DFS Golf Picks
Take in information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2020 Vivint Houston Open, and check out FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to inject more polished selections to your daily fantasy lineups. All the best this week!
Recap from last week: Last week saw 48-year-old Brian Gay win in a playoff against Wyndham Clark at the Bermuda Championship thanks to a well-earned birdie on the very first playoff hole. This was Gay’s 5th PGA Tour win and his first since 2013 when he won the Humana Challenge, so a big congrats to the grizzled vet for getting back into the win column!
Preview for this week: The PGA Tour returns to the United States this week after spending last week in beautiful Bermuda. Houston, Texas, is the destination for this week’s event – one that has been going since 1946 but will be on a course that current players have never competed on before, however, this tournament was played here – the last time in 1963. The winners at this event over the past five years include: 2019 – Lanto Griffin, 2018 – Ian Poulter, 2017 – Russell Henley, 2016 – Jim Herman, and 2015 – J.B. Holmes.
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is $7M, the winner takes home $1.26M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: This year’s Vivint Houston Open will be played at the Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course, it’s a par 72, is 7,432 yards in length, and the greens consist of Bermudagrass. Some of the key stats to look at are: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Par 5s, and Birdies or Better Gained.
The field: We again get a near full-field this week with 132 players set to do battle, and the top 65 plus ties get the honor of playing the weekend rounds. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C+ with the world’s top-ranked golfer, Dustin Johnson, set to return from his COVID-19 absence over the past few weeks, and 13 of the top 50 ranked players in the world are in Houston this week.
Notable storylines: There will again be a limited number of fans this week to take in the action in Houston, some 2,000 fans per day. Lanto Griffin will look to defend his championship, albeit, on a different course than he won on last year when the event took place at the Golf Club of Houston. Vivint is sponsoring this tournament for the first time, and this event precedes the Masters Tournament which is set to take place next week as per usual in Augusta, Georgia.
Some bold predictions:
- Dustin Johnson fails to crack the top 5 but has a strong round 4 to give him good momentum heading into the Masters next week.
- Tony Finau puts together a solid performance in all 4 rounds to win the tournament by two strokes.
- Adam Schenk makes his 12th straight cut line.
Lineup building strategy this week: There’s decent talent at the top of the field and depth throughout so a stars and scrubs approach is certainly in play, but for most of my lineups, I’ll be taking a balanced approach for making up my overall strategy. I’m a tad hesitant to use Dustin Johnson in a good number of lineups this week as most players have comeback slowly post COVID-19 diagnosis, so I’m waiting to see how he fares in Houston before I decide on how to play him next week at the Masters Tournament.
All the best for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well.
The $10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K, FanDuel – $12.2K) – Johnson is back in time for some warm-up rounds before the Masters next week. He could be just using this tournament as a way to shake off the rust and I’m not too sure what to expect from him but if he was outside of the top 10 or 20 I wouldn’t be surprised. He has two wins, two runner ups, and a T6 over his past five starts and was clearly the best player before testing positive for COVID-19. I have to think that he’s been hitting lots of balls during his time off but there’s a big difference between that and competitive PGA Tour rounds. Keep an eye on him to see how he’s feeling, what shape his game is in, and what he’s expecting out of this week before locking him into lineups on Thursday morning. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2016 – 3rd.
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K, FanDuel – $11.5K) – Finau came back from COVID-19 quite well as he placed T11 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP late last month, proving it’s possible to maintain fine form despite having the virus. Finau has 6 top 11’s over his past 9 starts and three of those were top 5’s. I feel quite good about his stock this week, the only thing I don’t like is that he’s the second most expensive player on DK but he could be worth the high price tag in the end. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2018 – T24, 2017 – T34, and 2015 – T42.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K, FanDuel – $11.7K) – Hatton won three starts ago on the European Tour in a premier event – the BMW PGA Championship, he followed that up with a T3 at The CJ Cup and was T28 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in his most recent start so his game is in pretty fine shape right now. He has 8 top 10’s in his last 15 starts and two of those are victories including winning at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The $9K Range
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K, FanDuel – $11.2K) – Henley has been so strong over his last 6 events finishing no worse than T27 and has a T4 and a T3 over his last two starts. Based on his recent results and his strong finishes at the Houston Open he should likely be priced higher but at well under $10K on DK I like the value he brings to lineups this week. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T61, 2018 – T8, 2017 – Won the tournament, 2016 – T5, and 2015 – 4th.
Sergio Garcia (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – I’ve been off of Garcia for a long time now but he’s starting to look better as of late as he won the Sanderson Farms Championship a month ago and was T21 at The CJ Cup in his most recent start against a world-class field. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2016 – T72, and 2015 – T37.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – Hovland hasn’t missed a cut in many months now which is great but hasn’t finished top 10 since his T3 at the Workday Charity Open back in July. On a positive note though, he has 4 top 20’s in his past 6 starts and those were at tough events including the U.S. Open, playoff events, and The CJ Cup. None of his stats really stand out but he’s consistent throughout his bag including 22nd in the tee to green category which is a key stat for all courses really.
The $8K Range
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K, FanDuel – $10.5K) – It was just a matter of time before Griffin moved out of the $6K and $7K ranges and this is the week since he’s the defending champion of this event and his form has been solid lately with 5 top 19’s over his last 8 tournaments including a T7 and a T11 over his last two at top-caliber events. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Won the tournament, and 2018 – Missed the cut.
Stewart Cink (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K, FanDuel – $9.4K) – Cink has been outstanding in three of his past four starts with a win at the Safeway Open, a T12, and was T4 last week. Had he not shot an 81 in his final round at the Shriners two starts ago, he would likely have 4 straight 15’s – not bad for a 47-year-old. The good times should continue this week in Houston. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T9, 2017 – T23, 2016 – T33, and 2015 – T50.
Doc Redman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K, FanDuel – $10.4K) – Redman has been striking the ball very well over the past few months and is in the top 35 for a few stats this season including tee to green, strokes gained: total, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: approach. He has two T3’s and a T4 over his last 6 starts – the T4 was last week in Bermuda. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T13.
The $7K Range
Adam Schenk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K, FanDuel – $8.7K) – Schenk has now made 11 cuts in a row which is better than all PGA Tour players except for Rahm, Schauffele, McIlroy, and Hovland, who have longer streaks. Something I like seeing is that his finishes over the last five events keep getting better – T61-T56-T32-T27-T26. I’m not sure if the trend will continue but I do like him to make the cut for the 12th consecutive event and he does have top 30 upside.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K, FanDuel – $9.6K) – McCarthy has been consistent since mid-July with just one missed cut in 11 starts, and he has a T4, a T6, and a T9 during that stretch. The supreme putter has recently started to improve his tee to green game and evidence comes with a T4 and T6 in his last three starts. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T9, and 2018 – T43.
Lee Westwood (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K, FanDuel – $9.5K) – We haven’t seen Westwood on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open where he had a T13 and he has made 9 straight cuts – 8 of them on the European Tour. I suspect that he’s tuning his game up for the Masters next week and think he should do quite well this week. He has 8 straight top 34’s and I do believe that he will extend that number to 9 come Sunday. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2018 – T80, 2017 – Missed the cut, 2016 – Missed the cut, 2015 – Missed the cut.
The $6K Range
Beau Hossler (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – Hossler has now made 6 straight cuts coming into this week and his second-best finish during that stretch was last week where he finished T26. The California-native won’t likely get a top 10 this week but should make the cut and could finish in the top 35 to more than pay off his salary numbers. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T13, 2018 – 2nd, and 2017 – T39.
Tom Hoge (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – $8.1K) – Hoge has been steady since late July with just one missed cut in 10 starts and 4 of those have been top 29’s. He does have 3 top 10’s over his past 29 starts too so he will pop every once in a while. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Missed the cut, 2018 – T60, 2017 – T65, and 2015 – T65.
Austin Cook (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – Cook has been quite consistent since late June with only a single missed cut in his last 9 starts and has just two missed cuts in his last 12 starts – not bad for a regular $6K player. Best of all, he’s coming off a runner-up performance at the Shriners last month so he should have a good level of confidence right now. Aside from around the green and putting, his stats are quite decent and those should remain intact this week as well. Houston Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T17, and 2015 – T11.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Bermuda Championship
The $10K+ Range
- Brendon Todd – Missed the cut
- Will Zalatoris – T16
- Harold Varner III – Missed the cut
The $9K Range
- Kristoffer Ventura – Missed the cut
- Peter Malnati – T21
- Charley Hoffman – Missed the cut
The $8K Range
- Justin Suh – Missed the cut
- Adam Schenk – T26
- Scott Piercy – T14
The $7K Range
- Stewart Cink – T4
- Anirban Lahiri – T11
- Cameron Percy – T26
The $6K Range
- Beau Hossler – T26
- Micahel Gligic – T11
- Vincent Whaley – Missed the cut
