10 Surprising NFL Stats Heading Into Week Six

Surprising NFL Stats

Is it week 6 already? Yes, yes it is. Week five was one for the record books as we saw some players go nuclear like Justin Fields, D.J. Moore, and Ja’Marr Chase. We were also dealt several injuries, two of which are going to be devastating to fantasy teams. While very little has officially been released, it appears Justin Jefferson and De’Von Achane are going to be out multiple weeks. We also lost Khalil Herbert and James Conner, but it’s Jefferson and Achane whose absence will be felt the most. If you’re 5-0 or 4-1 you may be able to ride these injuries out, unless they linger for more than a few weeks, but if you’re 0-5 or 1-4 and either of these players are on your roster, it might be time to make a trade and try to save your season. But beyond the obvious dominant performances and heartbreaking injuries, there are less obvious observations to be made, many of which are hard to believe, and some that might actually be able to help us feel more confident in our current lineup or convince us to move on from certain players that are holding us back. Here are this week’s surprising NFL stats.

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10 Surprising NFL Stats Heading Into Week 6

Daniel Jones (QB)

*Jones has thrown two touchdowns on the season, both in week 2

Five weeks into the season Daniel Jones (and the entire Giants offense) has been a disappointment. What you may not know is just how bad Jones has been for fantasy in 2023. Jones has only thrown for two touchdowns on the season, both coming in a week two matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. On top of that, he has only thrown for over 200 yards twice in five games and over 300 once. In the other three games, Jones failed to hit 140 yards through the air. None of this is good for fantasy, but the lack of touchdowns has to be the major contributor to his lackluster performances. Other than the matchup against the Cardinals (where he finished as the QB1 on the week) he hasn’t scored double-digit points in any of the remaining contests. Now he’s dealing with a neck injury that should keep him sidelined for some time. Needless to say, those who invested in Jones in the late rounds hoping they got a steal, cannot be happy with the return on that investment. Unless they were able to load up on studs at other positions that have kept them afloat, anyone starting Jones every week likely has a losing record.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

*Highest completion % under pressure

No one drafted Baker Mayfield to be their starter in fantasy, but most people also didn’t expect Mayfield to be playing as well as he has been. In four games, Mayfield has three 20+ fantasy performances, which includes seven touchdowns to go along with just two interceptions. He has also looked poised and in control, getting the ball out quickly to his talented receivers. Where he has really thrived, though, is when he finds himself under pressure. Baker Mayfield has the highest completion percentage when under pressure, hitting on a whopping 84.6% of passes when facing pressure. To put this into context, the next closest is Dak Prescott and Anthony Richardson with 66.7%, and on the other side of the spectrum is Trevor Lawrence (a consensus top 12 fantasy QB) with a 28% completion rate when under pressure (lowest in the league), so Mayfield has been better than advertised in 2023. Mayfield’s career has been an up-and-down rollercoaster of promise and underperforming, so it remains to be seen if he can keep this level of performance up. It is possible that he finally finds himself in the perfect situation on a team that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. Only time will tell, but so far so good.

De’Von Achane (RB)

*Most yards per carry in the NFL

De’Von Achane has been an absolute revelation this year. He has only seen double-digit carries in two games and yet he is the RB3 on the season with scores of 49.3, 25.5, and 21 in half-PPR formats. He was beginning to look like a clear league-winning waiver wire pickup, and then the news broke that he’s dealing with a knee injury that is going to sideline him for multiple weeks. Yet with finishes of RB1, RB4, and RB4 the last three weeks no one can take away from him what he has been able to do, but you may not know just how good he has been. Through five weeks Achane leads the league in yards per carry with a ridiculous 12.11. Some may look at that and say it’s not sustainable because it’s largely due to flukey big plays that have beefed up his yards per carry. Normally I would agree because those big plays can’t be counted on every week, but Achane has had a carry of 50+ yards each of the last three weeks. He’s that rare player who seems to be able to make those splash plays week in and week out because he is simply faster than the defenses he’s facing. Do I think had he not gotten hurt we could’ve counted on a big play every week? Probably not. But there is a very real possibility that we would’ve seen them more often than not. Teams that are going to be without his services for the next few weeks are going to be hard-pressed to replace his production. Hopefully, he recovers quickly and returns to wreak havoc on opposing defenses very soon.

Josh Jacobs (RB)

*Fewest yards per carry of any starter in the NFL

In 2022, Josh Jacobs was a fantasy star and the rushing leader in real football. He was the type of player that won people championships. Then the 2023 offseason came and with talk of a holdout fantasy managers everywhere were nervous and unsure of what to do about Jacobs. Luckily that issue got shelved prior to the season and owners were once again excited to select Jacobs to their teams. Unfortunately, he has not looked like the same player from 2022 rushing for a league-low 2.68 yards per carry. Some of this is due to the offensive line not doing their job, but much of it is also on Jacobs who has not looked as explosive as last season. Some of the lack of success is understandable. Jacobs did miss a lot of time during the offseason and preseason, so it was expected that it may take some time for him to get back up to speed, but in week five he faced the Green Bay Packers, a team that opponents have been able to run on this season, and Jacobs still only managed 3.5 yards per carry. Luckily he has been heavily involved in the passing game and has scored the last two weeks making him top 12 at the position in half-PPR formats, but it has not been pretty to watch. I still believe better days are ahead for Jacobs. He gets to face New England this week and Chicago in week seven. If he isn’t able to muster more than four yards a carry against them (especially Chicago) then it may be time to worry, but for now, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Kyren Williams (RB)

*Has seen a stacked box 0% of the time

I had to do a double-take when looking at Kyren Williams’ advanced metrics this week. First, I was surprised to find that he is the RB5 on the season. Secondly, I thought it had to be a mistake, based on his lack of efficiency, that he has seen a stacked box on 0% of snaps, but that is, in fact, the case. Normally that would lead to plenty of space to run and a solid yards per carry average, but Williams has only managed 3.87 yards per attempt. His fantasy success has been solely dependent on volume and touchdowns. The possibility does exist that he isn’t very good, but any running back getting the type of volume Williams is, needs to be in lineups until things change. There is also some reason for optimism. After three straight weeks averaging under four yards per carry, Williams has averaged over four yards per carry the last two weeks, one of which was against a stout Philadelphia run defense. But in weeks where he fails to score a touchdown or be heavily involved in the passing game (of which there were two such weeks), he finds it difficult to surpass the double-digit fantasy point mark. This lack of upside is why it’s hard to recommend Williams as an RB1 in any given week, but as a low-end RB2 or a high-end flex play, you could do a lot worse.

Tutu Atwell (WR)

*Tied for Justin Jefferson for the most routes run by any wide receiver in the NFL

If I had asked you to name the player tied with Justin Jefferson for the highest percentage of routes run who would you have said? Stefon Diggs? Ja’Marr Chase? Tyreek Hill? Wrong. Wrong. And Wrong. That player would be Tutu Atwell. With the return of Cooper Kupp that number should fall, but in week five with a healthy Kupp Atwell was still out there for nearly 90% of snaps. The issue with Atwell is that his utilization went way down. It doesn’t matter how many routes you’re running or what your snap share is if the ball is not going your way. After seeing at least eight targets in each of the first four games, Atwell only managed five targets, catching two for nine yards and a score, while Kupp and Nacua soaked up targets, 12 and 11 respectively. Atwell is having his best season by far, but with a healthy Kupp and the emergence of rookie Nacua, I don’t see there being enough volume to go around to make Atwell any more than a flex-worthy dart throw. If either Kupp or Nacua were to miss time, then Atwell could be a difference maker, but right now all we can count on is Atwell getting a lot of cardio.

Michael Pittman (WR)/Devonta Smith (WR)

*Tied for the highest snap share among wide receivers

This surprised me, especially when you have players like Jefferson, Diggs, Moore, and Chase out there who are the clear cream of the crop on their team. Yet, through five weeks it is Michael Pittman and Devonta Smith who are seeing the highest snap share with 98.6% of snaps. The unfortunate thing is that this volume has not led to fantasy production. Neither Pittman nor Smith are currently even a WR2 in 12-team leagues. With Pittman, a player that had an ADP of WR32 this is easier to stomach since he’s currently the WR26, but Smith, drafted as a borderline WR1 in fantasy actually ranks lower than Pittman through five weeks. With how much they are on the field, I expect the fortune of both players to change at some point. This could happen as early as week six for Pittman. Anthony Richardson is unlikely to play, which means Gardner Minshew will draw the start. As a more prolific passer than Richardson and being unlikely to take off and run with the ball, Minshew could help the production of all the Colts’ pass catchers. With Smith, it’s simply a bet on talent. He was a top-10 wide receiver last season, so I imagine the Eagles will make it a point to find ways to get him more involved as the season progresses. For owners who are patient, both Pittman and Smith should be weekly contributors sooner rather than later.

D.J. Moore (WR)

*Highest average depth of target in the NFL

Undoubtedly, Moore’s average depth of target was bolstered by a week five that saw him go for 230 yards and three touchdowns on eight receptions. That’s what we call upside. Moore currently has the highest average depth of target among any top 12 PPR WR. There are players like Gabe Davis, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amari Cooper who do have a higher average depth of target, but they aren’t getting as many targets or doing as much with them to land themselves in the top 12 at the position. After the first three weeks which saw Fields and the Bears offense get off to a slow start, Moore has finished as the WR7 and WR1 in half-PPR formats, seeing at least nine targets in each game, going for 361 yards and four touchdowns. Moore has been on fire. Much of this success is due to Moore himself as he is also second in the league in yards after the catch, behind only Tyreek Hill. This type of production may not be sustainable, especially as they face stiffer competition than the Broncos and Commanders, but Moore should remain a set-it-and-forget WR1 as a hyper-targeted centerpiece of this offense. Moore has always suffered from poor quarterback play. Coming into the season Fields was largely considered the best quarterback of Moore’s career, and if Fields has turned a corner as a passer, trips to the end zone could be a regular occurrence for Moore. Keep firing him up.

Evan Engram (TE)

*Zero red zone targets

Yes, you read that right. Through five weeks, 6’3”, 240 1bs., Evan Engram has zero red zone targets, and Trevor Lawrence is attempting 36 passes per game. The lack of red zone usage makes his TE7 status that more impressive. Engram has seen eight targets in four of five games. That type of consistent usage is tough to find at the tight end position, so if you have Engram it’s hard to be disappointed by what he has provided, but after you get past the top three at the position, the ability to score touchdowns is what separates the top tier guys from the mediocre middle-of-the-pack players. Perhaps this shouldn’t come as a huge surprise since Engram only managed four touchdowns in 2022, but when an offense that was projected to be among the best in the league is underperforming, averaging just 21 points per game, it makes sense to try to get your big playmakers more involved. Perhaps that will happen, but if recent history is anything to go by it could be awhile before we see Engram dancing in the end zone.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

*TE1 on the season

You hear it every year. Avoid rookie tight ends. More than any position, it takes them some time to acclimate to the NFL game. Very few, if any, ever produce in their rookie seasons. While that is historically true and is mostly proving true in 2023 there is one clear exception to this rule, Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is currently the TE1 on the season finishing as a TE1 in 12 team leagues four of five weeks. Even more impressive is that he’s done so while seeing six or fewer targets in four of the first five games of his career and only scoring three touchdowns. Coming into the 2023 season the hot rookie tight end sleeper was Buffalo Bills’ Dalton Kincaid. That made sense. He’s on a team that can put up points in a hurry and that passes at a high rate, but perhaps we were all sleeping on LaPorta. LaPorta may have landed in the best situation of any of the rookie tight ends to find fantasy success. Behind star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions were looking for a second reliable option in the passing game. Some thought it might be rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs or veteran Josh Reynolds and while they have both found some success, it has been LaPorta that has been the most consistent second option for quarterback Jared Goff. LaPorta is proving to be a matchup nightmare who constantly finds ways to get open, and yet he still has room to grow. As he continues to develop he may become one of the most dominant players at the position in the league. If that happens he could win some fantasy managers a championship.