Fantasy Football WR Advanced Metrics Report: Week 10

Travis Fulgham (Philadelphia Eagles) – Fulgham wasn’t drafted in many fantasy leagues but has emerged from the embers of the Eagles’ injury-riddled receiving corps to become a legitimate player. Because he came out of nowhere, many people still feel like Fulgham is a fluke, but FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics indicate otherwise. In terms of raw yards per route run, Fulgham ranks 6th in the league, behind only Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Robby Anderson. With 109.6 air yards per game, Fulgham ranks third, behind only DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley. Fulgham also has not dropped any of his 44 targets, giving him the third-most targets in football without a drop. Even if/when Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson ever return to the lineup, Fulgham has emerged as one of Carson Wentz’s favorite targets and is a good bet to keep posting weekly WR2 numbers down the stretch. 

D.J. Chark (Jacksonville Jaguars) – So far, so good in Chark’s first game with sixth-round Oregon State rookie Jake Luton under center. Chark hauled 7-of-12 targets for a season-high 146 yards against Houston’s ghastly secondary. Speaking of lousy play, Chark is still putting up solid numbers despite ranking outside the top-50 in FantasyData’s Target Accuracy metric, which measures the quality of the throw. In this case, Garnder Minshew’s accuracy woes have likely cost Chark significant production but he has still posted top-30 figures in air yards per reception and per game. Earlier this week it looked like a good week to actually fade Chark due to a less-than-ideal matchup against top Green Bay coverage cornerback Jaire Alexander, but Alexander has yet to be cleared from the league’s concussion protocol and the Packers have precious little depth behind the future Pro Bowler. If Alexander sits Week 10 out, fire up Chark as a top-20 fantasy option. 

Denzel Mims (New York Jets) – In just three games, Mims has flashed enough upside to look like the real deal in New York. Despite being hampered by a pathetic offense, Mims almost never comes off the field and has made some acrobatic catches. Even with such limited playing time, Mims already leads the Jets’ receiving corps in contested targets (6) and is generating 2.0 yards of separation, which also leads the club. The Jets are on bye in Week 10 but have a favorable schedule starting in Week 11, which includes the Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, and Seahawks in the upcoming month. 

Sterling Shepard (New York Giants) – Depending on your tolerance for risk, Sterling Shepard might actually be the best fantasy option in New York’s unstable passing attack. Darius Slayton has way more ceiling, but Slayton is mainly being featured downfield. Slayton boasts a 12.9-yard average target distance and 750 air yards, while Shepard and Golden Tate both are at 7.2 average target distance. However, Shepard has the highest target share (20.2%) of the trio and 6 red-zone targets in 5 games, compared to Slayton’s 8 in 9 contests. But Shepard has battled injuries and is once again dealing with a toe ailment ahead of Week 10. If he suits up against the Eagles, Shepard is the best bet to lead the Giants in targets as Slayton is expected to be shadowed by Eagles’ CB Darius Slay.

Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears) – Poor quarterback play will always cap Darnell Mooney’s ceiling, but there is still a chance that Mooney is on the verge of a blowup game. Both of Mooney’s touchdowns this season have come from red-zone throws inside of 15 yards, but where he really excels is as a downfield compliment to Allen Robinson. Mooney is 14th among all NFL wideouts with 663 air yards, 9th with 25.5 air yard per reception, and 5th with a 15.4-yard average target distance. Throw in a Week 10 matchup with a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wideouts and allows the third-most yards per play in the NFC and you have pretty goods odds of a strong fantasy game from Mooney. 

Josh Reynolds (Los Angeles Rams) – Over LA’s past three games, Reynolds has played 88% of the team’s snaps and caught 10 balls for 121 yards, and scored a pair of touchdowns on an 18% target share. Reynolds actually leads the Rams in contested targets (12) and overall yards per target (8.5). With 22 targets over those past three games, Reynolds is becoming increasingly fantasy-relevant and has a phenomenal Week 10 matchup at home against a Seattle secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to the position, including 9 100-yard games. 

Allen Lazard (Green Bay Packers) – After missing five games with a core muscle injury, Allen Lazard is nearing a return and will add some much-needed credibility to Green Bay’s receiving corps. Lazard should immediately take targets away from inefficient Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whose 17.1% drop rate in the worst in the league. Lazard had an 88.9% snap rate in his three games while running 31 pass routes per contest. He also played over one-third of his snaps out of the slot and boasted a 12.4 average target distance, which would place inside the league’s top-30. If Lazard is active in Week 10, he’ll also get a tasty matchup against struggling Jacksonville CB Tre Herndon, giving him instant WR3/4 value. 

K.J. Hamler (Denver Broncos) – After a feeling-out period, the Broncos seem to have found the best usage for their young receiving corps. With Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick stretching the field, K.J. Hamler has settled in as the main slot weapon and comes off a career-best 6/75/0 line on 10 targets against the Falcons. Hamler has now run 44.3% of his routes from the slot and is getting very good at creating space. Hamler ranks 6th in average cushion (4.75) and 2nd with 2.68 yards of separation. With QB Drew Lock showing gradual improvement, Hamler is a name to keep in mind as a possible WR4/5 option down the stretch. 

David Moore (Seattle Seahawks) – Moore continues to be an under-appreciated asset that is sitting out unclaimed on most league’s waiver wire. Moore enters Week 10 with more fantasy points scored than regular starters like Marvin Jones, Jarvis Landry, and John Brown and has racked up 3-plus grabs in Seattle’s past three games. Moore is playing only 44% of Seattle’s snaps on the season but leads all NFL wide receiver with 3.14 fantasy points per target. In games where the Seahawks are projected to be involved in high-scoring track meets, Moore offers enough upside to be a decent, but volatile option. 

Jakeem Grant (Miami Dolphins) – With Preston Williams (foot) on IR, Jakeem Grant should be the next man up. Grant was playing about one-third of the Dolphins’ snaps but that spiked last week after Williams was carted off the field. In that game, Grant hauled in 4-of-5 targets and should regularly see that kind of volume at a minimum. Of all of Miami’s wideouts, Grant’s 2.05 yards of separation is significantly higher than Williams (1.0) and even DeVante Parker (1.05). In addition to getting open, Grant has a team-leading 93.3% True Catch Rate and has even secured all three of his contested targets. He’s a sneaky waiver wire claim who might just deliver decent PPR numbers over the next month.