10 Surprising Fantasy Stats After Five NFL Weeks

Surprising Fantasy Stats

Can we get one week without a significant injury to a key fantasy starter? If so, it will have to wait until Week 6. This past week, Nico Collins, Aaron Jones, and De’Von Achane were added to a long list of starters who have been unavailable this season. As bye weeks continue it could create an issue when setting your lineup for Week 6. But that’s a problem for another day. For now let’s look at some of the more interesting advanced metrics that have come out of the first five weeks. Here are 10 surprising fantasy stats after five NFL weeks.

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Sam Darnold (QB)

*Best touchdown rate among any top 12 quarterback

Sam Darnold has had a career resurgence in 2024. Coming into the season, expectations were low for Darnold. After six years of mediocre play, analysts, experts, fans, and fantasy managers had come to expect the worst with Darnold. But when rookie J.J. McCarthy went down with a torn meniscus, Darnold stepped up in a big way. Darnold has led the Vikings to five straight wins and has had three top 10 fantasy finishes at the position. He is currently the QB10 and has the best touchdown rate among any top 12 quarterback with a rate of 10.4. While he did have a down week in London against the Jets, things will line up nicely for Darnold to keep rolling coming out of his bye.

Brock Purdy (QB)

*Most air yards per attempt among any top 12 quarterback

This one surprised me quite a bit. Brock Purdy is not the first quarterback when you think of players who throw the ball downfield. But through the first five weeks of the season, Purdy has the most air yards per attempt among any top 12 quarterback with 10.6. Part of this could be due to the fact that Purdy doesn’t attempt as many passes as other quarterbacks (he is attempting just over 30 attempts per game.) But with his primary pass catchers getting healthy, it seems reasonable to assume this will continue. San Francisco is probably the best 2-3 team in football. I expect them to right the ship and if/when Christian McCaffrey can return, things could take off for Purdy and the entire 49ers offense.

Derrick Henry (RB)

*Lowest snap share among any top 12 running back in half or full PPR formats

This one is crazy. Derrick Henry is currently the overall RB1 or RB2 depending on format, but he has the lowest snap share of any top 12 running back. Henry is playing just 53.8% of snaps and yet he leads the league in rushing yards (572) and is tied with Kyren Williams for the most rushing touchdowns with six. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 19 attempts per game. Before the season, many “experts” were writing Henry off as a bust saying he’s too old and would not have a workhorse role in Baltimore. He is proving both of those assertions to be false. Henry is a locked and loaded RB1 the rest of the way and the favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns by the end of the season.

Kyren Williams (RB)

*Fewest yards per attempt among top 12 running backs

While Kyren Williams is eighth in the league in rushing yards (360) and tied with Derrick Henry for the most rushing touchdowns (6), he has not been particularly efficient through the first five weeks. Williams is getting 19 carries per game, but he has only managed to muster 3.8 yards per carry, which is the lowest mark of any top 12 running back. His saving grace has been the heavy workload. As other key playmakers like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua get healthy things should open up for Williams because opposing defenses won’t be able to focus primarily on him. But so far it’s been tough sledding. Still, Williams is one of the most talented runners in the game and is a high-end RB1 for your fantasy squad.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

*Sees a stacked box more often than any top 30 running back

Over the last couple of weeks, there has been much talk about Rhamondre Stevenson’s inability to protect the football. This came to a fever pitch when the team announced that Antonio Gibson would get the start over Stevenson this past week against Miami. Well, it didn’t last long. Against Miami, Stevenson had 16 touches for 92 yards and a score en route to an RB5 finish. Through five weeks Stevenson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry while seeing a stacked box more often than any top 30 running back (21.5% of the time.) That may change if newly anointed starter Drake Maye can inject some life into the air attack, but for now, I am impressed that Stevenson can produce at all with all the attention.

Amari Cooper (WR)

*Most air yards per reception among wide receivers with at least 20 catches

To put it kindly, Amari Cooper has been underwhelming this season. Cooper is barely a top 35 wide receiver. The most frustrating part is that it’s not his fault. The talent is still there, but the entire Browns’ offense is a mess. Still, when the passes have been catchable he has managed to produce with a lot of opportunities downfield. Cooper has the most air yards per reception of any wide receiver with at least 20 receptions with 24 yards per reception. While this has only led to one worthwhile fantasy week (he was WR4 in his third game), if the offense can get things figured out, there could be brighter days ahead. But with how things have looked so far, I wouldn’t count on it.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

*Lowest snap share among any top 12 wide receiver

Jauan Jennings is currently a top 12 wide receiver in all formats which is not something anyone predicted coming into the season. Even more impressive is that he has cracked the top 12 while having the lowest snap share among any top 12 wide receiver playing on 60.6% of snaps. Much of his success has been because of injuries to the players around him, and it has been bolstered by one huge week in which he scored over 40 fantasy points and finished as the WR1. The rest of the time he has been outside of the top 30 at the position. Hopefully, you sold high on him after his big performance. If not, then you’re probably stuck with him now. He won’t be completely useless, but as long as everyone around him is healthy he is likely no more than a flex player.

Alec Pierce (WR)

*The largest average depth of target in the NFL

Very few fantasy managers are scrambling to add Alec Pierce to their squads. Pierce has two top-eight performances and one other top-20 showing. He also has two games of more than 120 yards receiving. But the way he has done it is hard to trust. In his three best games of the season, he saw more than three targets in just one of them, and that wasn’t one of his 120+ yard games. When he has produced, the production has mostly been the product of one big play. This has led to him leading the league with an average depth of target of 24.9 yards. That isn’t sustainable, especially if he continues with such minimal usage (he has three or fewer targets in all but one game.) Don’t chase the points. Pierce is better left on the waiver wire. Let him be someone else’s headache.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

*Most routes run among tight ends

Who had Tyler Conklin running the most routes among all NFL tight ends on their 2024 Bingo Card? Yeah, me either. But the entire season, especially when it comes to tight ends, has been impossible to predict, so why wouldn’t Tyler Conklin run a route 100% of the time for the Jets? Yes, 100%. But it hasn’t led to production yet. Conklin has only had one top-12 performance, so most weeks, if you started him, you were disappointed with his output. Conklin has had at least six targets in the last three games though, and that kind of consistency is hard to find at the tight end position. So if you’re streaming the position and choosing between mid-tier starters, Conklin is one of the better options.

Late Round TEs

*Three late-round tight ends are tied for the most redzone targets

If I asked you to tell me who you think has the most redzone targets among tight ends through the first five weeks of the 2024 NFL season, who would you say? Travis Kelce? George Kittle? Mark Andrews? Nope, nope, and definitely not. At this point in the season, there are three players tied with four redzone targets each. Those players are Cole Kmet, Tucker Kraft, and Colby Parkinson. This helps to amplify the unpredictability of the position this year. Throughout the season you’ll see weekly rankings by experts, analysts, and sports writers. But when it comes tight ends, their guess is as good as anyone else’s. Of these three, Parkinson is the only one not in the top 12 at the position. But if the rest of the season is anything like the first five weeks, the top 12 will look very different by season’s end.