Bold NFL Predictions
Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and that could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, advanced metrics, coaching changes, and other information. With this in mind here are 10 bold predictions for Week 10.
Quick Links
- Fantasy Football Predictions
- Week 10 Player Projections
- Advanced Metrics
- Advanced Efficiency Metrics
- Red Zone Data
- NFL Snap Counts
- Third Down Stats
Derek Carr Finishes as the Fantasy QB1
Did you know that Carr has averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game over his last 24 active games? He’s led the Raiders to a 5-3 record behind four wins on the road and handed the Chiefs their only loss. Carr has the tenth highest true passer rating (102.9). This rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Carr has thrown for 2,002 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He has 30 pass attempts that traveled 20 yards or farther in the air. Carr has a completion percentage of 46.7 percent on those throws. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders lean more on their receiving weapons for the rest of the season. Carr has a plus matchup against the Broncos this week with a very high point total. Denver has allowed an average of 20.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The Broncos have allowed monster performances from Matt Ryan (25) and Justin Herbert (24) over its last games. Carr has the potential to finish as the fantasy QB1 in Week 10.
Lamar Jackson Finishes Outside of the Top-15
Jackson has only finished as a QB1 in 50 percent of his games this season. Last season he finished as a QB1 in 87% of his games averaging 30 fantasy points per game. The Ravens offense has dropped off significantly from last season. Jackson has been more inaccurate this season and is currently ranked 24th in true passer rating. His receivers also have nine dropped passes this season. Jackson faces a Patriots defense that has only allowed 14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. It’s in the realm of possibility that he faceplants on the road in New England.
Duke Johnson Finishes as the RB1
David Johnson’s status is up in the air, but multiple signs point to him being out this week. David Johnson has a snap share of 74% and an opportunity share of 70.7%. This is the type of workload that Duke Johnson can expect this week against a Browns defense that has allowed an average of 23 PPR fantasy points per game to runnings backs this season. Cleveland’s defense has allowed two 100-yard rushers in the last three games. This matchup has the second-highest point totals of the Sunday games. Duke Johnson will be actively involved regardless of game flow.
Antonio Gibson Finishes Outside of the Top-30
J.D. McKissic is currently ranked fourth among running backs this season in targets and third in receiving yards. Gibson has only played on nine of Washington’s 105 third downs this season. He’s only been provided 20 touches in a game once this season and doesn’t have the complete trust of Washington’s coaching staff yet. Washington faces a Lions defense that has allowed an NFL-high five receiving touchdowns and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs (413) this season. McKissic will be more involved than many think with quarterback Alex Smith under center.
Antonio Brown Finishes as a Top-5 Receiver
Mike Evans is the Buccaneers’ all-time career receiving yards leader, but he’s becoming an afterthought in Tampa Bay’s offense this season. Evans is on pace to set career lows in receptions and receiving yards with Tom Brady under center. Brown was targeted five times last week against the Saints. He caught three of them for 31 yards. All of them resulted in first downs. Browns faces a Panthers defense this week that has allowed an average of 11 targets, seven receptions, 103 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns, and 20 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receiver scorers over its last five games.
Danny Amendola Finishes as a WR2
Last week Amendola caught seven of 10 targets for 77 yards against the Vikings. He leads the Lions’ receivers with 24 targets in the three games Kenny Golladay has missed. Marvin Jones has accumulated 18 and T.J. Hockenson has 17 over that time frame. Amendola has averaged 50 receiving yards per game this season and could be leaned on even more in Week 10 against Washington. Hockenson is dealing with a toe injury which could open up additional targets. Amendola has the most favorable cornerback matchup of any of the Lions pass catchers.
Jarvis Landry Finishes as a WR1
Did you know that Landry led all Browns’ receivers in targets (11) and receiving yards (52) in the team’s first game without Odell Beckham? He has a great matchup against the Texans secondary this week. Houston’s defense has allowed the seventh most PPR fantasy points per game (42) to wide receivers. Landry operates primarily out of the slot. The Texans have allowed an NFL high 144.5 passer rating to slot receivers this season. Slot receivers have averaged five or more receptions against the Texans secondary. Landry is well-positioned to exceed expectations of fantasy managers in Week 10.
Gerald Everett Finishes as the TE1
Everett was targeted nine times back in Week 8. This tied for the second most targets behind Cooper Kupp. The Rams are coming off of their bye week against the Seahawks. Everett and Tyler Higbee will continue to split targets. The Seahawks and Rams have a point total of 55 points. Everett could thrive against a Seattle defense that has allowed 128 PPR fantasy points per game this season.
Salvon Ahmed Finishes as an RB2
Ahmed was on the Dolphins practice squad and made an immediate impact because of the team’s injuries. He rushed for 38 rushing yards on seven rushing attempts. Ahmed also played more offensive snaps (28) than Jordan Howard (21). He’s in a great position against the Chargers to outperform his Week 10 ranking. Top running back scorers against Los Angeles over the last five games have averaged 18.6 touches, 107.6 total yards, and 20 PPR fantasy points per game.
Josh Reynolds Leads All The Rams Receivers in Fantasy Points
Reynolds caught four of nine targets for 44 yards against the Dolphins back in Week 8. He’s played 71 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season. Reynolds continues to see a steady dose of targets and air yards. He has a very favorable matchup against Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers. Quarterback Jared Goff has a passer rating of 94.7 when targeting Reynolds.
Do you agree or disagree with these bold predictions? Let me know what you think on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
