs. Houston
Week 15 at Minnesota
Week 16 at Jacksonville🚀
— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) December 1, 2020
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) – Week 12 showcased just how dynamic of a weapon that Deebo Samuel is with the ball in his hands. Despite missing six games, Samuel is still eighth with 347 yards after catch, yards per route run (2.48), and average cushion afforded (8.8). This all comes with Samuel mostly being targeted at or even behind the line of scrimmage. Samuel ranks 110th in air yards share (6.9) and 113th with a 2.0 yards per target average. Amazingly, Samuel has actually racked up (-29) completed air yards but yet leads the NFL with 13 yards after the catch per reception. If Kyle Shanahan is ever able to acquire a quarterback with the ability to thrive in his system, Samuel could develop into one of the league’s deadliest big-play threats.
Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Fantasy managers who preserved through his six-game absence were undoubtedly relieved to have their prized wideout back for the playoff run but can Thomas even be depended on now with Taysom Hill under center? Hill’s first start, which came at home against a haggard Atlanta secondary, resulted in an excellent 9/104/0 line from Thomas. But last week’s innocuous 4/50/0 line in Denver was more concerning. As with most things, the truth is probably in the middle but there are some signs that Thomas is still the dominant player he’s always been. Thomas’s 48.2% air yards share leads the entire NFL and he’s 7th in contested-catch rate. He also still has elite hands, as showcased by a 95.8% true catch rate which ranks third among all wideouts. As luck would have it, the Saints travel to Atlanta in Week 13 for a rematch with that Falcons’ secondary that resulted in Thomas’s best game of the season just two weeks ago.
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – A quarterback change hasn’t affected Tee Higgins quite as much. After leading Cincinnati in targets after Joe Burron exited Week 11 with a season-ending knee injury, Higgins reeled in all five of his targets from Brandon Allen and surpassed double-digit fantasy points for the eighth time in nine games. And through 11 games, Higgins is one of only two wide receivers (with Juju Smith-Schuster) in the NFL with 60-plus targets and zero drops. That’s doubly impressive when you consider that Higgins ranks 5th in deep-ball targets (19), and 13th in air yards (13).
Allen Lazard (Green Bay Packers) – After missing six games with a core injury, Allen Lazard has seen 10 targets in two games while playing just 53% of Green Bay’s snaps. Lazard found the end-zone against the Bears and should start to play a larger role in the Packers’ offense as he is further removed from his stint on IR. Before that core injury, Lazard was in on 88.2% of the team’s snaps and averaged over 13 fantasy points per game. Overall, Lazard’s 2.53 fantasy points per target figure ranks 4th among all wideouts and the 143.3 QB Rating that Aaron Rodgers boasts when targeting Lazard is second in the league. Widely available on the waiver wire after missing a substantial part of the season, Lazard has the potential to be an excellent WR3 down the stretch, with weekly WR2 upside.
Keke Coutee (Houston Texans) – The Texans are suddenly thin at wide receiver after releasing Kenny Stills and suspension of Will Fuller, who will miss the remainder of the season. Slot receiver Randall Cobb is also on IR with a toe injury, which is going to open the door for third-year veteran Keke Coutee to start taking a ton of snaps. Coutee didn’t do much in the first half of the season but has played over half of Houston’s snaps in each of the past two games. 61.3% of Coutee’s snaps have come inside and QB Deshaun Watson has racked up a solid 112.3 QB Rating when targeting his new slot man. While Coutee is guaranteed to see a big increase in playing time and opportunities, Houston’s schedule over the next three weeks (vs. Indianapolis twice and at Chicago) is brutal before ending with the Bengals in championship week.
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills) – With John Brown (calf) on IR, Gabriel Davis played a team-leading 60 snaps (97%) against the Chargers and snagged 3-of-4 targets for a season-high 79 yards. Davis also scored his fourth TD of the season, although it came on a trick play from slot receiver Cole Beasley. Still, Davis is assured of plenty of playing time for at least the next two weeks while Brown heals. Even with a lowly 12.7% target rate through 12 weeks, Davis is 15th in the NFL with both 16.1 yards per reception and 10.1 yards per target. With a league-best 2.44 yards of separation per route, Davis excels at creating space and getting open downfield. And even with Beasley’s presence, over 40% of Davis’s routes have come from the slot, so look for the Bills to continue finding creative ways to look for Davis deep, and for Davis to put up quite usable fantasy production in the next couple of weeks.
David Moore (Seattle Seahawks) – No player has taken more advantage of opportunities than Seattle’s David Moore, who leads all wide receivers with 2.79 fantasy points per target. While Moore helps his own cause by creating a ton of separation (2.24 yards per route which ranks 6th), Russell Wilson has been extraordinarily accurate when targeting his third wideout. Moore’s 8.09 target accuracy ranks 4th in the NFL and his target premium ranks 5th. Even more impressive, Wilson has racked up a league-leading 146.8 QB Rating when targeting Moore. The problem? Volume. The Seahawks prefer to keep the ball on the ground first and Moore has only played 48.4% of Seattle’s snaps and has started to cede work to Freddie Swayne. Moore has also run only 202 routes (84th) and ranks 107th with a 9.0% target share. While he’s been highly productive with his limited looks, Moore remains nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR5/6 worth a look in only the deepest of fantasy leagues.
Devin Duvernay (Baltimore Ravens) – A third-round rookie out of Texas, Devin Duvernay was one of my favorite dynasty stashes this offseason.
https://twitter.com/JodySmithNFL/status/1275239838581690368?s=20
While Duvernay has only played 31.7% of snaps as Baltimore’s No. 4 receivers, he has shown the potential ability to take over as the club’s slot receiver once Willie Snead, who is a pending free agent, departs. Duvernay has produced 0.31 fantasy points per route run, which is the exact same figure that Marquise Brown has managed in the league’s 31st-ranked offense in pass player per game. He also is averaging 1.85 fantasy points per target, which would is tied for 42nd. Willie Snead will probably be back in the slot this week, but if he remains out, Duvernay offers some appeal as a low cost option against a horrendous Dallas secondary. The real appeal for dynasty owners is to stash Duvernay here in the final month of the season, as he has the potential to play a significant role for the Ravens in 2021.
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