Surprising Fantasy Stats After Eight NFL Weeks
We are now approaching Week 9 of the NFL season and things have not become any more predictable. The top players in fantasy are a strange combination of the usual suspects and players who weren’t even on the radar to begin the season. This past week, the injuries continued to pile up. Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Christian Kirk (clavicle) will miss the remainder of the season. Jordan Love (groin), Deebo Samuel (ribs), and Jordan Mason (shoulder) all left their contests early. Just add them to the growing list of players we have to do without. Next season we may have to add 10 IR spots to our rosters just to accommodate all the injuries. Still, the season keeps moving, and with it comes more statistics to dissect. Let’s take a look at this week’s ten surprising fantasy stats after seven NFL weeks.
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GENO SMITH (QB)
*Most pass attempts per game
Coming into the season, I would have expected Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes to lead in this category. But so far, through eight weeks, Geno Smith has attempted the most passes per game of any quarterback. Smith averages 38.5 attempts per contest. This is surprising for a team that has historically been a run-first offense. But with pass-catching weapons like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it makes sense to air it out. They are even getting the running backs involved. I expect it to continue as long as it keeps working, and if they do choose to rely on Smith’s arm he could continue to be a low-end QB1.
SAM DARNOLD (QB)
*Best completion percentage on deep balls of any quarterback
Sam Darnold has seen a career revival in 2024. The expectations for Darnold were low this season. When the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy everyone believed he would be the Day One starter. But after suffering a meniscus injury that forced him to miss the season, Darnold stepped in and looked like a different version of himself. He now has the Vikings at 5-2. He also completes 67.2% of his passes, including 73.3% on deep balls, which easily leads the league. Things are about to get better for Darnold as well with T.J. Hockenson set to return soon. Darnold should be a QB1 the rest of the way.
CHUBA HUBBARD (RB)
*Is a top-five running back in rushing yards
There are players whose names that you expect to see in the top five at their position. But I’m not sure Chuba Hubbard is one of those names. Still, after eight weeks of NFL football, Hubbard is among the top five in rushing yards. Hubbard has 593 yards on 118 attempts. That is an average of 5.0 yards per attempt. This is even more impressive because he’s doing it on a bad Panthers team. Rookie Jonathon Brooks should be returning in the near future, and it’s unclear how much work he will get. But until then, Hubbard is a locked and loaded RB2 with a safe floor.
BREECE HALL (RB)
*Most receiving yards by a running back
This one is very surprising to me. I’m sure if Christian McCaffrey had been playing all season, he would lead in this category, but even without him, there were more likely players to take the mantle of most receiving yards by a running back. Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson are two names that come to mind. But it is Breece Hall who leads the league in receiving yards among running backs with 316. Kamara is second, but Hall has seven fewer receptions, so he’s doing more with his opportunities. Hall has had five or more catches in all but two games, making him a set-it-and-forget-it RB1.
KENNETH WALKER (RB)
*Fewest rushing attempts of any top 12 running back
This one comes with a bit of a caveat. Walker has missed two games. Still, this directly ties into my stat about Geno Smith’s pass attempts. Kenneth Walker only has 74 rushing attempts which is the lowest mark among any top 12 running back. Back in the first week, Walker had 20 carries. That made him look like a workhorse. But upon returning from his injury he has had no more than 14 rushing attempts in any game. But he has still been producing most weeks due to a larger role in the passing game. He has at least five targets in each game since his return. This gives him a safe PPR floor and makes him a solid RB2 with upside.
JAYDEN REED (WR)
*Fewest receptions of any top 12 wide receiver
Jayden Reed is currently a top 12 wide receiver regardless of format. While he hasn’t had the volume of a true WR1, he has been one of the most efficient pass-catchers in fantasy. Reed has managed to crack the top 12 while hauling in the fewest receptions of any top 12 wide receiver. This includes players like Darnell Mooney who is the No. 2 or No. 3 option on his team and Nico Collins who hasn’t played since Week 5. If Reed sees a higher volume over the second half of the season he could be a league-winner. As things stand he is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.
DIONTAE JOHNSON (WR)
*Tied with Mike Evans for the most endzone targets
When Diontae Johnson joined the Carolina Panthers no one knew exactly what to expect. Bryce Young was a huge question mark and many believed they might become a run-first team because of his limitations. Still, most analysts and experts predicted Johnson to be the focal point of the passing game. That has been proven true. What’s surprising is that Johnson, who has never been a touchdown guy, is tied with Mike Evans for the lead league in endzone targets. They both have 11. With the news that Johnson has been traded to the Ravens, I don’t expect that to continue. They have more weapons than the Panthers, so Johnson goes from being the focal point of an offense to just a part of one. He’s still a low-end WR2, but most weeks he may produce as a flex.
JA’MARR CHASE (WR)
*Leads all receivers with seven receiving TDs
This one may not seem all that surprising but if you think back to the beginning of the season and all the uncertainty surrounding Ja’Marr Chase, I think it qualifies. Add to that the fact that he shares the field (and the opportunities) with Tee Higgins and that he’s ahead of players like Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb, and all of a sudden, Chase’s league-leading seven receiving touchdowns does become surprising. But so far, even if the Bengals offense has not fully clicked, Chase has looked like a player worthy of a huge contract and one of the easiest lineup choices every week.
ISAIAH LIKELY (TE)
*2nd-most redzone targets among tight ends
This one blew my mind. Not only is Isaiah Likely second in the league among tight ends with nine redzone targets, but it’s not his teammate, Mark Andrews who is No. 1. That honor goes to George Kittle with 12. It’s no secret that Andrews has been a major disappointment in fantasy this season. That has set the stage for Likely to get more work. Although that work has not led to fantasy-relevant production most weeks, knowing he’s getting so many looks in the redzone does give him some touchdown upside. Still, Likely is too volatile to trust as a starter, especially with players like Cade Otton and Hunter Henry starting to emerge.
CADE OTTON (TE)
*Fewest fantasy points per target among top 12 tight ends
Speaking of Cade Otton, he is a true testament to the fact that sometimes all a player needs is a chance. After losing Chris Godwin for the season to an ankle injury and Mike Evans for at least four weeks to a hamstring injury, Otton became the primary pass catcher this past week. In that game, Otton caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. This was his second straight game with 10 targets. So while Otton does have the fewest fantasy points per game among top 12 tight ends with 1.4, I expect that to change moving forward. Without Evans, Otton could be a top-five play, but even when Evans returns, Otton should remain heavily involved and produce enough to finish in the top 10 at the position.
