NFL Stats
We are quickly approaching the midway of the season, and the NFL continues to surprise us. In week 7 alone, we saw the Bills and 49ers fall to teams that no one expected them to lose to. For the 49ers it was the second straight week they have lost to an inferior team, once again, leading to questions about Brock Purdy’s ability to lead them. Yet, in a season that has been full of surprises, heart-breaking injuries, and exciting breakouts there are still things flying under the radar. A deeper look at the season illuminates some of these surprising statistics, and while not every piece of information will be actionable from a fantasy perspective, they still provide a bit of insight as to just how unpredictable this season has been. Here are 10 surprising fantasy stats heading into week eight.
These Ineteresing Stats were found in our Advanved Metrics and Efficiency Player Metric Data
C.J. Stroud (QB)
*Has the best TD/INT ratio
C.J. Stroud has been one of the most surprising and exciting players to emerge in 2023, both in real and fantasy football. In their first season, rookies often experience a lot of ups and downs as they adjust to the speed of the NFL. This is especially true of the quarterback position. The quarterback has to be the leader on the field, running the offense, reading defenses, changing plays at the line of scrimmage, and protecting the ball. There is usually a period of adjustment that can take a whole season or even two before a top-drafted rookie quarterback begins to show the skill set that got them drafted in the first place. This has not been the case for Stroud. Through six games he has begun to already look like a veteran, leading his team to a 3-3 record, with four top-12 fantasy finishes along the way. There are many reasons for this but chief among them is his lack of interceptions. In the first third of his NFL career, Stroud has thrown one interception compared to nine touchdowns. That’s the best touchdown to interception rate in the league, and it’s not because he’s throwing less than other quarterbacks. He attempts the ninth most passes per game in the league. He’s just not turning the ball over. As long as that continues, Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and the entire Houston offense should continue to find success.
Mac Jones (QB)
*Most interceptable passes
Mac Jones has not looked good this season. To be fair, he has a couple of weeks in which he looked like a competent NFL-caliber starting quarterback, finishing as the QB2 and QB8. Those were weeks 1 and 7, but sandwiched in between those two respectable outings are weeks where he has failed to finish as even a top-20 quarterback. The fault is not all his. The run game has looked stagnant, the wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired, and the play calling has been uninspiring. Still, Jones has not done himself any favors, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns (seven of each) and simply looking lost at times. He hasn’t been helped by his wide receivers who have dropped eight passes on the season but, still, if the Patriots are going to build off an impressive home win against the Bills, Jones has to do better. As bad as he has been, it could be worse. Advanced analytics show that while he has thrown seven interceptions, he also leads the league in interceptable passes with 15, so eight more passes could’ve been intercepted and just weren’t. If that happens and we’re looking at 15 interceptions to go along with seven touchdowns, it’s probably a different conversation we’re having, because Jones would likely be benched. There’s still a lot of the season left and time for Jones to turn things around, but if he’s going to do it, it has to start Sunday against the Dolphins.
Bijan Robinson (RB)
*Zero rushing TDs through seven weeks
When Bijan Robinson was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons the fantasy football community could not wait to draft him, usually in the 1st round. Predictions of a top-3 (or even No. 1 overall if everything fell right) finish followed and he was a consensus top-5 pick at the running back position. Atlanta was seen as the perfect landing space for the young, generational talent. The Falcons are a team in desperate need of elite-level playmakers other than London and Pitts, and with Desmond Ridder under center, the belief was that Arthur Smith would lean on the run game and Robinson would be a true bell cow in this offense with 20+ carries and multiple targets every game. That has not happened. While Robinson is getting around 15 touches per game (even after a week 7 that saw him only get one opportunity due to illness) he has been splitting time with the far less talented Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has yet to be allowed to really take off, and while RB11 (in half-PPR formats) is good, it is not what those who drafted him hoped they were getting. Part of this could be due to his lack of touchdowns. While Robinson does have two receiving touchdowns on the season, he has yet to score a single rushing touchdown. That’s not going to cut it. Hopefully, Robinson will start to take over this backfield sooner rather than later, and if that happens, the touchdowns should come.
Tyjae Spears (RB)
*Averaging more yards per carry than Derrick Henry
No, I am not saying Tyjae Spears is a better running back than Derrick Henry, but he has looked explosive this season when given the opportunity, and with reports that Derrick Henry is being shopped by the Titans, now may be the time to go trade for Spears. If he’s on your waiver wire then picking him up is a no-brainer. Through six games, Spears has had double-digit touches in just two games, but in one of those games he finished as the RB9 on the week in half-PPR formats, with 15.6 fantasy points. Perhaps the most impressive accomplishment of Spears’ young NFL career is the fact that Spears is currently averaging more yards per carry than teammate Henry. Spears is averaging 5.52 yards per carry, while Henry is averaging 4.34. It may be a bit unfair to compare the two since Henry has 98 carries compared to just 31 for Spears, but it is impossible to deny how explosive Spears has looked with the ball in his hands. He’s a fast, shifty running back that is difficult to tackle. This backfield will continue to belong to Henry, but if he ever goes down with an injury or if the Titans do move him, Spears could become a league-winning candidate.
Samaje Perine (RB)
*Tied for most receiving yards among running backs
It may surprise you to learn, but Samaje Perine is currently tied with Raiders running back Josh Jacobs for the most receiving yards among running backs, with 215. Don’t get me wrong, this is not an endorsement of Perine as a fantasy asset (unless there’s an injury to Williams and/or McLaughlin) but he has been involved in the Denver passing game with at least three targets in all but two games. That usage has not translated to fantasy production with Perine being no better than RB22 in fantasy this season. To be fair, Jacobs has also been disappointing in 2023, but he is still getting over 20 touches a game and should eventually find his way to becoming a weekly RB1. On the other hand, the most work Perine has received through seven games is 12 touches in week 1. On a struggling offense with a lot of mouths to feed and what could shape up to be a three-headed committee, with Perine seeing the least volume in that committee, that isn’t going to cut it. So don’t go out and grab Perine unless you’re desperate. However, if he does ever find himself in a position where he is handling a solid portion of the carries as well as continuing his usage in the passing game we know he can produce, based on what we saw last year in Cincinnati when Joe Mixon went down. I wouldn’t hold my breath though. Williams and McLaughlin are simply better and more explosive at this point in their careers and unless one or both are lost due to injury, Perine is a desperation flex at best.
Nico Collins (WR)
*Most yards per reception and yards per target
Nico Collins has been very good this year, providing a safe floor and the massive upside you look for in those later rounds of drafts. His success can be linked to the quick development of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, but no matter the reason for his success, what Collins has been able to do is impressive. Even more impressive is that he isn’t doing it simply by the coaching staff keeping things simple for Stroud with a lot of shallow routes close to the line of scrimmage. Stroud is being allowed to throw downfield. That is most likely the reason Collins leads the league in yards per reception (18.86) and yards per target (13.02). You would expect players like Gabe Davis or Tyler Lockett to lead in these categories, not the third-year wide receiver on a young 3-3 Houston Texans team. In his six games, Collins has scored double-digit fantasy points four times, with two top-4 finishes. It’s hard to imagine things don’t get even better for Collins moving forward. As good as Stroud has been there is still room for improvement and as that happens Collins should develop into a weekly WR2. The schedule also lines up nicely. The next three matchups are a bit challenging but after that, six of the remaining eight contests are plus matchups, but regardless of matchup, Collins should be in your lineup.
Puka Nacua (WR)
*More targets than Cooper Kupp since Kupp’s return
We all remember the alarms sounding. We were advised to sell high on Puka Nacua with the return of Cooper Kupp approaching. Many thought there would not be enough volume for both to produce because Matthew Stafford loves to hyper-target his breakfast buddy Cooper Kupp, leaving Nacua and others behind to pick up the scraps. Through three weeks of having them both on the field that has not been the case. Nacua has seen two more targets (30) than Cooper Kupp (28) in that span. Granted, two targets are not a lot, but I think the bigger storyline here is that Nacua has not gone away, far from it, and it does not appear that he will be going away any time soon. Since Kupp’s week 5 return, Nacua has seen double-digit targets twice, compared to once for Kupp. They both also have two top-12 finishes over that same span. Neither player is being hurt by the other. If anything, having another target opposing defenses have to worry about is opening things up for both players. By the end of the season, I would not be surprised to see Kupp and Nacua separated in the rankings by only a couple of spots with both finishing as top-12 wide receivers. What’s surprising to me is that I honestly can’t say which of the two will finish higher. Both are set-it-and-forget-it WR1s for the rest of the season.
Michael Pittman (WR)
*Highest snap share of wide receivers
At first, when I saw that Michael Pittman has the highest snap share of any wide receiver at 98.8% of snaps, it surprised me, but the more I thought about it, the more it made sense. The Colts are a struggling 3-4 team and while Zack Moss filled in well for Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs has begun to emerge, before Taylor’s return, Pittman was arguably their best offensive weapon. Now with Gardner Minshew under center, I don’t see Pittman’s snap share decreasing. Pittman has also been very good, if inconsistent, this season. He has three top-12 fantasy finishes at the position and four finishes outside the top-30, but Pittman’s inconsistency is more an indictment of the the team than it is of Pittman’s ability. Plus, the usage is there, with four games of 11+ targets, and with Minshew taking over quarterback duties I would expect to see more finishes closer to the top-12 than top-30. Two of Pittman’s top-12 finishes came in two of Minshew’s three starts. With Minshew running far less than Anthony Richardson did, the passing volume has increased providing more opportunities for Pittman and the pass-catchers. Pittman will be a solid WR2 with a safe floor and WR1 upside moving forward.
George Kittle (TE)
*Two rookie tight ends have more receptions
George Kittle has been a frustrating fantasy tight end in 2023. Kittle’s talent is undeniable, and although the 49ers are rich with talent on the offensive side of the ball, everyone thought Kittle would be more involved than he has been. In seven games, Kittle has five games of three or fewer receptions, and he only has 23 on the season. Both Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid, who are rookies, have more receptions than Kittle, with LaPorta catching 35 passes and Kincaid catching 25. In fact, with the injury to Dawson Knox, there is an argument to be made that both rookies will be better than Kittle for the rest of the season. Kittle’s two best weeks from an involvement standpoint came in week 3 and week 7. In week three he caught seven of nine targets for 90 yards and in week 7 he caught five of seven targets for 78 yards. Both weeks he was a top-5 tight end. His best fantasy week came in week 5 where he was TE1, but he only had three receptions. It just so happened that all three went for touchdowns, not something you can expect most weeks. The issue is in week 3 the 49ers were without Brandon Aiyuk and in week 7 they were without Deebo Samuel, so Kittle’s target share seems directly linked to their absence. If everyone is healthy, Kittle will be a risky start and not someone I would love to have in my lineup.
Darren Waller (TE)
*Most routes run by any tight end
After what was a very frustrating start to the 2023 season, Darren Waller seems to finally be developing into what those who drafted him believed him to be. In Waller’s first four weeks, he only had one top-5 finish at the tight end position, while finishing outside the top-15 the rest of those weeks. Since then he has had two top-8 finishes in three weeks and has been no worse than TE15. He has also seen an average of nearly nine targets per game the last three weeks and has run the most routes of any tight end in the NFL, running a route on 35% of snaps. It is smart for the Giants to start getting Waller more involved in the offense. Other than Saquon Barkley, Waller is the only other truly elite-level talent on the team. Young wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson could develop into reliable targets with some upside, but they aren’t quite there yet, and at this point we all know what Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, and Sterling Shepard provide. So making sure they get the ball into Waller’s hands makes a lot of sense. I would expect them to continue doing so, making Waller the top-12 option (with top-5 upside) everyone who drafted him hoped he’d be.
