Super Bowl LV Prop Bets
Quarterback Props
The line on passing yards right now is set at 325.5 on DraftKings and PointsBet and I’ll be taking the under on this one. Mahomes just put up exactly 325 passing yards against the Bills, and that was the first time he’s topped 300 or more yards since Week 14 against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers defense has been fantastic this year and the defensive backs are healthy for the most part minus Jordan Whitehead. The Chiefs on the other hand will be without three of their starting offensive lineman after tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles against the Bills. This Bucs pass rush got Vita Vea back last week and everyone in their defensive line rotation is healthy. Shaq Barrett is also coming off a three-sack performance against the Packers. The situation with the Chiefs offensive line and Bucs pass rush should be a major factor and Mahomes has also been battling turf toe.
Another prop bet I’m looking at is for Mahomes to throw more passing yards than Brady, which is currently at -155 on FanDuel Sportsbook. While I don’t think he’ll top 325 yards, I still think he’ll throw for more yards, it is Patrick Mahomes after all.
Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs record with and without Fisher…
With Fisher: 27-1
Without Fisher: 4-4
- Patrick Mahomes Under 325.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes – Most Passing Yards
Running Back Props
The biggest storyline at the running back position for these two teams in the playoffs has been Leonard Fournette. He’s put up 93, 63, and 55 rushing yards in each playoff game this year, scoring once in each game. Ronald Jones has been dealing with a quad injury but was back and healthy against the Packers where he took his 10 carries for a whopping 16 yards. I’m expecting the Bucs to continue to lean on Fournette and I’ll take the over on his 48.5 rushing yards.
Mahomes’ rushing line is set at 19.5 yards on DraftKings, and I’ll take the under on that one. He’s ran for 14 and 5 yards in each of his past two games, and with this toe injury he’s dealt with, I still don’t think he looks 100%. Between the toe and the issues with the offensive line, I don’t foresee Mahomes running much in this one. Brady on the other hand has a fun rushing prop bet on PointsBet at 0.5 rushing yards. Brady has finished 7 games this year with negative rushing yards and 7 games with zero rushing yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 40.5 rushing yards is the last prop bet I’m looking at in this one for running backs. The Chiefs have given Darrel Williams 13 carries in each of the past two games, while Edwards-Helaire only saw 6 last week for 7 rushing yards. He’s supposedly healthy now after dealing with ankle and hip injuries, but the Chiefs obviously didn’t use him much against the Bills. Between Williams, Edwards-Helaire, and Le’Veon Bell I don’t expect one running back to get a full workload, but we’ll see a split again. Between this split, the issues with the offensive line, and the Bucs top rushing defense in the NFL, I’ll take the under here.
- Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 Rushing Yards
- Tom Brady Over 0.5 Rushing Yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 30.5 Rushing Yards
Wide Receiver/Tight End Props
The first name that comes to mind in this matchup is Tyreek Hill after he finished with a massive 269-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Bucs in Week 12. His line is set at 92.5 on DraftKings and I’ll take the over on that one. It really doesn’t matter who is covering Hill, even if the Bucs top cornerback Carlton Davis shadows him, he’ll still be catching plenty of passes and running all over this secondary. Travis Kelce on the other hand is just continuing to show that he’s the best tight end in the NFL. He’s scored in six straight games, including twice last week against Buffalo. Hill and Kelce are the two “most-likely” players to score in this one on DraftKings at -175 each, and rightfully so. While Hill should score as well, I believe Kelce is the safer option to find the end zone in this one.
The Bucs give up big games to opposing WR2s or WR3s fairly regularly. They gave up 104 yards on 7 receptions to Cam Sims against the Washington Football Team. Against the Saints, Tre’Quan Smith scored twice and put up 85 yards with Emmanuel Sanders also putting up 48. Last week against the Packers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 115 yards and a touchdown, and Allen Lazard had 62 yards.
Mecole Hardman’s line is worth considering at 28.5 yards, but he has less than 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games and can be a bit unpredictable. Demarcus Robinson was the first name I was considering for this prop bet with a line at 13.5 yards, but he has been placed on the injured/COVID-19 list and will be inactive. Sammy Watkins hasn’t seen the field since Week 16 against the Falcons, as he’s been dealing with a calf injury. As of now, it looks like he’s going to play, but I don’t expect him to be 100% or heavily involved. With Robinson active and Watkins not being 100%, I’ll take the over on Hardman’s line at 28.5 receiving yards.
Tampa Bay’s pass-catchers receiving prop bets are a bit tough to judge at times, with so many options for Brady to go to. Mike Evans scores more often than not and is always a weapon in the red zone. I like him to score in this one, but Chris Godwin will probably lead the way in receiving yards. Antonio Brown has been dealing with a knee injury, but I expect he may be active and play a few snaps. Don’t expect much as the Bucs offense looked just fine last week in Green Bay without him. At +110, Evans scoring a touchdown is a nice prop bet to target for Tampa Bay and might be the safest option to consider from this group of pass-catchers.
- Tyreek Hill Over 92.5 Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce to Score
- Mecole Hardman Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
- Mike Evans to Score
Just for Fun
If you’re a true degenerate gambler, you’ve probably bet on the outcome of a coin toss more than once. In the history of 54 past Super Bowls, tails has landed 29 (53%) times while heads 25 (47%) times. For the past four years, the results have alternated, with heads as the winner in 2019. Tails never fails and I’m looking for tails to come up big in this one.
- Coin Toss – Tails
