DraftKings NFL Picks Week 10: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

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QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen
• PIVOTS: Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Jared Goff
• PUNTS: Drew Lock

Aaron Rodgers is in a “too good to be true” matchup this week against the worst-rated (by far) pass defense by Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Based on my Def FPA workbook, the Jags allow the 3rd-highest fantasy scoring bump to QBs. Rodgers and Adams are going to be chalky this week with so many ways to pay down elsewhere, but those lines are going to have to find other ways to be unique because if they’re all using Mike Davis, Pope, and Reynolds to also pay up for Kamara, then the chalk build for this week should look something like this:

I’m going to explore other Packer combos to get around the chalk, perhaps rostering Jones/Adams to save $800 and capture the majority of the skill position scoring that way, then look to get another QB with 25 point potential for less. The Bills/Cardinals game is the “money” game of this slate and both QBs will be popular. The Cardinals do not have as soft of a defense as Seattle does so I do not expect Josh Allen to throw for 400 yards again but he’s well within his limits to hit 300 yards in this one. The Cards gave up 35 yards on the ground to the only scrambler they’ve faced this year (last week against Tua), which provides another avenue for Allen to hit as one of the top-3 QBs on this slate. The highest-priced (and likeliest to be QB1) is Kyler Murray. I like Murray here but can’t help but wonder just how many more fantasy points he’ll put up over Allen to want to spend all the way up for him. Since I typically play 20 lines a week, I’ll have some Murray exposure and I’m thinking that it might not be the worst idea to play Murray uncorrelated to get an advantage on anyone else playing him and hoping for the game stack to hit. This could very well be a double rushing TD game for Murray and the passing gets spread around to the point none of the receiving options are must-haves. The same could be said about Allen after seeing three of his WRs all post 17 points or more with Diggs topping out at a respectable (but not a must-have) 23.8 points. It would provide a unique opportunity to pass the lines in big field tournaments that adhere to strict stacking standards. 

The Giants are doing well to shut down their opponent’s running games this year (5th-least yards allowed) and have already held the Eagles to under 100 yards once. In that game, Carson Wentz had his best game of 2020 throwing 43 times for 359 yards and 3 total TDs. The Eagles passing game is getting healthier which should allow Wentz to put up another 30 point game if this game plays out the same way as it did a few weeks ago. Wentz is another QB I would consider playing uncorrelated. The Eagles are getting Jeffery and Goedert back this week to compete with Fulgham, Reagor, and Ward for opportunities. Wentz won’t be hard to stack though, since all of his weapons are cheap. The idea of playing an angry Tom Brady this week appeals to me in game theory. Brady is coming off a blowout loss and will be ready to make up for it this week. He’s got one of the more favorable OL vs DL matchups on the slate for pass protection and the receivers are another week healthier (and assimilated into the offense – AB), and while CAR is not that easy of a pass defense to target, this will (hopefully) knock off some ownership numbers from Brady and the receivers here. If playing Brady, the order I prefer to stack him with a pass-catchers goes Evans (squeaky wheel game?), Brown (most explosive pass-catcher), Gronk (old reliable), Godwin (if his hand is still in a splint, if not, he moves ahead of Gronk). Sean McVay has had an extra week to prepare for the Seahawks secondary that has been getting roasted by opposing offenses, allowing 362 passing yards per game (most in the league). Jared Goff isn’t throwing a lot this year but could be busy here with the Seattle defense ranking #4 vs the run. Goff has the DraftKings 3 point yardage bonus well within his reach, as well as a possible 3 TD game. 

Drew Lock was a steal last week against the Falcons struggling secondary, finishing 4th among the main slate QBs on DraftKings. This week will be a little tougher in a divisional game in Las Vegas but I still like the matchup. Denver plays at the 5th fastest pace compared to the Raiders at 25th. Against the good offensive opponents Denver has faced, they have fallen behind early and will play closer to that #5 tempo than when they have a lead and it drops to 22nd. The Raiders are a good offense that will keep the game going for both sides and they may be able to control the time of possession, forcing Lock to play aggressive early in the game. Lock has three consecutive games with at least 40 pass attempts with each game higher than the last. The Raiders are allowing an average of 36.1 pass attempts per game on the season, however, 3 games out of the Raiders last 4 they faced an average of 43.3 pass attempts. The only game that didn’t reach 40+ was the bad weather game in Cleveland. Lock should get the have volume here but he will need to improve on Denver’s 31st ranked Drive Success Rate to beat the Raiders, who are allowing the 7th-most passing yards per game.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: None
• PIVOTS: Aaron Jones, James Robinson, Nick Chubb, James Conner
• PUNTS: J.D. McKissic, Duke Johnson*, Mike Davis, Troymaine Pope*, Matt Breida, DeeJay Dallas*

One way to leverage the probable Rodgers/Adams chalk would be to pivot to the running game with Aaron Jones, who is also a part of the passing game. Jones has a range of 4 to 8 weekly targets with 5 in each of the last 3 games (2 of which he was not fully healthy). The Jags are funneling 22% of their targets to RBs and are allowing 2 or more rushing TDs in half of their games (1.38 TDs per game average). If Luton can’t keep the Rodgers led passing game interested, then Jones could be salting this one away on the ground early on. There are some concerns that Jones could get rested for Jamaal Williams if the score gets out of hand. Hopefully, if that happens, it means Jones will have scored 20+ points already. James Robinson was a bit disappointing last week after not catching any passes and failing to get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings, coming up a yard short. However, if Jacksonville wants to hang around in this game, then they’re going to have to control the ball on the ground. They have a favorable OL vs DL matchup but may not be able to hold the ball long enough per drive to make this work. Green Bay scores a lot and they play at the slowest pace in the NFL, so the Jags will need to score early and not let the game get away from them too soon. If they can do that, then Robinson has a shot to hit that 100-yards and score a TD or two. Jacksonville ranks 20th in drive success rate (per Football Outsiders) which puts them toward the middle of the pack, making this a possibility. The Browns are coming off their bye week and will welcome the return of Nick Chubb and stud RG Wyatt Teller. Hunt filled in respectably for Chubb but it was clear Hunt was not at the level Chubb is running in this offense. Chubb will be fresh for this matchup against the league’s worst run defense and should get the majority of the carries while Hunt siphons away some work, especially in the passing game. It’s hard to want to roster an RB that doesn’t get targets but Chubb has two games above 27 DK points this year and has by far the best OL vs DL matchup of the slate. James Conner was a disappointing play last week. I was watching that game trying to figure out why the Steelers decided to go pass-heavy against a team everyone has thrashed on the ground. Then we saw Ben’s knee buckle and he limped through the rest of the game. Then we saw Ben go on the Covid list. I’m thinking the Steelers try to play this one as run-heavy as possible to protect Ben’s knee and because Ben has not been practicing with the team. If Ben doesn’t play, the same thing applies. Don’t put the ball in Rudolph’s hands for the win. Let Conner and the RBs control the game. Give Conner his 20+ opportunities and take advantage of playing against the 4th-most friendly run defense in the league.

J.D McKissic was the RB3 on last week’s main slate. Unfortunately, I rostered his teammate Antonio Gibson. This week I’ll probably play both of these guys but McKissic has shown a solid floor with the number of targets he gets in competitive games, including last week’s spike to 14. Detroit is the most generous defense to opposing RBs, allowing a league-leading bump of 10.1 fantasy points per game to the position with 1.63 rushing TDs allowed to go along the 2.13 passing/receiving TDs. There are three “D. Johnsons” listed at RB between the Texans and Browns and the one I’ll have interest in will be Duke Johnson as long as David Johnson is out (hence the asterisk). Duke will have some former employer ideas as he returns to Cleveland to show them he can carry the load as a full time back. Houston has the 3rd-lowest rush attempts per game but Duke will get 4 to 5 targets to buoy his floor. DraftKings seems to have dropped the ball on pricing for the Carolina backfield this week. Mike Davis is minimum priced for the RB position which is going to make him uber-chalk considering the number of touches he’ll see with CMC likely out. I’ll probably have some exposure but I don’t like that I’ll be playing a guy facing one of the toughest defenses for an RB to post a good score against. The Bucs defense just held Kamara to 15.9 last week, Gallman to 13.2 the week before, Jacobs to 6.1 the week before that, and Aaron Jones only had 13.1 four weeks ago. So, while there is a chance Davis hits 3 times (or more) his salary, it’s just not going to be that special of a score. Keep in mind, whatever builds you come up with that require the use of Davis to achieve will likely be what the rest of the field is doing with Davis in their lines.

The Chargers may be down Justin Jackson this week but will have Troymaine Pope back in the lineup. Pope had a solid game sniping touches from Jackson and Kelley two weeks ago. There’s no guarantee it will happen again, but if that carries over here and all he has to compete with for touches is Kelley and Ballage, then he could be a solid pivot away from the Mike Davis min-priced chalk. Not sure I’ll go there myself, but it’s an idea. There is also a former employer narrative at work with Kalen Ballage in this game. He led the Chargers backfield opportunities last week so they may give him another run at being the lead back. If Matt Breida is healthy this week, he’ll take on the lead RB role for Miami, assuming this article about the Dolphins wanting to feature him more still stands. Breida was solid for the 49ers over the past two years, when healthy, which has always been the problem for him. He’s another idea to pivot away from the Mike Davis chalk, and one I like better than Pope. DeeJay Dallas is another cheaper option that may not have much competition for snaps with all the Seattle RBs not practicing, or practicing in a limited capacity. He’s only interesting if he’s the only one or two healthy backs on game day.

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Terry McLaurin, Davante Adams, Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen
• PIVOTS: Jarvis Landry, Panthers WRs, Tim Patrick, Christian Kirk, John Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Robert Woods
• PUNTS: Alshon Jeffery, K.J. Hamler, Jakeem Grant, Richie James, Josh Reynolds

Terry McLaurin has a higher target per game rate than Hopkins and Cooper. Congrats if you’ve rostered him the past two weeks at the previous low salary, but he’s still too cheap because he plays for the WFT. This may be the last week he’s not priced $7k and he has a pretty good matchup against a Lions defense that allows 2 or more passing/receiving TDs every week. With little competition from his teammates for targets, he should be busy here. Davante Adams is obvious chalk this week and he very well could put up another 40 point game…but will he have to? It’s going to be hard for Jacksonville to stay in this game long enough for the Packers to keep aggressively attacking. At the $9000 salary this week, it’s going to be tough to get to Adams with other options on the board that could be in just as good, if not better game environments. If we’re playing 20 rosters, then we’re getting some exposure, or at least I am. He might be a fade for me in my single entry stuff though. Keenan Allen should be able to avoid Xavien Howard for most of the day if the Chargers use a lot of 3 WR sets and have him in the slot. On a per-game basis, Allen only trails Davante Adams in targets per game (11.5 to 10.8), yet look at the price discrepancy. Allen is a solid buy this week at $7100 facing Nik Needham in the slot. 

Jarvis Landry saw 11 targets last week with Beckham out. This occurred during a game with miserable throwing conditions. 11 targets will be his baseline going forward and as long as they move him away from Bradley Roby he should be able to convert many of those targets into fantasy points. The forecast for this week’s game is one to watch and if we’re good, we’re going to want to grab Landry’s volume at his $5900 salary. Last week I had the Panthers WR listed as pivot options but didn’t actually play any of them. There’s a lot to like about this group again this week. With CMC out, and them facing a very tough run defense, the WRs are going to have to pick up the slack. Curtis Samuel has been balling the past couple of weeks and will continue to have a role as a receiver and ball carrier. He’s the best value of the trio. Coach Rhule says he’d like to see D.J. Moore catch more balls, implying he needs more targets. Moore was on the field for 81 of the 83 offensive plays against the Chiefs only to finish with 2 catches on 3 targets for 18 yards. Joe Brady may scheme more opportunities Moore’s way here. Robby Anderson has the most bankable volume of the group but hasn’t scored a TD since week one. Regression candidate? Since I’m not likely to use Bridgewater this week, I’ll try to split exposure among 2 (or all 3) of these guys, with exposure likely tilting toward Moore and Samuel. Christian Kirk has posted a 20+ point game in 3 straight now and gets the advantage of Tre White covering Hopkins leaving him to face Wallace and/or Norman on the other side. The two straight games of 8 targets are a nice base we hope to expect from him again here. If White has the blanket over Nuk then we should be able to count on another 8+ targets, as well as some deep shots that could spike his score. John Brown is returning to the desert after putting in his first healthy game since week 1, coincidentally the only other week he had 10+ targets this year. With Patrick Peterson set to slow down Diggs and Murphy making things difficult in the slot, Allen might find the path of least resistance will be with Smoke. Stacking Kirk and Brown with either QB should give the build a unique look compared to the Hopkins/Diggs builds that might include one or the other as well.

The 49ers offense is down to starting Brandon Aiyuk and Richie James at WR. We just saw the Saints smoother the Bucs and now here comes the lowly 49ers. Trap game? Not likely. The 49ers won in a 48-46 shootout on their last trip to the Superdome. That score isn’t likely to repeat but the 49ers will still have to get the ball to the few players they have left. Aiyuk and James will have to make the plays that are there and neither will cost too much salary for the number of targets and carries they should both see. Emmanuel Sanders is also interesting in this game. If Warner and the defense can control Kamara, and Michael Thomas is not healthy enough to be a factor, then we can get the former employer narrative going with Sanders. Sanders respectfully said he “wants to kick their ass, and after the game, we can hug it out.” He could make that happen for himself if the Kamara/Thomas duo is not effective.

If you’re looking for a cheap WR that has 2 TD potential, then Alshon Jeffery might be your guy. He’s set to make his return to the Eagles lineup this week and, as suggested in this Twitter thread, Jeffery can be used as a goal-line TD threat. I’m write up all three Broncos WRs here even though I have them each in a different tier above. The field will probably chase Jerry Jeudy’s big game against Atlanta. Fine, I’ll probably have some Jeudy as well. Jeudy got hurt against ATL and seems likely to play but he’s their most talented WR and Travon Mullen (who is a solid CB this year) is likely to cover him. Tim Patrick is the Broncos #2 WR and also aligns outside, opposite of Jeudy. His matchup against Lawson is better than Jeudy’s and he’s one more game back from injury. Patrick typically plays a deep role for Denver but only has an aDOT that’s 1 yard greater than Jeudy. Patrick is a solid pivot away from Jeudy if you want a Broncos WR but the build has too much chalk already. If we want to get spicy, we can pivot down another leg and punt with K.J. Hamler. Hamler is coming off a 10 target game and has the best matchup in the slot against LaMarcus Joyner and friends. The Raiders are boosting slot WR fantasy points by 3.6 per game. Simple math would indicate that Hamler’s 7.5 points per game plus the 3.6 gives us a medium base total of 10.1. If we think Hamler can match his ceiling game from last week, then he can get to 18.6 for only $3800. Jakeem Grant will inherit a larger role on offense after the Dolphins traded away Isaiah Ford, then lost Preston Williams to injury in the same week. At minimum price, it’s hard to not like the opportunity per dollar available here. Grant saw 5 targets last week which should spike up a bit in this one and he could create mismatches with his smaller stature and quickness through the slot. I thought I was being sneaky when I put Josh Reynolds into my dummy build on Tuesday. Then I took to Twitter and saw him being mentioned by several user-handles there. So it seems he’s going to carry higher ownership than I originally thought but I still like the setup. The Seahawks secondary is providing an absurd 15.5 bump to outside WRs. That’s what put my early focus on Reynolds and Robert Woods. Reynolds has been the shot play guy, which against a defense like this gives him a higher probability of hitting on those plays – potentially more than once. Robert Woods now becomes a bit sneakier with people gravitating toward Reynolds and his low salary, so I plan to get exposure to both. 

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram
• PIVOTS: Mike Gesicki, Eric Ebron
• PUNTS: Jordan Akins, Jordan Reed, Jacob Hollister

T.J. Hockenson gets the benefit of facing a Washington defense that surrenders a league-high 25.2% of their targets to TEs and boosts TE scoring by 3 fantasy points per game. If Golladay is out again, Hock takes on a larger role in the offense and is ranked 3rd on Fantasy Data’s list for receptions inside the 5-yard line. Evan Engram has quietly been a factor at TE this year and the last few weeks have shown marginal increases in his fantasy output. His back to back weeks of 10 targets now has him #3 in targets per game among TEs, behind only Waller and Kelce. The Eagles have not been good at defending TEs and with the WRs the Giants have, they cannot afford to focus solely on Engram to get better there. 

Mike Gesicki had a 30 point game against Buffalo, 14 points against San Francisco, then has pretty much been a non-participant in his other games this season. DraftKings has him over-priced for his recent production, which should keep the field off of him. He’s a risky play based on this lack of production, but as we mentioned with Grant, Miami has lost two starting receivers since last week and the ball has to go somewhere. The Chargers are TE friendly on defense so this could be an opportunity for Gesicki to have a breakout game at low ownership. The Bengals defense is allowing 8.5 targets (24% rate) to TEs which is good news for Eric Ebron. Ebron seems to be solidifying his rapport with Ben, which is also good news for him. Ebron is a solid pivot off of Engram if you’re starting to weigh too heavy on Engram throughout multiple builds.

Jordan Akins seems to be a punt I’m willing to keep trying because he keeps popping up as a reasonable play in the matchups he’s been getting. This week we can roll the dice on him for $400 less than last week even though the matchup is more favorable. Cleveland offers a 3 point bump to TEs and a 4.4 bump to slot WRs. Akins spends more time flexed out into a slot role than as an inline TE and he creates mismatches that way. Watson will give him 4+ targets per game, which isn’t bad for a TE this low in the salary scale. The Saints have been lit up by a few TEs this year (primarily Waller and Tonyan) and TE is a position of focus in Shanahan’s offense. Jordan Reed comes in cheap enough to seriously consider this week. Jacob Hollister is probably going to be the TE I’ll use if I totally punt the position but he has a pretty good shot of putting up decent numbers here. The Rams secondary is hard enough to throw on that teams will funnel targets down to the TEs and RBs. Hollister had 7 targets last week and Greg Olsen is listed as questionable. Hollister may be taking control of the TE position, if not for just this week. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Packers, Eagles, Steelers
• PIVOTS: Washington, Saints
• PUNTS: Lions

The Packers DST are the biggest favorites on the slate, and although it doesn’t mean as much this year, they are playing at home. If they are going to control the game with a big lead (as Vegas suggests), then Jacksonville’s rookie QB will be pressed into desperation time early, especially with how the packers soak away clock from their opponents. Any defense facing Daniel Jones makes this list. Jones is a turnover machine and has been sacked 22 times this year. The Eagles DST has a terrific defensive line that will get after Jones and force him into bad decisions/turnovers. The Steelers DST has one of the best OL vs DL matchups of the slate with an 8.3% Net Adjusted Sack Rate and the Bengals still dealing with multiple injuries on their OL. Only Carson Wentz has been sacked more often per game than Joe Burrow. 

Washington DST has 27 sacks at a 10.5% non-adjusted sack rate, the Lions QBs are sacked at the 6th highest rate in the NFL, and the Lions OL vs DL matchup has them with the worst blended ASR on the slate. Pressure causes mistakes and turnovers. While it’s possible Shanahan’s craftiness keeps the 49ers from getting completely embarrassed, it’s also very possible they get the doors blown off of them. The Saints DST just crushed Brady and the Bucs and the guys across the ball in this game are a few notches below the talent on the Bucs roster right now. The 49ers have bad OL vs DL matchups in both the run and pass data and could suffer several sacks, turnovers, and may not score very many points.

Apparently, the new minimum price for DST on DraftKings is $2500? If that’s the case, punting at the position is going to get a lot harder. The Lions DST is the 2nd-lowest salary there and they don’t have the worst match-up going against a weaker offensive opponent in Washington. The Lions corners seem to be getting healthy and playing better and Washington has allowed 28 sacks with an 8.3% Adjusted Sack Rate.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The more I look at the Bills/Cards game, the more I like the idea of going skinny there and using that game more for one-offs than stacks (though I’ll have a couple of game stacks, too). The matchups at the skill spots are either tough for the star players or good for the ancillary pieces that we can’t expect much from. In 2018 Tre White covered Hopkins for most of the game and allowed 33 targets, 2 catches, 27 yards, and a TD. White will probably follow Nuk around here and cap his upside. At Nuk’s salary, I want 30 points and not the 17.3 he got against the Bills 2 years ago. Kingsbury has not been very creative with him yet which also irks me about paying up for him. The other two spots that are ripe for some juice are the slot and TE positions for Arizona but Fitz is not a high ceiling guy anymore and the TE position in Arizona is not a priority spot in the scheme. They have their TEs splitting snaps and splitting 3 targets among the 3 of them. Peterson vs Diggs will be a fun matchup to watch in real life but I don’t expect Diggs to crush that battle. He only had 3 catches for 33 yards in his previous meeting with Arizona and PP7.

There were no RBs I found on this slate to be “Best Bet” material. All the good ones have dents and guys like Nick Chubb just don’t have the passing game involvement to elevate them to that status. What this tells me is that the field (and optimizers) are going to push ownership onto guys like Kamara and Mike Davis. And, because of the pricing for these two, we’re probably going to see this as the most common RB combo on the slate. I am of the mind to fade both or keep exposure very low. Kamara is such a “safe” name for the field to flock to and his matchup isn’t great, but Kamara is a tough one for me this week. With how well the 49ers have defended against the run and limited RBs on passes out of the backfield, and with Kamara sharing carries inside the 5-yard line at a 2:1 ratio with Murray, it’s hard to project a smash game for AK41 – especially at his salary.  This week is probably going to be very similar to what we saw last week where the RB position was weak and playing a 4th WR in the flex may be the way to go. 

When thinking through the Rams game, it makes me wonder how much more involved the rookies may be after a bye week. Henderson is dealing with an injury and could cede some opportunity to Akers, and it’s possible Jefferson could eat into Reynolds snaps. Diontae Johnson seems so underpriced, still. At $5200 it’s not going to be that hard for him to hit 4 times value and allow us to spend up elsewhere. If that game is competitive, then Johnson will be a big part of the Steelers offense.

I’m still waiting for final injury reports to come out and will do my best to get back in here to edit some of these picks if any material changes to actives/inactives or weather concerns arise. My Workbook is constantly updated with the player pool I choose from and will eventually have my ownership percentages listed for each player. That is another good way to keep up with changes in information that I am reacting to as I continue to research games this week. Hope you all have a good Week 10 and thanks for reading!