DraftKings NFL Picks Week 8: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

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QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Aaron Rodgers
• PIVOTS: Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill
• PUNTS: Derek Carr, Cam Newton

Aaron Rodgers has already thrashed the Vikings this year and gets them again in Green Bay. The Vikings have struggled with injuries at the cornerback position and this week of practice saw their 3 of their top 4 corners not participating in practice. This is something to keep an eye on, as is the possibility of Lazard returning to bolster Rodgers’ weapons. The OL vs DL chart illustrates that Rodgers is going to have plenty of time to sit back and pick apart this ragged Vikings secondary, again.

The QB position may be the easiest spot for me to whittle down to just a handful of players this week. My dummy build has Joe Burrow in there because of the lack of pass-rush the Titans generate. The Bengals have improved against the run against two teams that consider that part of the game their bread and butter, but will have to take on Derrick Henry in this one. In theory, Derrick Henry is going to shorten the game if he’s getting fed. However, both teams here play at a fast pace and Cincy will play at their fastest pace while trailing by 7+ points, which could be large portions of this game. Cincy also has the edge in average time of possession by nearly 4 minutes and the two teams combine for almost dead even for a full game (60 minutes). My greatest concern with Burrow will be the injuries to his OL. Ryan Tannehill, however, has the best match-up of the slate in regard to the OL vs DL matchups with a combined 4.1% adjusted sack rate. Three out of the last four Bengals opponents have thrown for over 316 yards against them. The matchup is just as good for Tanny as it is for Henry here. And, as Ryan McDowell pointed out on Twitter this week, Tannehill has scored 17 or greater in all but two games since becoming Tennessee’s starter. That’s a terrific floor for a great matchup.

At my annual draft party (a league I commish) where most of us have spent half out lives competing with each other, one of the guys wanted to make a bet that the Raiders would finish as a top 10 offense. My immediate thought was “you’re on!” However, the more we hashed it out, the more likely it seemed that this would be possible. Right now the Raiders are the #9 offense in total yards and #7 in passing yards. They take on a Cleveland team that is allowing the 3rd-most passing yards to opponents while being 5th-most stingy to opposing running games. I cannot remember the last time I wrote up Derek Carr, but here we are. My expectation is this turns out to be a good game with plenty of scoring from both sides. Vegas has implied we’ll see the Raiders score 24.5 points in a close game. Derek Carr has an 8.2 YPA and two 300-yard games under his belt already. With Cleveland allowing 288 per game, another 300-yard game is within reach, as are all three TDs coming via the pass. Cam Newton is the 17th QB by salary this week, so I guess he’s a punt? He’s going to be down Edelman this week and possibly without Harry. It begs the question, how many rushing yards will we see from Cam this week? 100? 200? It also begs the question whether the Pats are going into tank mode with so many injuries. The Pats get a good run blocking OL vs DL matchup here and Cam has the sound bite that he needs to pick his expletive up this week. It’s a dice roll but I want a little exposure just in case this does turn into a ridiculous rushing yards total for Cam.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt
• PIVOTS: Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Darrell Henderson, Melvin Gordon
• PUNTS: Damien Harris, James White

Either Tannehill or Derrick Henry should have a monster game this week, but as we saw in Week 6 it is possible for both to have monster games at the same time. When looking at the OL vs DL matchups in The Workbook, we can see Henry has a top 2 or 3 match-up when considering the 4 categories listed. However, the Bengals have been a bit stingy on the rushing TDs, only allowing 5 on the year and with only 1 out of 7 games giving up more than one. In our Advanced Efficiency Metrics, Henry has 5 breakaway runs this year (tied for 2nd) and is 3rd in yards created per attempt with 2.19. Kareem Hunt barely made it to 19 DK points last week making him a risky “Best Bet”, but he handled 47 of the 49 HB snaps last week in a game where Cleveland ran just 51 plays. Cleveland has run 50 and 51 plays the past two weeks after two games of 71 plays, so there is some more risk in there. However, the OL vs DL chart shows this as a beautiful matchup for Hunt, which is then supported by the standard matchup chart showing the Raiders are allowing a 7.2 boost to RB scoring with an average of 2 rushing TDs allowed per game and a 100% multi-rushing-TD rate. The Raiders go on to allow a league-high 10.2 targets (27.5% share) to RBs. Hopefully, the field was disappointed enough to go light on him this week because he might be my most rostered RB of the main slate again this week.  

The Colts have had a week to self-scout and correct any issues with their flailing running game. They’re in a good spot to get right against a Lions defense that was been getting run over to start the year but have since tightened up. It’ll be a good test for both teams. Are the Colts going to get Jonathan Taylor going and is this new Lions run defense for real? The salary DraftKings price Taylor at seems a bit high which makes him interesting as a pivot. He’s sandwiched right between Hunt and CEH followed by a bunch of injured RBs. Dalvin Cook was able to score 21.8 DK points in the first meeting between these teams this year, before Jefferson asserted himself as a threat to opposing defenses. Cook will still be the focus of the Packer defense (keep an eye on Kirksey’s possible return) and this matchup carries some additional risk (as we saw the first meeting) with Green Bay playing at the slowest total pace on offense and holding the ball for just under 33 minutes per game. The Vikings average TOP is a mere 27.5 minutes per game, which is another red flag, but if we’re looking for a pivot from the higher rostership of Kamara and Henry in some of our builds, then Cook is the next spot down by salary. James Conner makes for an interesting pivot away from the expensive guys as well as the pivots listed here so far. The Ravens have allowed over 130 rushing yards to the three teams they have faced who have committed to run. The Steelers may try some of the same and Conner gets a decent amount of targets and sports a solid 14 point floor over the past 5 games, which just came last week. Conner had scored a TD in 4 straight games before last week making that 14 floor a potential 26 point game if he gets across the goal line twice. Conner has 21 red zone carries (7th) and 7 carries inside the 5 (5th). Darrell Henderson is not a bell cow back, only seeing around 50% of the Rams backfield snaps, but he’s their most explosive runner. The Dolphins are weak at stopping the run around the LT area of the field, which is where Whitworth (5th in PFF run blocking grade) lines up. Coincidentally, the Rams have their most success running the ball to the left side of their line. The Dolphins play pass defense well enough to coax McVay into trying to win this game on the ground and letting his defense get after the Dolphins rookie QB. If they exploit the matchup to the left side on stretch runs with Henderson, he could be in for a big day. Melvin Gordon is seeing strong usage for the price and has one game of 28+ points on his box scores. If Lindsay is unable to play, Gordon should see 20+ carries and 3-4 targets. He’s got the revenge game narrative going for him here as well. The best way for Denver to slow down the Chargers pass rush against their (Denver’s) poor Adjusted Sack Rate (8.2%) will be to run the ball and throw to the RBs. The Chargers are allowing 9.7 targets to RBs per game (25% share).

If Damien Harris‘ ankle is good to go, he makes for an interesting punt down there at $4200. For $300 more, James White might be the Patriots leading receiver this week. These two will likely be tasked with the heavy lifting from the ground and air with Burkhead mixing in to steal touches from both. The way the game sets up would be for New England to take advantage of their edge in the trenches and pound the rock with Cam and Harris, predominately. Being that there are 4 guys involved in this scenario, I may not get down here to scoop one of the RBs but they will be on my radar if I need to squeeze something together.

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Davante Adams
• PIVOTS: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Cole Beasley, Tyreek Hill, Jamison Crowder, Brandon Aiyuk
• PUNTS: T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs, Darnell Mooney

Davante Adams sits at $1300 more than the next WR on the slate (Metcalf) making him a piece you consciously have to build around. Adams is going to force decisions to cut salary elsewhere, probably at RB because if you’re taking Adams, then you’re likely stacking him with $7600 priced Rodgers, eating up a third of the salary cap on DraftKings. Adams rostership will still be high as the field looks at his Week 1 game at Minnesota and his game last week reinforcing his ceiling in these kinds of matchups. I’ll have some exposure but may try to go dry on Adams and look for a cheaper QB.

My assumption is that Jaire Alexander will trail Thielen every where and allow Justin Jefferson to matchup with Josh Jackson or Kevin King (if he’s back). If the idea is that the Packers are going to blow the doors off the Vikings again, then perhaps we’ll need to consider a counter-piece like Jefferson to match that game environment. A.J. Brown has been on a tear since coming back from injury and just hung a 30-burger on the Steelers defense last week while showing off his speed on his 73-yard TD catch. He’s the most explosive weapon in Tannehill’s arsenal and will be the player I’m most likely to stack with him (and/or Jonnu Smith). Cincinnati will probably get WJ3 back at corner this week, but since he only plays one side of the field the Titans will be able to keep Brown away from him if they want to. Each week Josh Allen seems to be relying heavier and heavier on moving the ball down the field through the hands of Cole Beasley. Beasley leads the Bills, and is 15th in the league, with 2.35 yards per route run. With Diggs and Brown likely to face tougher competition on the outsides against Gilmore and Jackson, Allen may look to target his security blanket (Beasley) another 10+ times this week. Tyreek Hill is my Lucy this year. I know, wrong holiday special (we’re in Great Pumpkin season). It’s the Thanksgiving episode where Lucy convinces Charlie Brown to try to kick the field goal and she won’t pull the ball away causing him to whiff and land on his back. Hill is luring me in for another week of $6k pricing in hopes of getting his 40-point game this week. Hill will see the Jets best corner (Poole) in the slot but there’s no one that can run with him if Reid/Bieniemy decide to draw up a Tyreek game plan this week. The focus will be on Le’Veon Bell’s revenge game, but that may not come until later in the game, after the Chiefs jump out to an early lead and put on the cruise control. Jamison Crowder (if healthy) will continue to put in 10+ targets at discount pricing. He’s not an exciting play, just an efficient one. With Deebo out for a couple of weeks, it’s back to Brandon Aiyuk as the 49ers #1 WR. Aiyuk’s second professional game this year came in Week 3 (without Deebo) against the Giants where he caught 5 of 8 targets for 70 yards and ran in a 19-yard TD. Expect a similar role here, as he is considered Deebo-lite on the 49ers. The 49ers are going to move him around to get him into good matchups and he’ll get some of those fly-sweep/push-passes running across the backside of the OL. Another 20+ point game is well within reach against the struggling Seattle secondary. 

With T.Y. Hilton I’m looking for a dead cat bounce. Hilton has never gone this long into the season without a TD and is having a down year, by most standards. The bye week could have given the Colts time to scheme him some extra looks, perhaps some deep shots, or whatever it takes to get him back to where they need him to be in order for the whole offense to benefit from his presence. Just about every WR within a few spots above and below Hilton will attract more attention than he will this week (it’s really a nice group of WRs in there). A.J. Green is still priced too low for his volume and has a terrific matchup again this week against Malcom Butler and the Titans 3rd most friendly defense to outside WRs. Green, like Hilton, has yet to catch a TD this season despite having 6 End-Zone targets (3rd most). All three of Green, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are good plays this week but I like salary savings Green provides and the 5.8% TD per target ratio Green has demonstrated in his career until the injury derailment in 2018. At that rate, Green should have 3 TDs by now. I’m leaning into TD regression coming his way soon. The Raiders have a chance to score a lot of points through the air this week and the two WRs most capable of hitting on deep strikes will be Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs. Agholor may be more heavily rostered than Ruggs due to the discount and recent fantasy scoring output. If I’m using Carr, then I’ll want one or the other of these guys (or both) in that build. Darnell Mooney should see a nice volume spike if Robinson is out. He’s not a bad play even with Robinson is, either. Mooney is showing good route running and is coming down with contested catches as a smaller guy. The Saints defense is great at stopping the run, as if Montgomery was going to get yards anyway, so attacking them with the passing pieces of the Bears will be the way to get exposure to the Bears play form behind action.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Jonnu Smith, Darren Waller, Jimmy Graham
• PIVOTS: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mike Gesicki
• PUNTS: Irv Smith, Harrison Bryant

The Bengals defense has been one of the friendlier environments for opposing TEs to find themselves in this year. Only the Saints and Buffalo are allowing more points to the position on the main slate. If the Bengals attempt to keep A.J. Brown in check it should push volume toward Jonnu Smith, who should have at least 50 yards in this one by looking at what the Bengals have allowed to any other competent TE in 2020. HIs salary of $4100 is usually easy to get to at the position and he may be the best value on the slate. The Browns have had some games where they allowed opposing TEs to run amok against them and they haven’t seen one that gets the volume that Darren Waller yet. Waller leads all TEs with 56 targets so far this year, and he’s already had his bye week. Waller is mostly used in the short areas of the field and has yet to be targeted 20+ downfield but he has 10 Red Zone targets (6th among all pass catchers) and 5 End Zone (3rd for TEs) targets on the year. Jimmy Graham looked like Foles most trusted option after Robinson exited Monday night. The Saints defense is allowing a league-high 9.2 targets (27.6% share) and a 6 point increase to the TE position. Graham also gets a former employer narrative in this one. 

Travis Kelce got his dud game out of the way last week. He should be good for his normal role atop the TE leaderboard this week, along with George Kittle. Bot guys make for interesting pivots this week because there are a few good TE matchups people are going to pay down for, lowering rostership on the two top dogs. The Rams have terrific corners and funnel 9.1 targets per game (25.3% share) to the TE position. The TE can be a rookie’s best friend early in their career and the matchup would dictate this will be the case here. Mike Gesicki will probably go overlooked due to the high price, making him an interesting pivot option in tourneys. 

Irv Smith has two weeks straight of 5 targets, all he needs now is his first TD of 2020. The Packers are solid against the TE position, taking some sparkle out of his matchup, but he’s only $3000 on DK this week. Harrison Bryant made me pay for going 100% Njoku for my Browns TE exposure last week. With OBJ out, it’s going to force more looks his way.  

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Saints, Chiefs
• PIVOTS: Colts, Packers
• PUNTS: Dolphins

The Ravens DST are getting sacks and generating turnovers at an amazing pace this year. This is a tougher matchup with the Steelers but they are always a threat for a defensive or special teams score. Conversely, the Steelers DST are the league leaders in sacks and 10th in takeaways. The Colts DST looks like they’re getting their best player back this week and Detroit’s offense has been pretty average. With the extra week of preparation and Leonard’s return, this looks like a good defense to target in that lower $3k range. If the Packers are able to control the game on offense and force Cousins to beat them, then the Packers DST will be in good shape. Cousins will make mistakes and plays behind a line that has an 8.6% Adjusted Sack Rate. The Rams DST gets to unleash their kraken (Donald) on a rookie QB playing behind a bottom 8 pass blocking line (per PFF grades). Coverage sacks and possible misreads could force some turnovers for the Rams defense. The Dolphins DST will be taking on a talented and creative offense that is coming off a short week, traveling across the country, and the Dolphins have had the extra week (bye week) to prepare for them. This is probably where I’ll land when trying to squeeze in a roster with a cheap defense. The Saints DST should be able to shut down the Bears non-existent running game forcing Foles to throw. This opens up opportunity for sacks and INTs, along with the strong possibility the Bears don’t score many points here. Bah! I finished this write and started working on the player pool and realized I left out what is probably the #1 defense on the slate. The Chiefs DST against Gase’s hapless and injured group could be a multi-sack, multi-turnover, scoreless game for the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There are some players and games that I didn’t get into here where I’m mostly neutral. My hunch in the SF/SEA game is that the score will be lower than where Vegas has it. Too many injuries for these teams to go all out. Seattle will try to put the 49ers behind early but the 49ers defense has held up well through the injuries and have the new CBs playing well, especially Verrett, and even Moseley is in PFF’s top 35 at CB. They might get K’Wuan Williams back in the slot, which is an improvement over Taylor. Tyler Lockett is the best bet for a big game from the Seahawks but I’m not going to bet on it. Gio Bernard looks like he’ll get the lion’s share of the Bengals backfield this week but he was somewhat unimpressive last week and the Titans have tightened up their run defense in recent weeks – and the Bengals OL is hurt. I’d prefer to use the Bengals passing game here, but they also have to deal with those OL issues as well as (possible) negative weather factors. Gio may benefit from the negative weather and see several short area targets. I’ll have to weigh ownership projections for him. He’ll be in my pool, but I don’t consider him a best bet or pivot. The weather in the northern states looks like it could play a role and possibly downgrade some of the picks made above. I’ll be watching that and considering if the weather is that great of an effect to downgrade any “Very-Good” plays in my player pool, or if the lowered ownership due to more fading by the field gives us an edge. Here is the link to my player pool, which is updated until the early games lock. Good luck this week (to all of us) and thanks for reading!