DFS Golf Picks
The Mayakoba Golf Classic
Pull in information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic, and take a look at FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your daily fantasy lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from two weeks ago: We had a week off from PGA Tour golf and DFS play as a result, but things are back in motion again this week before we give way to the holidays and the new year, 2021. It was a challenging week at the RSM Classic with many regular cut makers and elite players failing to play the weekend, and it resulted in a bad ROI for many of us regular DFS golf users. Congrats to Robert Streb who fended off Kevin Kisner in a playoff to win the RSM Classic/McGladrey Classic for the second time in six years.
Preview for the Mayakoba Golf Classic: The PGA Tour moves from Sea Island, Georgia, to Playa del Carmen, Mexico, for the Mayakoba Golf Classic – an event that has existed since 2007 and the first PGA Tour tournament in Mexico this century. The past 5 winners of the Mayakoba Golf Classic: 2019 – Brendon Todd, 2018 – Matt Kuchar (who set the tournament record at -22), 2017 – Patton Kizzire, 2016 – Pat Perez, and 2015 – Graeme McDowell. Note that the winners from 2015 to 2017 won the event when it was named the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.
Elevate your PGA Tour DFS contest wins: Increase your odds to win more DFS golf contests using these helpful data tools and analytics.
Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $7.2M, the winner receives $1.296M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: This year’s Mayakoba Golf Classic will be held, as per usual, at the El Camaleon Golf Club – the track is a par 71, is a short 7,039 yards, and the greens consist of paspalum grass which is quite uncommon on PGA Tour courses. Some of the key stats to take into account this week are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach, and Par 5s, Birdies or Better Gained, and Bogeys Avoided.
The field: The field size is 132 players, and the top 65 players plus ties will get the opportunity to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. On a scale ranging from A to D, the field strength is a B- thanks to some superstar golfers in the field. We will get to see some big names at this event who also happen to be some of the world’s best golfers right now including Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, and Russell Henley.
Notable storylines: To date at this event, there has never been a Mexican champion, but that all could change this year with Carlos Ortiz playing some solid golf by winning the Houston Open earlier this month and he was runner up here last year. Abraham Ancer is also a Mexican-born threat to win this tournament as he finished T13 at the Masters and was T8 here a year ago. Interestingly enough, 77% of past Mayakoba winners were in their 30s.
Some bold predictions:
- This isn’t so bold but I believe Justin Thomas will get the job done this week and win for the first time since early August.
- Mexico’s best hope for the win this week, Abraham Ancer, gets into the final group on Sunday but loses in heartbreaking fashion to Thomas in a playoff.
- Carlos Ortiz will be much talked about this week since he’s coming off his first PGA Tour win at the Houston Open and was runner up here last year, but outside of last year, he hasn’t been overly great at this event and players often miss the cut when they previously won. I predict a finish outside the top 40 for Ortiz this week.
Betting strategy this week: Even though there is a cut line this week, the field is smaller than many of the cut-based events on the PGA Tour, so you can be a bit more aggressive than you normally would be when encountering a 144 or 156 player field. There is a bunch of win equity at the top this week so I would advise going with a stars and scrubs/hybrid approach in GPPs, and you can deploy a more balanced mindset in cash games starting in the $9K range to maximize your chances of getting 6 player lineups into the weekend.
All the best for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well.
The $10K+ Range
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $11.4K, FanDuel – $12.6K) – Thomas is considered to be the best iron player in the world, and when his putter is working he usually has a top 5 finish or a win as a result. Thomas has been solid this season in his first four starts including a T8 at the U.S. Open and a standalone 4th at the Masters in his most recent start. He hasn’t played this tournament in six years but that shouldn’t matter as he’s still likely good for a top 10 finish, and has the most win equity of any player in the field – pay up for JT!
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K, FanDuel – $11.4K) – After being snubbed from playing this year’s Masters, I think we are going to see an extra driven Berger this week in Mexico. Berger hasn’t been at his best just yet this season but sure finished last season hot with numerous top 10’s down the stretch. Much like JT, Berger hasn’t played this tournament in six years but his skill and play speak for itself and he should have his best finish to date this season this week.
Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K, FanDuel – $12.2K) – Koepka was struggling for a while there with lots of poor finishes and missed cuts but seems to be righting the ship now as he had a T5 and a T7 in his last two starts at the Houston Open and the Masters, respectively. He seems to have rededicated himself to his swing and game, and the results are starting to pay off. Like the other two studs above, he doesn’t have much of a track record at this tournament but don’t factor that into your lineup building decision-making process.
The $9K Range
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K, FanDuel – $10.8K) – Conners has upped his game over his past three starts including top 10’s at the Masters and the ZOZO Championship, and was also T24 at the Houston Open. I suggest riding his hot wave because he’s a tremendous ball-striker who can get around well at most golf courses on the PGA Tour. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2018 – Missed the cut and 2017 – 75th.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – Zalatoris stormed onto the PGA Tour last season with a T6 at the U.S. Open and has two other top 8 finishes since as well in four starts. He’s coming off a T16 at the Bermuda Championship and I think he should provide another top 20 again this week.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – Ancer is consistent from tournament to tournament and has 6 top 10’s in his last 26 starts so he’s a solid finisher too. Had Ancer not had a disappointing finishing round at the Masters, we could be talking about him as a green jacket owner and the top threat to win this week in his homeland of Mexico. Nonetheless, he’s in great form and should be in the mix to win this week since he has also been solid at this event over the years as well. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T8, 2018 – T21, 2017 – T9, 2016 – T55, and 2015 – Missed the cut.
The $8K Range
Sebastian Munoz (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K, FanDuel – $10.1K) – Munoz was really rolling with excellent finishes on some of the toughest tracks and most stacked fields until two weeks ago when he missed the cut at The RSM Classic. I expect him to get back on another hot streak this week in Mexico and you should take advantage – especially considering his ownership could be down a bit more than normal this week. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Missed the cut and 2018 – T64.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K, FanDuel – $7.0K) – How Harman is only $7K on FanDuel is beyond me, so be sure to take advantage of his wrong salary number if you play on FD as it should be closer to $10K! Like Munoz, Harman missed the cut at the RSM in his last start but before that, he had made 11 straight cut lines with many finishes in the teens, 20s, and 30s. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T72, 2018 – T68, 2016 – T55, and 2015 – T40.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – Kizzire’s price tag keeps climbing but it’s warranted as he’s playing well right now with back to back top 11’s and he’s only missed one cut in his last 8 starts. The former Mayakoba champ could keep his hot streak alive this week and offers pretty good value at $8K flat if he does. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T58, 2018 – T55, 2017 – Won the tournament and 2015 – T58.
The $7K Range
Harold Varner III (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K, FanDuel – $9.7K) – HV3 can be characterized as a high risk/high reward type of player as he has 3 top 15’s in his last 7 events with 3 missed cuts during that same span. You likely won’t want to use him in cash games, but he’s worth a look in GPP play. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T58, 2018 – T6, 2016 – Missed the cut, and 2015 – T5.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K, FanDuel – $9.2K) – McCarthy was on a pretty good streak with two top 6’s in three starts before missing the cut in his last event at The RSM Classic. He only has 2 missed cuts in his last 13 starts so he’s quite consistent and you can rely on him this week. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T48, 2018 – T41, and 2017 – T68.
The $6K Range
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $6.4K, FanDuel – $7.5K) – Let’s be honest here – the $6K range on DK is quite weak this week so you should likely have minimal players in this range on your lineups. Lebioda missed the cut two weeks ago but previous to that he had a T16 and a T21 and three straight made cuts. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Missed the cut.
Adam Schenk (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – Schenk was a cut making monster with 11 straight, then he missed a cut, but was T48 two weeks ago so he may get back into a consistent groove again. He’s likely the best bet in the $6K range this week, and FYI, I may only play Schenk in the $6K range this week unless I find some hidden gems via deeper research as the week wears on. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Missed the cut, 2018 – T48, and 2017 – T34.
Tom Hoge (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K, FanDuel – $8.0K) – Hoge had only missed one cut in 10 starts but has more recently missed two straight cuts, so that streak could stretch to three this week or he could get on another good roll – time will tell. Mayakoba finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Missed the cut, 2018 – Missed the cut, 2017 – T61, and 2015 – T63.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from the last event, The RSM Classic
The $10K+ Range
- Webb Simpson – T37
- Sungjae Im – Missed the cut
- Russell Henley – T30
The $9K Range
- Louis Oosthuizen – Missed the cut
- Sebastian Munoz – Missed the cut
- Harris English – T6
The $8K Range
- Corey Conners – T10
- Brian Harman – Missed the cut
- Doc Redman – Missed the cut
The $7K Range
- Denny McCarthy – Missed the cut
- Cameron Davis – Missed the cut
- Talor Gooch – Missed the cut
The $6K Range
- Patton Kizzire – T10
- Michael Gligic – Missed the cut
- James Hahn -Missed the cut
