Week 6 presented us with its fair share of challenges and surprises. Injuries to fantasy set-it-and-forget-it fantasy contributors like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and David Montgomery left fantasy managers (especially those with a losing record) to head to the waiver wire. In the same week, we saw the Eagles lose to the Jets, the 49ers lose to the Browns, and the Bills almost lose to the Giants. Only 12 teams scored 20 or more points (with only two scoring over 30) in what was one of the lowest fantasy football outputs of the season. Yet, there were still some interesting statistical nuggets when sifting through week 6 and seeing how it relates to the season overall. Some of these players may find themselves where they are despite what happened in week 6, while others are here partly due to what happened this past week. Either way, here are 10 facts that surprised me and may surprise you.
10 Surprising NFL Stats Heading Into Week 7
Justin Fields (QB)
*Has the 2nd best touchdown rate among all quarterbacks
It should surprise no one that Tagovailoa has the highest touchdown rate among all NLF quarterbacks. The Dolphins are stacked with elite talent at every phase of the game and are scoring points at a historic clip, and with the speed this offense possesses, it makes sense that Tagovailoa owns the best touchdown rate in the league at 7.1%. What may surprise some (or many) people to hear is that it isn’t Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts that are #2. It is Justin Fields, throwing touchdowns on 6.8% of his attempts. It is no secret that through the first few weeks of the season, Fields and the Bears’ offense looked lost and lacked any sort of identity, but then things began to click, and in the weeks to follow it looked like Fields was turning a corner. Then, in week 6, Fields suffered an unfortunate hand injury, ending (although it is unclear for how long) what was shaping up to be a promising season. Fields’ development has been directly linked to the talent of D.J. Moore, who showed his ability to get open and break off big plays constantly. It’s possible that the hand injury only keeps Fields out for a week or two (with a dislocated thumb, it’s all about grip strength), and if he does come back sooner rather than later, hopefully, he can pick up right where he left off and continue to throw touchdowns at a high rate.
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Jordan Love (QB)
*Has the worst completion percentage among starting quarterbacks
It may seem odd (with me recommending Love as a start this week) to find out that among all starting quarterbacks, Jordan Love has the worst completion percentage in the league, but it’s true (and yes, I still think he’s a good start this week.) To be fair to Love, his inefficiency hasn’t had a huge impact on his fantasy production. Before week 5 (a week in which he failed to surpass 8 fantasy points), Love had four straight games of 20+ points, scoring over 25 three times. He has also finished in the top 12 at the position three times. Now he comes off a bye against a Broncos defense that has been very friendly to running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks. Take your pick. None of that changes the fact that Love has only completed 90 of his 162 pass attempts or 55.6%. The good thing is he does provide some value with his legs with two touchdowns on the ground this season and has thrown eight touchdowns in five games, but if his completion percentage doesn’t improve, Love is going to be a matchup-dependent option, that you will likely only want to start as a bye week or injury fill-in. Even so, if I were struggling at quarterback this week, I would try to get Love into my lineup in what should be a plus matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)/Najee Harris (RB)
*Both were top 15 picks in PPR at the position and have zero touchdowns on the season. Neither are currently top 35 running backs
To say the seasons for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and third-year back Najee Harris have been disappointing would be an understatement. Through four games for Gibbs and five for Harris, neither has managed a single touchdown, whether on the ground or through the air. Even worse, Harris has only managed 1.8 receptions per contest. Gibbs has faired a bit better with 4.5 receptions per game. The issue (at least in the case of Gibbs) is not talent. Gibbs has looked electric when given a chance, but David Montgomery is the clear bell cow in this offense, leaving very little volume for Gibbs. As for Harris, he simply has not looked like the explosive player we were all hoping he would develop into. With Harris, volume has always been the key to his success, but he has gotten more than 15 touches in just one game this season because he is sharing the backfield with Jaylen Warren (something many analysts predicted.) Since week 1, Warren has gotten at least 10 touches in every game. With Gibbs having to contend with Montgomery’s 20 touches a game and Harris in an almost even split with Warren, I don’t see the path to touchdown or top-15 upside. There could be some hope for Gibbs, while Montgomery is out with a rib injury, but when Montgomery returns he will return to lead back duties. You might not be able to get much for Gibbs or Harris at this point, but in redraft formats, I would be trying to sell both if I could.
Travis Etienne (RB)
*Has the most carries in the NFL
Coming into the 2023 season, very few fantasy enthusiasts predicted Travis Etienne would receive bell cow usage in the Jaguars’ offense. With talented rookie Tank Bigsby being selected in the third round, many envisioned a split backfield, but through six weeks, Etienne has seen 80% of the snaps in four games and over 70% in every game. This has led to Etienne being the RB3 on the season, averaging over 19 fantasy points per game, and leading the league in carries with 113 (an average of nearly 19 per game.) If you include targets he is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most overall usage, but everyone expected that type of volume for McCaffrey. Etienne’s role in this offense has been a pleasant surprise. It is possible that as Bigsby continues to develop he begins to steal more of the workload away from Etienne. Running backs like Etienne who are used heavily in all facets of the game tend to get hurt (*see week 6 Christian McCaffrey.) As the most consistently productive piece of this offense, the Jaguars would be wise to do what they can to minimize that risk and keep Etienne healthy. Until that happens, though, Etienne will continue to see elite-level volume and remain a set-it-and-forget-it RB1 for fantasy.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
*Has the most targets and receiving yards of any running back
This one was very surprising to me given how underwhelming Jacobs’ fantasy production has been this season. He has begun to step it up over the last three weeks with three straight double-digit outings, after failing to hit that mark even once in the first three weeks. Yet, it hasn’t been his rushing prowess that has been getting the job done, it has been his usage in the passing game. Up to this point in the season Jacobs has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in every single game, but has a total of 35 targets and 209 receiving yards, both of which lead the position. Coming into the season the smart money would’ve been on players like Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, or even rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to lead in these categories, but through six weeks it is the 2022 rushing leader who currently wears the crown. There is still a lot of football left, so those running backs that profile more as dual threats could overtake Jacobs at some point, but on a team in need of explosive options behind Davante Adams I could see the Raiders continuing to rely heavily on Jacobs. If that happens, his schedule makes for many opportunities to produce. Currently the RB15 in half-PPR formats, with Jacobs’ schedule, if he maintains this usage, Jacobs should finish the season as a top 10 running back.
Rashid Shaheed (WR)
*Has the highest depth of target among wide receivers
2nd year Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is the definition of boom or bust. Through six weeks he has fantasy totals of 16.5, 8.3, 6, 4.8, 3.8, and 17.3. The difference between a top 12 finish and a top 50-60 one? Touchdowns. In those weeks that Shaheed manages to find his way into the end zone, he flirts with WR1 status. If he fails to score, he is outscored by most bench players. The positive with regards to Shaheed is that with an average depth of target of 18.22 yards (highest in the league), there is a realistic hope of a touchdown every week. Inserting Shaheed into your lineup comes with a lot of risk and a certain amount of faith that may be hard to come by depending on your record, but very few fantasy managers drafted Shaheed as anything more than a flex, and as such there are worse options. With Derek Carr appearing to be beyond the shoulder injury that has limited him most of the season, there should be more downfield opportunities for Shaheed, putting him once again in flex consideration.
Rashee Rice (WR)
*Lowest snap share and fewest routes run of any top 50 wide receiver
It may not be surprising to find that it is taking time for a rookie wide receiver to find his way onto the field, but when that rookie has looked like the best wide receiver on the team you would expect him to see more than 38.5% of snaps and to run a route more than 14.5% of the time. Although he has only hit more than 50% of snaps in one game, he has been utilized when on the field, seeing at least five targets in four of six games. I would expect both his snap share and routes run to increase as the season goes on. The Chiefs offense has not looked like the offense of old. Mahomes has been uncharacteristically average from both a real and fantasy standpoint, and the Chiefs have managed to score over 30 points just once this season in a week three contest against the Bears and their bottom-feeding defense. Getting an electric rookie involved who can make special things happen with the ball in his hands could be just what this team needs to start looking like a top-tier offense. It could be a trust issue, but the wide receiver room for the Chiefs is not a rogue gallery of special talent, so they’ve got nothing to lose by getting Rice more opportunities, something I expect to see happen in the next few weeks.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR)/Puka Nacua (WR)
*Tied with the most receptions in the league
Ja’Marr Chase being among the league leaders in receptions is a surprise to no one, but when rookie Puka Nacua outpaces names like Diggs, Hill, and Allen, people take notice. It’s easy to look at Nacua’s inclusion atop the reception leaders and point out that he had four games without Cooper Kupp, causing an inflated stat line that will not be sustainable now that Kupp is back. I am sympathetic to that argument, but even with Kupp in the lineup the last two weeks, Nacua has seen 18 targets. Any narrative stating that Nacua would be irrelevant once Kupp returns seems to be premature. Nacua is going to remain heavily involved in this offense. He might not be able to maintain his status as the WR8, but a top 12 finish by season’s end seems realistic. If you were lucky enough to grab Nacua off waivers a few weeks back then congrats. You got a WR2 with WR1 upside, but are likely able to use him in your flex. If you’re also the Chase owner then even better. Chase may have had a slow start to the season but after four straight weeks ranging from 10.8-44.7 fantasy points in half-PPR formats, he is the WR7. His success should continue now that Burrow looks like he’s finally healthy and looking Chase’s way early and often, giving him 32 targets over the last two weeks. Both Chase and Nacua will continue to rack up targets, receptions, and points. Good luck to anyone going against them.
Cade Otton (TE)
*Highest snap share among tight ends
If I had asked you to guess before the season who would have the highest snap share among tight ends at this point in the season, you probably would not have said 2nd-year Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Otton currently enjoys a 96.4% snap share but has yet to produce for fantasy. That is likely a product of teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin soaking up Baker Mayfield’s targets. Mike Evans also limits Otton’s touchdown upside as Mayfield’s preferred option in the red zone, but as the season progresses we could see Otton get more involved in the offense. Otton is not an elite talent at the position but he provides a reliable mid-range target for Mayfield, who is performing better than most expected coming into the season. I would not recommend putting Otton in your starting lineup anytime soon, but if you have the bench space, it might be worth it to add Otton to your bench and see if his targets, receptions, and production increase.
All Tight Ends
*No tight end has more than three touchdowns this season
In six games, three touchdowns for a tight end might seem pretty good, but it is a bit surprising that no tight end has surpassed that number. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are arguably the number one targets for their team. T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta are quickly emerging as the second option in the passing game for their teams. Out of those teams, only the Ravens don’t throw it more than 33 times a game, and even they have thrown at a higher rate than we are used to, so you would expect a few more touchdowns for their talented tight ends. Beyond that you have players like Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, and Kyle Pitts, all of whom have had spike weeks, but have mostly disappointed from a fantasy perspective, and none of whom have more than one touchdown. The tight end position is historically difficult to predict in fantasy, but this year, with very few elite options providing consistent production, it is even harder to get a read on.
