Fantasy Football Recap
This week was a disappointing week for fantasy managers who used a high draft pick on players like Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Isiah Pacheco. Each of them will miss a significant amount of time, forcing those who count on their services to scramble to find a backup plan. But as disheartening as the week was, it was also exciting and surprising. Players are either over-performing or under-performing to a ridiculous degree. Below are 10 takeaways from the first two weeks of the season that should surprise all of us. No one knows what the football season holds, or how things will end up, but for now, these are 10 of the most intriguing storylines.
Derek Carr (QB)
*No. 2 Fantasy QB
We truly are in an upside-down world. Derek Carr as the No. 2 fantasy QB through two weeks is something no one had on their 2024 Fantasy Football bingo card. Still, with unmatched (and probably unsustainable) efficiency that is exactly where Carr finds himself. Carr has only attempted 39 passes in two games, but he has completed 30 for 443 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception. This type of success is unlikely to continue, but Carr has a very QB-friendly fantasy schedule so finishing among the top 10-12 QBs is not out of the question.
Brock Purdy (QB)
*Most passing yards in the league, but barely a top 20 QB
Coming into the season there were some questions surrounding the San Francisco offense. First, there was the potential hold out of Brandon Aiyuk and the question of whether or not he’d play. Then there was Christian McCaffrey and whether his injury was serious. Next was Brock Purdy himself and whether he could support multiple fantasy-relevant assets. The answer to those questions seems to be yes, yes, and TBD. But with Deebo Samuel poised to be sidelined for multiple games, Purdy could find success difficult. He may still continue to gain decent yardage, but points and staying inside the top 20 at the position could be too much to ask.
Alvin Kamara (RB)
*Most touchdowns among running backs
People keep expecting the bottom to fall out for Alvin Kamara and he keeps proving the doubters wrong. Two weeks into the season Kamara is the RB1 and has scored more touchdowns (5) than any running back in the league. Kamara has also had 20 or more opportunities in each game and beyond the scoring he has also gained nearly 300 total yards. Perhaps we should all stop doubting Kamara. The Saints are a team in need of playmakers. While Chris Olave will be involved, and you’ll get the occasional boom game for Rashid Shaheed or Taysom Hill, Kamara is going to be the focal point of this offense, and that will continue to lead to fantasy production.
RB Success
*Only four running backs drafted in the first three rounds are currently in the top 12 at the position
The beginning of the season has not been kind to running backs drafted in the first three rounds. Of the current top 12 fantasy running backs only four (Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, and James Cook) were top 36 picks. While it’s only two weeks, those who adopted a hero or zero-RB strategy look pretty smart. There are still a lot of games to be played so I’m not ready to say this trend will continue, but with how these running backs are playing it could be difficult for anyone to knock them out of the top 12. If you landed any of these players in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft, congratulations.
Justin Jefferson (WR)
*Only wide receiver in the top 12 with a first-round ADP
In most leagues, there were six wide receivers (Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown) taken in Round 1. At times, this number grew to as high as eight when Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua snuck into the backend of the first round. Yet, only Jefferson (a player many experts and analysts were unsure about because of his situation) is currently in the top 12. I would expect many of those names to finish the season as a WR1, but for now, it looks like the general consensus that wide receiver is deep and there’s a ton of value at the position in the middle rounds was correct.
Chris Godwin (WR)
*No. 1 WR in half and full-PPR formats
This preseason the conversation surrounding Chris Godwin was that he was going to be moving back to the slot which is a more natural fit for a player with his skill set. That is exactly what has happened and it has not taken long for Godwin to find success. Through two weeks Godwin is tied for second in the league in receiving yards (200) and is the overall WR1 in half and full-PPR formats. Even more impressive is that he has caught 15 of 16 targets and has found the end zone each week. Godwin has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy this season and there’s no reason to expect that to end any time soon.
Alec Pierce (WR)
*Has the highest depth of target in the league
Alec Pierce will be a popular waiver wire pick-up this week. He is sixth in receiving with 181 yards, has scored twice, and is a top-five WR in half-PPR. He has accomplished this on far fewer targets than those above him, largely due to his league-leading average depth of target of 39.7 yards. It’s possible that he is simply benefiting from the absence of Josh Downs who many, myself included, consider to be the superior athlete. But as long as Pierce is starting and getting 85-95% of the snaps, he should be able to produce.
Hunter Henry (TE)
*Had 73% of the Patriots receiving yards
The talent has never been an issue for Hunter Henry. His issue has been health and opportunity. While health is impossible to predict, it looks as if Henry will have all the opportunities he could hope for in New England. This past Sunday against Seattle, Henry hauled in eight receptions for 109 yards. The Patriots had 149 passing yards total. That means Henry accounted for over 73% of the team’s yardage. On top of this, 12 of 27 targets went Henry’s way. That type of target share can’t be counted on every week, but Henry should continue to be the focal point of the passing game and as such you could do a lot worse.
Brock Bowers (TE)
*Leads all tight ends in receiving yards
First-year tight ends typically find success elusive in their rookie campaign. But not every rookie tight end is Brock Bowers. After the first two weeks of the 2024 season, Bowers leads all tight ends in receiving with 156 yards. He also has 17 targets and 15 receptions over that same span. He has yet to score, but I can only imagine it is a matter of time before Bowers finds his way to the end zone. Anyone who took a chance by drafting Bowers later in drafts seems to have hit the jackpot. Bowers should be a top option at the position for years.
Brandon Aubrey (K) and Ka’imi Fairbairn (K)
*More fantasy points than all but two wide receivers in half-PPR formats
So far 2024 is the year of the kicker. Kickers have been scoring double-digit fantasy points at an insane rate through the first two weeks of the season. But at the top of the 2024 kicker mountaintop stand Brandon Aubrey and Ka’imi Fairbairn. Aubrey and Fairbairn have scored more fantasy points than all but two wide receivers in half-PPR formats. Perhaps this is an indictment on the state of the wide receiver position as well, but it’s still an impressive accomplishment. As long as kickers continue to produce at this rate the argument to get rid of the position in fantasy may not gain traction, especially if you have one of the premier options on your squad.
