NFL Stats
Seven weeks have come and gone and the season has been nothing, if not unpredictable. The top five at nearly every position looks very different than what we expected, and each week brings new injuries to navigate. This past week, the major blows were dealt to Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk has already been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL and MCL, and Godwin is set to have what is believed to be season-ending surgery to repair a dislocated ankle. Mike Evans is also dealing with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for multiple weeks and Deebo Samuel was hospitalized for pneumonia and later released, but has no timetable for his return. Still, the season stops for no one. Let’s take a look at this week’s ten surprising fantasy stats after seven NFL weeks.
Quick Links
JOSH ALLEN (QB)
*Zero interceptions through seven weeks
Coming into the season we all knew that Josh Allen was a fantasy star. He has been a top two fantasy quarterback for four seasons in a row. While he is currently the QB4 this season, Allen is performing like an elite talent. Through seven weeks, Allen has thrown for 1,483 yards, 12 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That’s right. ZERO interceptions. To put that into perspective, last season, over the same span, Allen threw seven interceptions. Needless to say, Allen is protecting the ball and his fantasy managers are benefiting because of it. If he keeps up this level of play, he could coast into the top two by the season’s end.
BAKER MAYFIELD (QB)
*Leads the league in passing touchdowns
Mayfield currently has the most passing touchdowns (18) of any quarterback in the league, and it is this ability to put the ball in the endzone that has made him the QB2 this season. Tampa Bay continues to be a great fit for Mayfield’s skillset. But the honeymoon may be over. Mayfield just lost fantasy star Chris Godwin to what is likely a season-ending ankle injury and Mike Evans could miss multiple weeks with an injury to his hamstring. I’m not saying Mayfield won’t still be able to produce, but whenever you take away not one, but two elite pass catchers, the overall production will take a hit.
TANK BIGSBY (RB)
*2nd Most yards per carry of any top-40 running back
We are truly living in bizarre times. I don’t think anyone had Tank Bigsby with the second-most yards per carry of any top-40 running back on their 2024 Fantasy Football Bingo Card. While his boom weeks have corresponded with Travis Etienne’s lack of availability, even in contests where both have been healthy, Bigsby has run well. Over the last three weeks, Bigsby has two top-seven running back finishes. In those two games, Bigsby scored four total touchdowns, averaged over six yards per carry, and scored over 25 fantasy points. Bigsby is a recommended start anytime Etienne is absent, or you could take advantage of his momentum and sell him high to upgrade elsewhere.
JOE MIXON (RB)
*Sees a stacked box more than any top-20 running back
There were a lot of Joe Mixon doubters coming into the 2024 season. Mixon has never been particularly efficient and has gotten by primarily on volume. The consensus was that he would not get the same type of volume in Houston that he enjoyed in Cincinnati. Apparently, the Texans had other plans. Mixon has only played in four games this season due to injury. In those games, he has scored 25+ points three times. He is also averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Even more impressive is that he’s doing it while seeing a stacked box 19.2% of the time, which is more than any top-20 running back. He is a weekly set-it-and-forget-it fantasy option.
DERRICK HENRY (RB)
*200 more rushing yards than the No. 2 rusher
We all know that Derrick Henry has been very good for fantasy (and real) football this season, but some of you may not realize just how good he has been. Through seven weeks, Henry has 873 rushing yards, which is 206 more yards than the No. 2 rusher in the league (Jordan Mason.) Henry is also averaging 6.5 yards per carry. The truly remarkable part of all of this is that Henry has done this with just six more carries than Mason on the season. While many were ready to write Henry off as too old to do much in fantasy this season, he is beginning to look like the type of league-winner everyone hopes to get on their team. Congratulations if you’re the manager who does.
NICO COLLINS (WR)
*Is still a top-10 wide receiver despite missing nearly three games
Nico Collins only played 13% of the snaps in Week 5 before injuring his hamstring and has not taken the field since, and yet he is still a top-10 wide receiver on the season, regardless of format. He has been that good. In four complete games, Collins has had fewer than double-digit targets just once, and his 567 receiving yards is fourth among all wide receivers. That’s an impressive accomplishment in seven games. But he’s done it in just over four. Collins is set to miss at least two more games, but when he’s healthy and back in the Texans’ lineup he is also immediately back in yours.
GARRETT WILSON (WR)
*Fewest points per target among top-12 wide receivers
After the Davante Adams trade to the New York Jets, fantasy managers everywhere were bemoaning the impact on Garrett Wilson. A significant portion of the fantasy community thought Wilson would lack opportunities. After a one-game sample size, it looks like Wilson will be involved. Against the Steelers, Wilson received nine targets, catching five for 61 yards. Unfortunately, he only has two games over 20 fantasy points and is averaging nearly 11 targets per game which has led to the fewest points per target among top-12 wide receivers at 1.5. The schedule lightens up considerably in the coming weeks, so keep firing him up. He is about to pay huge dividends.
A.J. BROWN (WR)
*Has zero redzone targets
When on the field, A.J. Brown has looked the part of an elite WR1. The issue has been staying on the field, but in three complete games, Brown has averaged over 22 fantasy points per game. He has also scored in each game. Still, I was surprised to find out that Brown has yet to get a redzone target. I expect that to change, but even if it doesn’t, it’s clearly not hurting his fantasy value. Brown is currently No. 1 among wide receivers in fantasy points per game and as long as he’s on the field that should continue. Brown is a locked and loaded WR1.
MARK ANDREWS (TE)
*Largest average depth of target among top-12 tight ends
Over the last two weeks, Mark Andrews has finally started to get things going. Over that span, Andrews has scored at least 15 PPR points per game, has three touchdowns, and has finished as a top three tight end each week. His snap share of 50-55% is still lower than his managers would like, but he is being efficient with his time and has the largest average depth of target (11.1) among top-12 tight ends. Those who have been patient with Andrews are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. As long as Lamar Jackson continues playing at an elite level and is looking for Andrews in the redzone/endzone, Andrews will keep scoring touchdowns and reward his owners.
TREY MCBRIDE (TE)
*Highest target share among tight ends
Coming into the season, a lot of experts and analysts were bullish on Trey McBride. He has yet to live up to the hype, but the usage has been encouraging. Through seven weeks, McBride has at least six targets in every game and is getting the highest target share (26%) among tight ends. The issue is that the passing game of the Cardinals has not been as high-volume as was expected, leading to fewer opportunities for everyone involved. Still, McBride is a trusted and consistent option for Kyler Murray, and with the tight end landscape as it is, McBride is a must-start every week.
